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Free trade deal with post Brexit UK is top priority for new Trump Commerce Secretary
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Dotheboyshall
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Maybe they will change the A in Nafta from American to Atlantic!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...donald-trumps/”

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
LostFool
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dotheboyshall:
“Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership”

Or Trump's Transatlantic Income Program.
DocumentaryFan
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“Or Trump's Transatlantic Income Program.”

Indeed. Some people forget that free trade agreements are relatively easy to negotiate if the junior partner is so desperate for a deal that it's willing to make all sort of concessions. A more balanced free trade deal takes time, effort, and clout. (And acting alone, the UK, with a population of just 65 million, will always have far less clout than the United States or the European Union.)
Jayceef1
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by DocumentaryFan:
“Indeed. Some people forget that free trade agreements are relatively easy to negotiate if the junior partner is so desperate for a deal that it's willing to make all sort of concessions. A more balanced free trade deal takes time, effort, and clout. (And acting alone, the UK, with a population of just 65 million, will always have far less clout than the United States or the European Union.)”

Yet Australia with a population of 23 million managed to get a deal with the USA in 15 months. Go figure.
LostFool
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“Yet Australia with a population of 23 million managed to get a deal with the USA in 15 months. Go figure.”

An analysis of how successful that deal has been:
http://insidestory.org.au/the-costs-...t-with-america
DocumentaryFan
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“Yet Australia with a population of 23 million managed to get a deal with the USA in 15 months. Go figure.”

There was considerable opposition to that arrangement within Australia because it was seen to benefit primarily the U.S. As I said, getting a free agreement is not difficult as long as the junior partner is willing to make concessions to the senior partner.

Also, Australian exports are based primarily on agricultural goods and raw materials, making it a very different case than the UK. But even with that in mind:

"Estimates also suggest trade between Australia and the United States fell in association with the implementation of AUSFTA - also after controlling for country-specific factors.[20] Shiro Armstrong also concludes Australia and the United States reduced their trade with the rest of the world by US$53 billion and are worse off than they would have been without the agreement.[21]"

(Studies cited on Wikipedia)
Jayceef1
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“An analysis of how successful that deal has been:
http://insidestory.org.au/the-costs-...t-with-america”

There is nothing to say that any current deal would not be better than that. Just that with the right motivation it can be done in a timely manner. As opposed to never with the EU.
skp20040
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“The major proviso of course is that the UK cannot even open negotiations with the US until it has fully exited the EU. Will Trump's administration be even still in place by the time that happens? Going by some of the reports this week, the UK could well still be in the EU in November 2020 when the next Presidential election is underway.”

They cannot have official negotiations or sign anything , that does not prevent unofficial talks with everything ready for when they can talk.

Mind you if we all listen to Cecilia Malmstrom the EU Commissioner the UK cannot negotiate anything at all with the EU until we leave , which goes against everything other EU leaders have said and is not what Article 50(2) states , the whole point of the 2 year period is to negotiate exit and future relationship, Ms Malmstroms colleagues have basically told her to keep quiet , as she obviously has no clue

Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Maybe they will change the A in Nafta from American to Atlantic!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...donald-trumps/”

There was talk of a TAFTA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transa...ree_Trade_Area
Forza Ferrari
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“The major proviso of course is that the UK cannot even open negotiations with the US until it has fully exited the EU. Will Trump's administration be even still in place by the time that happens? Going by some of the reports this week, the UK could well still be in the EU in November 2020 when the next Presidential election is underway.”

Yes there is that for one thing.

Then due to his schizophrenia Trump will be offering us a free trade deal with one hand and telling the population of the states to only buy American with the other.

You do wonder what we have to sell america.

Trump definitely doesn't want a free trade deal with china who manufacturer approx everything. So he's forming a FTA with those guys who don't have much to sell anyway.
D_Mcd4
18-12-2016
Originally Posted by thenetworkbabe:
“Indeed it protects us from cheap Labour economies, protects access to a large european domestic market, and gets us better trade deals, than we can get with our own, weaker, bargaining power.

I miss Australian Cheddar , but its a small gain for worse access to a market thats vastly bigger. is like losing a fiver, and finding 20p down the sofa.

And anyone who thinks a protectionist Trump is going to give anyone a decent trade deal , should really be buying rare , historic, 19 bob notes.”


Yes, seeing as Trump's whole campaign was about protectionist policies and having things made in America again by Americans it's a bit bizarre to imagine he'll be favourable towards another country (that's not Russia).
i4u
18-12-2016
Trump has already said he will renegotiate or tear up the NAFTA agreement, thus indicating he would willingly renegade on a deal.

I could see Trump & the traitor Farage cooking up some deal in favour of the UK in an attempt to break up or damage the EU. But as Liam Fox accepted today a damaged EU is bad for the UK.

As has been seen in Scotland Trump can be very vindictive, (water cut off, huge piles of earth dumped next to a house) against those who oppose him. Can Trump be trusted not to sign a deal one day and tear it up the next?
Eurostar
19-12-2016
Originally Posted by i4u:
“Trump has already said he will renegotiate or tear up the NAFTA agreement, thus indicating he would willingly renegade on a deal.

I could see Trump & the traitor Farage cooking up some deal in favour of the UK in an attempt to break up or damage the EU. But as Liam Fox accepted today a damaged EU is bad for the UK.

As has been seen in Scotland Trump can be very vindictive, (water cut off, huge piles of earth dumped next to a house) against those who oppose him. Can Trump be trusted not to sign a deal one day and tear it up the next?”

Very good points. Trump is extremely volatile and one wonders if he can be trusted on anything. A populist like Farage has no problem hanging off his coat tails but I imagine May and her ministers are rather wary of Trump (I'd say most EU leaders are and so they should be).
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