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BREXIT: The flight of capital has begun


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Old 18-12-2016, 12:15
TheEngineer
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http://uk.businessinsider.com/how-br...conomy-2016-12

To hear the Leavers tell it, Britain is about to embark on a glorious future of worldwide free trade. The EU will be forced to deal with us because we'll just be so great at everything once our EU shackles are off. The rest of the world just can't resist: That's why sales of British gin have now gone over £1 billion annually. That's why Nissan — which exports 55% of the cars it makes in Sunderland to Europe — is staying in the UK.

But companies aren't romantics. They don't dream of a plucky island nation showing the Brusselcrats what destiny looks like.

All over Britain right now there are manufacturing firms looking at their margins shrinking as sterling declines, just like Rivington. There are banks wondering if it is worth staying in a country that won't be able to clear euro-currency trades. Why stick around to find out whether Hammond can get a deal done for the City? Move to Berlin right now and at least you know for sure that your passporting access to trillions in euro derivative trades, by Reuters' estimate, won't be interrupted.

Hammond was being refreshingly honest there when he said it was a "binary" decision: "If they have full access to the markets from London they can continue operating as now. If they don’t, they will have to restructure the way their operations address the European market," he said.

This is more than anecdotal.
This is the future reality of Brexit. Less investment. Fewer companies. And fewer workers for fewer jobs.

We haven't felt the full force of the referendum decision yet. But be sure, as we have said before, it is on its way.
No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:19
hufflestuff
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Well you've decided the topic of the thread and what the responses will be. Therefore the only responses that are deemed acceptable will be those that agree with you. Good job!
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:22
TheEngineer
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Well you've decided the topic of the thread and what the responses will be. Therefore the only responses that are deemed acceptable will be those that agree with you. Good job!
I am always happy to hear well reasoned arguments against any given position, backed up by facts.

The problem is that there are precious few of them from the Brexit side.
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:26
Doctor_Wibble
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How about the Pissedoffwiththepartisanismists? Do any of us get a look-in? I know there's a roughly 50-50 mix of ex-Remain and ex-Leave people who want it done with a minimum of fuss and without undue haste and may wish to comment on the constant stream of 'wondering if'* crap without someone saying 'how dare you criticise, you must be the enemy'.





* that's a quote from the article, I didn't bother counting the 'could's, not much point.
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:28
John146
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No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.
Don't worry it will soon be March and Mrs May will trigger A50
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:33
Miasima Goria
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Don't worry it will soon be March and Mrs May will trigger A50
And then we will watch the fun and games.
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:34
John146
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And then we will watch the fun and games.
Well yes, I am sure as are a lot of people that there will be some uncertainty for quite a while.
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Old 18-12-2016, 12:42
allaorta
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No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.
lalala.
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Old 18-12-2016, 13:49
Nodger
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I am always happy to hear well reasoned arguments against any given position, backed up by facts.

The problem is that there are precious few of them from the Brexit side.
BIB: No you are not and when that does happen which is fairly often from several FMs suddenly you go AWOL until you've finished trawling the net for the next episode of Groundhog Day. Considering this undeniability the only further comments I have to offer this thread are lalalalala, Brexit hasn't happen yet and shouldn't you get over the result and move on.

(pay key attention to the word 'only' in the above)
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Old 18-12-2016, 14:03
Mr Oleo Strut
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No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.


Quietly, like snowflakes remorselessly falling on a sterile winter landscape, capital and businesses are slipping away from sterling and the U.K. It is inevitable that will happen. The world of business has no emotion, and no amount of Brexit wind, waffle, spin and lies is going to cover up the enormity of the referendum folly. What an utter catastrophe!
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Old 18-12-2016, 14:10
Morlock
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Industries should be queuing up to invest in making Great Britain great, the United Kingdom united. We are having a red, white and blue brexit, so what's not to like?

If we all do the right thing and get on, I'm sure God will see us through if we pray together. Amen.
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Old 18-12-2016, 21:38
mRebel
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I am always happy to hear well reasoned arguments against any given position, backed up by facts.

The problem is that there are precious few of them from the Brexit side.
Try this. It's an 'expert' speculating, and we know how unreliable these experts are.
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Old 18-12-2016, 21:54
skp20040
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No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.
I wonder if you or the experts can explain re Rivingtons , if this is all down to Brexit were they experiencing some kind of practice run when they needed financial assistance in 2002, 2004, 2007 and is Brexit also to blame for their losses in recent years before any vote and when its revenues were falling before and the company called it "portfolio optimisation" was that all anticipating Brexit before we even knew about a vote ?
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Old 18-12-2016, 22:20
Mark_Jones9
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No doubt we will get more of:

"lalala I'm not listening"

or

"you lost get over it"

or

"but we haven't left the EU yet"

from the Brexiteers as they try and deny the reality of what is happening.
The evidence of capital flight is not compelling.
A biscuit company that was losing money long before the referendum goes under blaming increased cost of raw materials due to the fall in the £ and inability to increase the price of its biscuits.
Banks intending to move a small number of their London based jobs to other EU nations to maintain access to the single market in the event there is no UK EU deal.

The counter evidence
Many companies announcing large investments in the UK.
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Old 19-12-2016, 08:53
TheEngineer
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The evidence of capital flight is not compelling.
A biscuit company that was losing money long before the referendum goes under blaming increased cost of raw materials due to the fall in the £ and inability to increase the price of its biscuits.
Banks intending to move a small number of their London based jobs to other EU nations to maintain access to the single market in the event there is no UK EU deal.

The counter evidence
Many companies announcing large investments in the UK.
So when a bank announces it is moving then it is a "small number of London jobs", yet when Mcdonalds announces it is moving a small number of jobs to the UK it is a "major investment"?
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Old 19-12-2016, 09:33
trevgo
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Try this. It's an 'expert' speculating, and we know how unreliable these experts are.
And you're not an expert. So I prefer to listen to them as they know what they're talking about.

As opposed to Brexiters, who haven't the faintest idea what they're talking about. As they will come to realise over the coming months and years.
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Old 19-12-2016, 09:54
Radiomike
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So when a bank announces it is moving then it is a "small number of London jobs", yet when Mcdonalds announces it is moving a small number of jobs to the UK it is a "major investment"?
Which banks have actually announced they are moving, or transferring any staff (as opposed to considering it) - given your obsession with others providing "facts"?

Do you deny that there have been announcements since Brexit that constitute major investments in the UK? Who mentioned McDonalds anyway - their announcement referred to moving their non US tax base here. May still amount to a decent amount of additional tax revenue though.

Also I see that your choice of title thread is once again an exaggeration as it is based on speculation rather than fact so far as any "capital flight" is concerned.

I'd be more interested to hear you put up a defence of the current state of the EU or the Eurozone economies given everything that is happening there.
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Old 19-12-2016, 09:55
Talma
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And you're not an expert. So I prefer to listen to them as they know what they're talking about.

As opposed to Brexiters, who haven't the faintest idea what they're talking about. As they will come to realise over the coming months and years.
Your problem is, as always, that 'experts' sometimes disagree, if they all know what they're talking about, which do you choose to believe and why?
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Old 19-12-2016, 10:04
BrokenArrow
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Sombody should tell them the pound is the same against the EURO as it was in 2012, then they may realise how retarded they are being.
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Old 19-12-2016, 10:23
Mark_Jones9
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So when a bank announces it is moving then it is a "small number of London jobs", yet when Mcdonalds announces it is moving a small number of jobs to the UK it is a "major investment"?
Why have you misquoted me?
I posted
"small number of their London based jobs"
"large investments"

Banks have announced they are or are planning to move the operations needed to maintain access to the single market as a precaution in case there is no UK EU deal. They have not announced they are moving their entire London operations abroad. It's only a small number of their London based jobs moving to other EU nations. Their main base of operations will continue to be London.

McDonald's has announced it is moving its international HQ to London and along with it its international tax base. McDonald's has also announced its opening hundreds of new shops in the UK. Creating many thousands of jobs in the UK. McDonald's are also only one of the many businesses that have announced large investments in the UK since the referendum.
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Old 19-12-2016, 10:25
Pandorian
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Maybe somebody should tell Lidl.

Lidl plans to invest £1.5 bn over three years on expanding its store and logistics network to 1,500 stores despite Brexit. It currently trades from 640.

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/...70m-london-hq/
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Old 19-12-2016, 10:28
jmclaugh
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I thought it was going to be about a new airline. (rolleyes)
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Old 19-12-2016, 12:32
TheEngineer
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Great, more McJobs.

No offence to McDonalds but how many people that work for them make it a long term career?

How many McDonalds part-time jobs (let's say 16 hours per week) would it take to replace the govenment tax take from one bank job on (say) £100,000 per annum?

As for Lidl, it is not as if we have a lack of supermarkets. The chances are any net jobs increase will be small as they impact other supermarkets / local shops. Again, the jobs are not well paid.
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Old 19-12-2016, 12:51
Doctor_Wibble
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Great, more McJobs.
Why? Not fancy enough? Too low-paid? Not skilled enough? Are you brave enough to show this contempt when you are served by someone of that 'class'? It's not surprising there's often trouble recruiting for the less-fancy jobs when it's clear they are held in such splendidly high regard. Enjoy a well-deserved Baldrick Cappuccino next time you are in.

No offence to McDonalds but how many people that work for them make it a long term career?
Did you try counting the managers? That would make for an easy approximation. and wouldn't even need you to expend any effort on the sneering condescension.
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Old 19-12-2016, 12:55
MargMck
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Great, more McJobs.

No offence to McDonalds but how many people that work for them make it a long term career?

How many McDonalds part-time jobs (let's say 16 hours per week) would it take to replace the govenment tax take from one bank job on (say) £100,000 per annum?

As for Lidl, it is not as if we have a lack of supermarkets. The chances are any net jobs increase will be small as they impact other supermarkets / local shops. Again, the jobs are not well paid.
Shame about your unrelenting misery.
Here's the thing - starter jobs lead to the best getting promoted or leaving to climb the career ladder elsewhere.
As for people leaving top end bank type jobs - if they are worthy of the position they and other skilled entrepreneurial types will find new roles or start new businesses of their own as wealth creators.
This may be here or in other countries,and if they leave others (already here or attracted by opportunities) will replace them .It's always been the way.
And trying to define everything and everyone within Brexit terms (X happens because of Brexit, Y happens in spite of Brexit but must be knocked in any case) is a ridiculously narrow focus.
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