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Old 11-12-2016, 23:16
Leicester_Hunk
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Interesting post seen on a Strictly blog ..........................

I think I've discovered something rather concerning in the voting this week.

I’ve done a bit of working out, given that I know the result (but won’t be sharing it here, don’t worry).

There are 24 possible outcomes of the viewer vote when combined with the judges vote.

We know that one of the competitors must have polled the most viewer votes (thereby getting 4 points), one must have come second (3 points), one came third (2 points) and one competitor must have come last (getting 1 point). An absolute dead heat is technically possible but extremely unlikely.

The way Strictly is scored means that viewer votes carry 50% of the total vote, with judges votes the other 50%.

The viewer vote, like the judges’ vote, ranks the contestants 1 to 4, with 4 being the highest.

Out of 24 possible ways the viewer vote could have ranked contestants, 10 of them can’t have happened, because Sunday night’s result would have been different if they had. So we can discount those 10, which leaves 14 possible ways viewers could have voted to rank the contestants.

Out of those 14 ways, only FOUR produced a ranking which would have led to the actual bottom two we’ll see tonight. The remaining 10 possible ways the viewers could have voted resulted in more than two dancers getting joint lowest scores.

This means that statistically, there’s a more than 70% chance that the result for the bottom two was NOT voted for by viewers, but decided by the BBC.

There are two dancers who, NO MATTER WHAT THEY POLLED, would have ended up either clearly in the bottom two or with an unclear outcome which would, I assume, have left the BBC having to make a decision (outside of the voting process) which dancers were in the dance off.

I note with some scepticism that the dancers who actually DO end up in the bottom two, could not have avoided either a clear dance off slot OR a position where they tied with others for a dance off slot. This is because of how the voting is weighted, and means the judges do have a massive influence on the overall result.

There is no mathematical way that the dancers who end up in the dance off could have been certain to avoid it even if they’d polled the most viewer votes. Even if they’d have polled double, or triple the votes of their nearest rival, they’d both have ended up either in the dance off, or tied for a dance-off place. They couldn’t, in any scenario, have avoided the dance off on viewer votes alone.

Only the two dancers who avoided the dance off ever had a clear chance of avoiding it on viewer votes alone.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:18
karl_kennedy
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Interesting you say?....
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:21
DanielF
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Rubbish I say. Defeats their own point. There were 24 outcomes possible - because what happened drops it so much is irrelevant, since fixing it with a 1 in 6 chance of it being the result you "want" is stupid.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:22
Moany Liza
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Interesting you say?....
As the song goes..."You took the words right out of my mouth..."
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:24
northgirl
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This is very inaccurate and this fix claim is made much more difficult to believe when the judges allowed a tie and thus let the bottom/top to be much closer and because Louise/Claudia were tied!!
Danny must have been 3rd or 4th as if he had been second he would have not been in the dance off and Claudia could not have been top or she would have avoided the dance off, she could have been second and Ore third but definitely not above Louise

Possible public results:
Louise or Ore
Ore or Louise
Claudia or Danny
Danny or Claudia
and
Louise
Claudia
Ore
Danny

Whatever the results with the judges both Claudia and Danny could have avoided the DO by topping the public vote or being second. If Claudia had been top and Danny second then it would have been Louise/Ore DO.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:25
davegold
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This means that statistically, there’s a more than 70% chance that the result for the bottom two was NOT voted for by viewers, but decided by the BBC.
Complete bunkum. Nothing to see here. Move along.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:26
natalian
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I've done some research too and in 10 out of 10 cases where forum members allege a fix, they are talking absolute cobblers.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:28
Moany Liza
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This is very inaccurate and this fix claim is made much more difficult to believe when the judges allowed a tie and thus let the bottom/top to be much closer and because Louise/Claudia were tied!!
Danny must have been 3rd or 4th as if he had been second he would have not been in the dance off and Claudia could not have been top or she would have avoided the dance off, she could have been second and Ore third but definitely not above Louise
So... utter mince then?
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:36
MACTOWIN
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I would rather believe two ex stars of the show who think the judges got it wrong at best than anyone else.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:41
claire2281
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I wish people would learn basic maths before spouting fix claims.
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Old 11-12-2016, 23:42
Monkseal
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No that's mince.

There's 24 possible combinations.

6 of them have Claudia at the top, which can't be true as she was in the dance-off, so remove them, leaving 18.

6 of them have Danny at the top, which can't be true as he was in the dance-off, so remove them, leaving 12

3 of the remaining now have Claudia beating Louise (half of the ones where Ore is top), which can't be true as Louise must have beaten Claudia to avoid the dance-off, so remove them, leaving 9

3 of the remaining now have Danny beating Ore (half of the ones where Louise is top), which can't be true as Ore must have beaten Danny to avoid the dance off, so remove them, leaving 6

1 of the remaining still has Danny beating Louise (another of the ones where Ore is top), which can't be true as Louise must have beaten Danny to avoid the dance off, so remove it, leaving 5

As such, there are only five combinations of the public vote that could have resulted in what we saw at the weekend, not ten. Four of them :

Louise
Ore
Danny
Claudia

Louise
Ore
Claudia
Danny

Ore
Louise
Danny
Claudia

Ore
Louise
Claudia
Danny

have the bottom two with the public being the same bottom 2 as we got. Onlly one of them :

Louise
Claudia
Ore
Danny

differs
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