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Pound/euro |
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#26 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
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Quote:
But we've also had the sovereign debt crisis, particularly in the Eurozone during the post 2008 period and still the pound was averaging the same value suggesting, to me at least, that traders felt the average £/€ rate of 1.16 was about right. Currencies fluctuate constantly and the movements caused by the Brexit vote have been extreme in the short term but overall it's trading about right.
It had been falling since mid last year, it had a brief 6-week upward movement just before the referendum when the markets predicted stability but that was corrected very quickly (and extremely). If you look at the overall trend it's been downward long before the referendum. The decline from 1.40 is all referendum. |
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#27 |
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The simple answer to the OP's question is that is what the media does these days.
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#28 |
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Not that long before the referendum, until just after Cameron had got in on his promise of a referendum and the markets realised the referendum was a real possibility the pound had been on a long term recovery from 2008.
The decline from 1.40 is all referendum. |
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#29 |
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Join Date: May 2008
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They can keep screaming "We're Doomed!" all they like. Each time less and less people believe them. Stands by for the cry of "We haven't left Europe yet". That one is getting a bit dull too.
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#30 |
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Again, not true. The pound had been stable against the Euro, there was no sense of a recovery to it highs of 2005/2006. It had it's peaks and troughs but it was averaging around the 1.16 mark. The referendum was called in mid Feb 2016 when the Euro was trading around the 1.3 mark, significantly down from it's highs of the previous summer. It doesn't change the fact that where it's trading today isn't unusual, it's pretty much where it's been on average for the last 8 years and I don't recall many cries of doom about it during that period.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=EUR&view=10Y that the long term trend from the crash starting in 2007 up until the referendum became likely in mid 2016 was upwards. |
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#31 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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Quote:
They can keep screaming "We're Doomed!" all they like. Each time less and less people believe them. Stands by for the cry of "We haven't left Europe yet". That one is getting a bit dull too.
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#32 |
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Join Date: May 2008
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How did you expect high inflation to start? 10% overnight? In May it was 0.3% now it's 1.2.
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#33 |
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Quote:
You can quite clearly see here:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=EUR&view=10Y that the long term trend from the crash starting in 2007 up until the referendum became likely in mid 2016 was upwards. That graph shows that, just as I've said, the average between 2008 and 2014 is around 1.16 to the pound. It also shows it had a rather decent climb in 2014 but has been declining since mid 2015. Which is, in my opinion, quite normal behaviour for a currency. What part of that graph looks unusual to you? I guess I'm struggling to understand why people think the current exchange rate of 1.19 is newsworthy when it wasn't newsworthy in the previous times it's been at, or below that rate in the 8 previous years?
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#34 |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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Just wait until the day A50 is invoked.
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#35 |
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Quote:
They can keep screaming "We're Doomed!" all they like. Each time less and less people believe them. Stands by for the cry of "We haven't left Europe yet". That one is getting a bit dull too.
Quote:
Just wait until the day A50 is invoked.
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#36 |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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It took 5 posts. You are slipping
I will be proved right. |
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#37 |
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Join Date: Apr 2014
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Quote:
How did you expect high inflation to start? 10% overnight? In May it was 0.3% now it's 1.2.
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#38 |
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,311
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Quote:
Not that long before the referendum, until just after Cameron had got in on his promise of a referendum and the markets realised the referendum was a real possibility the pound had been on a long term recovery from 2008.
The decline from 1.40 is all referendum. |
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#39 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
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Quote:
The government target is 2% which we haven't hit in donkey's years.
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#40 |
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Quote:
It's quite amazing how two people can see something so different in one graph
That graph shows that, just as I've said, the average between 2008 and 2014 is around 1.16 to the pound. It also shows it had a rather decent climb in 2014 but has been declining since mid 2015. Which is, in my opinion, quite normal behaviour for a currency. What part of that graph looks unusual to you? I guess I'm struggling to understand why people think the current exchange rate of 1.19 is newsworthy when it wasn't newsworthy in the previous times it's been at, or below that rate in the 8 previous years?Mid 2015 was when the referendum became likely. And yes, responding to events is normal for a currency, long term rise from 2008 to mid 2015 as the UK economy recovered then decline as shooting itself in the foot became more likely. It's newsworthy because it's against the previous trend. It was newsworthy when it fell to 1.19 in 2008. |
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#41 |
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Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 276
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Quote:
Sneer all you like.
I will be proved right. |
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#42 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
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Quote:
Just to be consistent and head of the predictable argument is actually do not want the pound to go much above the €1.20 rate, if people give it time a devalued pound will help diversify our economy and make it more manufacturing/export driven.
Indeed, I know of a transport company where no one's going to get a pay rise in 2017 because of increased fuel costs resulting from the Brexit vote. Just why does voting Leave = complete economic illiteracy and denial? |
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#43 |
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,311
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Quote:
Nothing except parliament agreeing article 50 will be signed first quarter 2017, the markets price these things in in advance, Brexit was a shock and the market reacted as such, there will now be no more massive shifts over Brexit, the main factors to affect GBPEUR over the next year will all be European risks with many governmental elections etc.
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All times are GMT. The time now is 23:29.



That graph shows that, just as I've said, the average between 2008 and 2014 is around 1.16 to the pound. It also shows it had a rather decent climb in 2014 but has been declining since mid 2015. Which is, in my opinion, quite normal behaviour for a currency. What part of that graph looks unusual to you? I guess I'm struggling to understand why people think the current exchange rate of 1.19 is newsworthy when it wasn't newsworthy in the previous times it's been at, or below that rate in the 8 previous years?