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What's going on in Ireland?


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Old 19-12-2016, 00:09
Eurostar
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Not true at all. The signs were there for a long time. Particularly in housing. Yet your government stupidly gave the tools to control it away by signing up to the Euro.
They seriously underestimated just how dangerous the property bubble was and how exposed the banks were (not realising until the very last moment they were on the verge of collapse). The assumption from most people - government ministers, civil servants, economists - was that there would be a "soft landing" and a very mild recession.

It wasn't the Euro that caused the crash : it was absolutely reckless lending by the banks who towards the end were fraudulently cooking the books and telling lies to anyone who asked plus non existent regulation of the banks by the financial regulator. Government ministers couldn't stop the crash from coming as they weren't aware the economy was about to go over a cliff (they themselves were asleep at the wheel).

The Irish banking inquiry found that :

it was no single individual, it was no single institution and it was no single decision. It was the compound outcome of many years [of bad policies and mistakes], it wasn't a conspiracy in a darkened room..........banks were allowed to breach lending limits with impunity, which threatened the stability of the financial system, and regulators adopted a "light touch" approach that enabled the mortgage bubble and the ensuing crash.
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Old 19-12-2016, 00:38
irishfeen
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If only the rest of the world would try and live in peace and enjoy themselves like us Irish do the there would be far less atrocities inflicted on mankind!

Wouldn't it be grand to go for few pints instead
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Old 19-12-2016, 01:05
MTUK1
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If only the rest of the world would try and live in peace and enjoy themselves like us Irish do the there would be far less atrocities inflicted on mankind!

Wouldn't it be grand to go for few pints instead
Yep, nothing like a few pints of Guinness to forget you've given up your countries sovereignty.
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Old 19-12-2016, 05:38
kidspud
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Yep, nothing like a few pints of Guinness to forget you've given up your countries sovereignty.
I'm amazed this poster continue to get away with such obvious trolling.
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Old 19-12-2016, 07:22
sorcha_healy27
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Yep, nothing like a few pints of Guinness to forget you've given up your countries sovereignty.
Just because the British are anti EU doesn't mean that everyone else has to be.

Stop commenting on a subject you know nothing about.
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Old 19-12-2016, 10:45
MTUK1
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Just because the British are anti EU doesn't mean that everyone else has to be.

Stop commenting on a subject you know nothing about.
Lol. I believe in self governing nations, so that means I know nothing?
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Old 19-12-2016, 13:13
BrokenArrow
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But a few years ago the Irish economy was a basket case, even looking to the UK to borrow money for them. I'd really like to know how they've turned it around.
They did it by dumping their unemployed on the UK and other countries and enticeing global conglomarates to set up shop in Dublin with dodgey tax incentives.
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Old 19-12-2016, 13:25
Cheetah666
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They did it by dumping their unemployed on the UK and other countries and enticeing global conglomarates to set up shop in Dublin with dodgey tax incentives.
No we didn't. Our corporate tax regime didn't change during the recession/recovery and most of the people who emigrated from Ireland after the crash left jobs to emigrate to other jobs.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:07
mRebel
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[quote=Cheetah666;84916310]So what? Nobody's alleging that those people are oppressed. My post was in response to someone painting the Greeks as toiling under oppression from the EU, whereas in reality they have more control over their fate than Brexit supporters admit.[/QUOTE]

They do?
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:10
mRebel
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That's what happens when a country needs a bailout.
Greece wasn't bailed out, the banks who bought it's bonds were. Greece got the bill.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:12
mRebel
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One of whose most notable characteristics is their indifference to democracy.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:20
mRebel
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It would be incorrect to claim that Ireland's membership of the Euro caused the financial crash. The economy started dangerously overheating for a variety of reasons and the financial regulator was grossly negligent in not spotting what was happening inside the banks. The key thing about the crash is that virtually nobody saw it coming or deduced that the economy was about to go over the edge of a cliff. It's not as if the Irish government knew what was coming down the tracks but was hidebound by the rules of the Eurozone : the crisis happened in a matter of days.
I did. Not because I have great knowledge of such matters, but because I saw what happened in the UK when a property bubble occurred in the eighties. When I saw the much greater bubble in Ireland after it joined the euro, I knew beyond all doubt that the country was going to take a big financial hit, sooner or later. If I could see it, why couldn't the bankers? Answer is they did, but they were making fortunes and correctly anticipated that when the bubble burst someone else would be given the bill for the mess they'd created.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:22
mRebel
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Need I point out how the recent changes on buy-to-let here have made such investments much less attractive than they were? These are expected to impact our domestic property market, so clearly setting our own interest rates is not the be all and end all of controlling property prices.

If the Bank Governor warned of a problematic property bubble then the Irish Government had the warning they needed to take action AND they had the taxation tools to alter investment in the property market. If they did not, they bear responsibility for their own inactions and its consequences.

The whole point of the "bailouts" was so that the countries effected could continue spending money that they wouldn't have been able to borrow in their absence. That is a Keynesian boost to their economies.

And clearly the countries concerned prefer to continue with the Euro rather than embrace the supposedly "better" alternative. That's obviously their democratic choice.
Drastic cuts to government spending and tax rises is Keynesian?
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:26
mRebel
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They shouldn't have been let in, but they're not innocent in that situation either.
Are the Irish innocent? I'd say they are, but you give the impression you consider them guilty.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:29
Cheetah666
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Are the Irish innocent? I'd say they are, but you give the impression you consider them guilty.
The comment you've quoted is about Greece cooking the books to be let into to the euro. Ireland didn't cook the books to be let into the eurozone, so yes the Irish are innocent.
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Old 19-12-2016, 23:29
mRebel
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If only the rest of the world would try and live in peace and enjoy themselves like us Irish do the there would be far less atrocities inflicted on mankind!

Wouldn't it be grand to go for few pints instead
If only bankers had done that!
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:02
outof thepark
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So what? Nobody's alleging that those people are oppressed. My post was in response to someone painting the Greeks as toiling under oppression from the EU, whereas in reality they have more control over their fate than Brexit supporters admit.
Totally agree, but you know people want to paint a picture, and the Greeks were seen and demonised not so long ago as tax evading, lazy wastrels, but now they are being are being put up there as the poor Greeks look what the EU has done.
I have no time for these sound bites and people who use them to make a point., totally self absorbed , the UK and it's goverment and the the people who voted brexit, and even those that wanted to remain don't give a a stuff about Greece. And never have.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:28
gizza_gazza
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I don't have any score pointing agenda here - I'd honestly just like to understand the sudden transformation of the Irish economy from a broken one which was supposed to last for generations to the vibrant one I've recently witnessed. Nobody has actually answered this to my understanding, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to draw my own conclusion, which is that they've managed to put the debt on the back burner. Please feel free to disagree with me, because I really don't know whether I'm right or wrong, but to my mind it's the only answer which fits. All I saw was a lot of people spending a lot of money, but I couldn't figure out where that money was coming from. And, yes, all of you in the UK, the same accusation could equally apply.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:33
Eurostar
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I did. Not because I have great knowledge of such matters, but because I saw what happened in the UK when a property bubble occurred in the eighties. When I saw the much greater bubble in Ireland after it joined the euro, I knew beyond all doubt that the country was going to take a big financial hit, sooner or later. If I could see it, why couldn't the bankers? Answer is they did, but they were making fortunes and correctly anticipated that when the bubble burst someone else would be given the bill for the mess they'd created.
There were a few people like yourself who spotted where it was heading, such as the economist David McWilliams for example who publicly warned several years before the crash that the property bubble could only end extremely badly.

But to say that Ireland joining the Euro caused the financial crash would be simplistic and misleading. There were a load of factors at work including bad decisions and mistakes by politicians, failures of the regulatory authorities and reckless and sometimes even criminal behaviour by the banks. The whole thing was effectively a giant Ponzi Scheme of people lending money to each other.

Ireland joining the Euro was merely a factor or one trigger among several others. The Euro didn't cause so many people to make terrible errors of judgement, be they politicians, civil servants, bankers or anyone else. Much of the worst aspects of the financial crash could have been allayed if only people in power had called a halt in time and spotted that the economy was heading over a cliff.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:41
Kiteview
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Drastic cuts to government spending and tax rises is Keynesian?
The cuts and tax rises would have been much, much worse without the "bailout" monies that the governments were loaned. They would not have been able to continue their spending at the levels they did without those loans.

A government spending money at such artificial levels during times of economic difficulties is Keynesian (as is the flip side of a government saving a national surplus - or failing that paying down national debt rapidly - during economic good times. Unfortunately, the latter Keynesian idea is largely theoretical in practice which is why governments are never as free to borrow during economic difficulties as they should be).
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:48
gizza_gazza
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There were a few people like yourself who spotted where it was heading, such as the economist David McWilliams for example who publicly warned several years before the crash that the property bubble could only end extremely badly.

But to say that Ireland joining the Euro caused the financial crash would be simplistic and misleading. There were a load of factors at work including bad decisions and mistakes by politicians, failures of the regulatory authorities and reckless and sometimes even criminal behaviour by the banks. The whole thing was effectively a giant Ponzi Scheme of people lending money to each other.

Ireland joining the Euro was merely a factor or one trigger among several others. The Euro didn't cause so many people to make terrible errors of judgement, be they politicians, civil servants, bankers or anyone else. Much of the worst aspects of the financial crash could have been allayed if only people in power had called a halt in time and spotted that the economy was heading over a cliff.
Sorry to be posting so much tonight, but surely being in the EuroZone was a major factor, because once Ireland had joined it the government was powerless to act in its own economic best interests to respond to the situation? It wasn't like they could bring in any monetary control.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:52
MTUK1
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Sorry to be posting so much tonight, but surely being in the EuroZone was a major factor, because once Ireland had joined it the government was powerless to act in its own economic best interests to respond to the situation? It wasn't like they could bring in any monetary control.
Absolutely.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:53
Eurostar
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I don't have any score pointing agenda here - I'd honestly just like to understand the sudden transformation of the Irish economy from a broken one which was supposed to last for generations to the vibrant one I've recently witnessed. Nobody has actually answered this to my understanding, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to draw my own conclusion, which is that they've managed to put the debt on the back burner. Please feel free to disagree with me, because I really don't know whether I'm right or wrong, but to my mind it's the only answer which fits. All I saw was a lot of people spending a lot of money, but I couldn't figure out where that money was coming from. And, yes, all of you in the UK, the same accusation could equally apply.
While the recession was bad and prolonged, it was nowhere near as catastrophic as what happened in Greece for example. One very important point is that the Irish economy wasn't a basket case one before the financial crash in 08-09, it had been very stable and healthy for many years, the fundamentals were all solid and was therefore in a good position to recover from something like a sudden financial crash and snap recession.
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:53
Kiteview
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I don't have any score pointing agenda here - I'd honestly just like to understand the sudden transformation of the Irish economy from a broken one which was supposed to last for generations to the vibrant one I've recently witnessed. Nobody has actually answered this to my understanding, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to draw my own conclusion, which is that they've managed to put the debt on the back burner. Please feel free to disagree with me, because I really don't know whether I'm right or wrong, but to my mind it's the only answer which fits. All I saw was a lot of people spending a lot of money, but I couldn't figure out where that money was coming from. And, yes, all of you in the UK, the same accusation could equally apply.
Presumably it is a combination of an improving global economy benefiting investment generally (and also investment into Ireland), getting their debt situation under control (in the sense that no one believes it is an immediate crisis but rather a day-to-day issue that will be dealt with the debt - either paid off or rolled over - in due course) and the stable political situation (there are unlikely to be any nasty surprises there and investors can safely assume they will remain part of the EU and using the Euro).
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Old 20-12-2016, 00:55
MTUK1
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I don't have any score pointing agenda here - I'd honestly just like to understand the sudden transformation of the Irish economy from a broken one which was supposed to last for generations to the vibrant one I've recently witnessed. Nobody has actually answered this to my understanding, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to draw my own conclusion, which is that they've managed to put the debt on the back burner. Please feel free to disagree with me, because I really don't know whether I'm right or wrong, but to my mind it's the only answer which fits. All I saw was a lot of people spending a lot of money, but I couldn't figure out where that money was coming from. And, yes, all of you in the UK, the same accusation could equally apply.
All they've done is kick the can down the road. Just like the Eurozone has with Southern Europe. There will be an unsolvable crisis eventually that will break it up. You can never have Athens and Madrid in the same currency union as Berlin and Amsterdam.
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