If we accept that the judges' marks on final night are creditable, and that can be a big if for some people, then Louise has a mountain to climb. From what I can tell, for a woman to win Strictly, she MUST have scored highest with the judges, unless there is no man in the final. In contrast, it doesn't matter where a man finishes with the judges, the GBP (which in the case of Strictly has a female voting majority) has on more than one occasion voted enough times to promote someone past the leading scorer on the night.
2005 - Darren Gough, last with the judges
2008 - Tom Chambers, last by several points with the judges
2009 - Chris Hollins, last of two in the judges scores
2012 - Louis Smith, equal second with the judges, admittedly only a point behind
2015 - Jay Mcguinness, last with the judges.

Natasha, Jill, Alesha, Kara and Caroline all top scored in the final. Zoe, Rachel and Lisa, Denise, Natalie and Kellie all top scored but failed to win.

In contrast, only Mark and Harry have won and also been the judges' choice. Ricky is the only man to have top scored and not won, but that was the only all-male final.

The only female to have won Strictly without being top scorer was Abbey, which coincidentally (or not?) was the only all-female final.

My conclusion (rightly or wrongly) is that in a final, the men have a huge advantage due to the demographic of Strictly voters being female in the majority. A female celebrity needs not only to score best with the judges, she must also appeal to women more then the leading men of the series.

Hence, Louise has a mountain to climb - if she doesn't score highest with the judges, she has to appeal to the voting public in a way that no female celeb has managed previously. I'd like to see her do it, as in the words of Brucie 'she's my favourite'.

Really interesting post. However, I'd like to amend your Thread title to:

For those who can't bear the thought of Louise and Kevin winning - grow up

^^^^
This

I thought this too, I'm 99% sure that in Kevin's first year with Susanna Reid, they were last with the judges in the semi final and still made it to the final, being one of the only couples not to have been in the dance off and they didn't win, so there is hope!

I can imagine the reaction on here if Louise and Kevin win:
"Louise is so boring - why did she win?"
"The producers have finally got what they wanted now Kevin's won."

It's a real shame that some people are like this.

They were second last overall. S&K's second dance of the night was the lowest scoring of the night, but overall they were one point above Patrick Robinson & Anya Garnis.

After the first final cut off they were bottom but weren't eliminated.

[quote=norbit;84890037]


My thoughts exactly. I've said this a few times on here, but part of me wants Louise to win just to witness the forum meltdown.

She was one of my faves, but I don't think she is the right winner, yet she has never ever been in the bottom two!

No one seems to have noticed this or commented that I can see
She is very likely to win, don't forget Chris and Ricky Whittle

Exactly!

A really fascinating look at the stats- and now that you've rattled my feminist cage, I will be less irritated if she wins.

I like Louise but I haven't really loved any of her dancing. Her Samba was boring. For me, she wouldn't be the right winner but I have accepted that she will win. If by some miracle her and Kevin don't win, Kevin still has to have a duffer next year.

It might have been boring, but with all that fruit on her head it was definitely healthy.

Do you mean in the last section of the final? In the first part of Kara's final she didn't top score, Pamela did then got voted out first.

Lol, indeed.

I disagree. Even if the voting demographic is female, we have two males in the three people final and the votes will split, so the only female is more likely to win.
We have never had a 2males and 1 female in 3 people final but reverse has happened and that year Simon ( the only male) should have won it, but who knows why the public didn't vote for him??. This year's final has a few similarities to 2012.

Am I right in thinking that you have never commented on a winner that they didn't deserve to win or someone else deserved to win??.

Yes, I was looking at the final as a whole. However, you are quite right, Kara didn't top score at halfway - BUT, it was Matt who benefitted from the halfway vote, being bottom of the three. So it was yet another case of a male celeb getting the votes he needed to win or in this case carry on to the end at the expense of a female celeb.

It should be mentioned that the following year, there was actually a case of a female celeb ousting a male celeb through votes alone. At the halfway stage in the final, the judges scores put Jason and Harry in the top two places, but Chelsee received enough support to take her place at the final stage instead of Jason. This seems to be the only precedent that suggests Louise actually being able to win on Sat, unless of course she top scores with the judges in such a manner that she's considered by the GBP to be a worthier winner than the men. Back to my statement of Louise having a mountain to climb to win.

Since the start of four-dancer finals in 2012, the only man to be voted off before the final dances was Mark Wright. I would suggest that in his case, as well as Dani and Katie, the GBP culled the person who was perceived as the weakest dancer of the final, though I'm not sure if that exactly applied to Sophie.

I'm not really sure what this means though, as Louise has already got more votes than at least Danny and Claudia in the semi, despite being scored joint bottom. The likelihood is she got more votes than Ore as well. I think it's very unlikely she will be bottom of the leaderboard in the final anyway - she had two dances that didn't suit her on Saturday but in the final I would expect her to end up at least above Ore on the leaderboard.

interesting thread and stats

How the votes are split between the two males in the final is an interesting point, and does throw doubt over any theory. The only two possible cases I can think of actually give a split decision of their own! Although it wasn't a 3 person final all the way through, 2011 was two males and one female at the beginning, and the female, Chelsee as explained in an earlier post, survived to be one of the last two, perhaps benefitting from a split male vote. However, back in 2005, there was a 3 dancer final, one female and two males, and in that, both the men, Colin and Darren, finished above Zoe, back in the days when second and third places were declared. In a 3 dancer final, the only female came last with the public, the only way she could have finished last overall, since she top scored with the judges, also back in the day when judges' scores counted in the final in the usual way they do up to the final.

Isn't part of the constituency just as likely to vote for the pro as the celeb?

That's the lovely thing about theories - working them out in the first place to reveal a possible pattern, and then trying to work out if what has gone on in the past is truly relevant to the situation facing us. What you have written about possible support just adds to the mix, and one has to try and balance up as much as the evidence as possible. If a conclusion seems to appear before your eyes, then it's a quick look at the bookies odds, and seeing whether you have 'seen' something they haven't, if you're that way inclined.

I think that the better Louise dances on Sat, the better her chance. As long as the GBP haven't taken against anyone in particular, and I don't think they have with the 3 remaining celebs this year, then good dancing will garner more votes than it does in earlier rounds.

Great op if however they do win it will be a bloodfest on here lol, its great to read some of the views of different people and really some posters are geniuses (sp) in there creativity and really give me a good chuckle!

Absolutely!!

I have commented that Zoe and Ian should've won in their year, and that Chris Hollins shouldn't have won in his. That is because in the former case Zoe was the better dancer and in the latter Chris was far and away the worse dancer.

Louise is a very good dancer - at least as good a Danny. The people who don't want to see her win to the point where they need to 'take heart' are biased against her for reasons other than her dancing, or so it seems to me.

Yah. ☺️

Ore is my winner regardless so I don't really care who wins in the grand scheme of things, does anyone really?