Mrs May and her government must complete Brexit by the May 2020 general election.

If she doesn’t, then Brexit will be a live election campaign issue. This time around, voters will have a clear understanding of the ongoing negotiation process, the risk of failure and the choice of exit outcomes. All UK political parties will need to channel these voter concerns into their own manifestos and campaign strategies.

To complete Brexit before the May 2020 general election, Mrs May and her government must be convinced that they can complete Article 50 divorce settlement and an agreement on future trading arrangements with the EU. Domestically, Mrs May’s government will need to prepare for and devote resources to a new regulatory system for UK.

The outlook is far from promising. Mrs May and government have failed to agree a Brexit policy among themselves or communicate a process to anyone. Inappropriate comments by some Brexit ministers may have compromised good will with the rest of the EU. Good will is needed for the UK’s orderly departure from the EU. The rest of the EU will play hard ball. They’ll offer a deal which won’t make the UK any better off. But they won’t inflict chaos on us: the EU will watch Mrs May and government inflict chaos on the UK.

By May 2020, Mrs May and her government need to:
- Completed multiple negotiations with the EU or divorce and future trading arrangements
- Arranged and agree membership of the World Trade Organisation, Liam Fox ongoing work is concerning
- Where needed, established a domestic regulatory regime for UK business and consumers
- Finalise the Great Repeal Act with a satisfactory post-EU legal framework

She could walk away from exit negotiations with the EU and make a clean break. Storming out of negotiations in Brussels will play well to UK voters and make great headlines for some British newspapers. But does her government have the expertise, time and resources to ensure everything is in place for that eventuality ? This is Mrs May’s all or nothing gamble. Will it work ?

Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March 2017.

Formal negotiations will begin and will last for about two years.

We will leave the EU.

She will know that if she makes a mess of Brexit and/or appears to be backsliding, the door will be open to UKIP and she will face the prospect of a coalition - with UKIP.
UKIP will insist on full Brexit in any event. So, she may as well activitate Brexit to the satisfaction of UKIP supporters now, rather than risk 5 years of coalition

She wont be doing the negotiations, her negotiation team will do the job.

There is no logical reason to suppose that there is the remotest possibility of a coalition with UKIP who have precisely one seat in the HOC.

Or UKIP will hurt the Tory vote in a number of seats so the Lib Dems end up as the coalition partner and we remain in the EU. This is what seems to be scaring the Brexiteers at the moment.

Considering the legal challenges to determine if Article 50 can be reversed / cancelled will most likely impact the use (or not) of the RP to trigger Article 50 I think there is some considerable doubt as to it being triggered at the end of March.

LibDems don't have the power to force this country to remain in the EU.
Their tactic is to seize an issue, any issue (this time it's Brexit), and hope to resurrect themselves as a party. If they can get a few seats out of that issue, they'll be satisfied.

But, they will not be a candidate for coalition with the Tories if they are going to hinder Brexit. And, no other party will get enough seats to seriously challenge for power (Labour will not be in power for a very long time, particularly as they have lost Scotland).

There are a lot of Tory MP's who back remain and being "forced" into a coalition with the Lib Dems would give them the excuse they need to ignore the referendum vote.

The other alternative would be an alliance between Labour, the Lib Dems and The Scots Nats. Again, I can't see that resulting in Brexit.

We do, as they say, live in interesting times.

In practical terms, exactly what do you expect to happen: timescales, new trading arrangements, WTO membership, ratification process, regulatory environment.

Bluster and generalisations need to be replaced with process, details, outcomes and consequences, please.

Its pretty obvious by the onishambles so far that brexit arguments will still be rumbling on by 2020. I doubt very much the we will have actually exited by then, but even if we have it will be just the start of the process and there will be all sorts of arguments going on about trade, sovereignty, immigration etc etc.

I'm in too minds about it. I obviously don't want the country to suffer, but at the same time the larger the cockup continues to grow the more chance there is of a change of government from the parade of self serving incompetent arsehats we have at the moment..

I expect the negotiators to start negotiating in Spring 2017. I have no idea what the EU response will be or how long it will take ( and neither does anyone else) but it will happen.

With regret, your commentary appears as an article of faith rather a statement of intent.

Time is running out. Mrs May has a duty of care to all UK citizens to explain how her government's decisions are going to shape our future.

Well according to the EU they want article 50 triggered asap, 18 months max of talks, leaving 6 months for the UK and EU to ratify it. So even if A50 wasn't triggered until early 2018, we'd still be out before the next general election on that timescale.

Basically there's a year to spare.

Our nation is being hung out to dry by fools without a plan. Mrs May does not have either the experience or strength of character for the job, nor do the gang of deadbeats with whom she has surrounded herself. It will all end in tears. The vultures are circling already.

As well as establishing a domestic UK regulatory framework and membership of the WTO finalised, realistically, do you think that's possible ?

Well unless the latest court case proves otherwise we have no choice. Once the A50 trigger is pulled we have 2 years. That's it we're out.

As for a UK regulatory framework, well we will just be using the same rules/laws as we have now, then slowly repealing the ones we don't like. WTO, I can't see any problem.

How can she do that now for heaven's sake? She has no idea how the negotiations will go and no one can tell what any nation's economic future will be because all sorts of unexpected events will happen in the future.

Time is not running out it goes on forever.

Labour/ScotNat/Libdem coalition?

LibDem = no Brexit.
Labour = Brexit.
Scot Nat = no Brexit.

SO, there's no consensus there for a Remain coalition.

If Labour goes into 2020 GE saying it now opposes Brexit, it will be badly hit and lose votes to UKIP, maybe even to Tories.
Labour would definitely lose seats under the weight of being pro-Remain and having Corbyn as leader. I can't see them losing many to LibDems, more likely it will split the defectors between LibDem and UKIP. Then, the Tories would clean up and win big time.
Tories could mess up on Brexit, but they seem determined to press on and to get it well established before 2020.
Brexit as an election issue is only valid if Labour ditch Corbyn and become a pro-EU party. Can you see that happening? I can't.

And this is where the problems really begin for Mrs May and her government. Will she be tempted to ask the EU for a transitional arrangement after the UK's departure ? Or 'grandfathering' existing trading rights ? She needs to risk manage concessions to avoid voter betrayal, while maintaining goodwill keeping her options open. She needs to be certain that the UK is fully prepared for an exit without any agreement.


The Great Repeal Bill will deliver a legal framework after the UK's departure. It will also be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the current and future UK governments to abuse their power by profligate use of statutory instruments, rather than parliamentary legislative process.

The Great Repeal Bill will not cover any new domestic regulatory environment. Medicine, veterinary procedures, airline airworthy certificates and many other activities will all require UK regulatory bodies for approval and licencing. The government needs to provide reassure to consumers and businesses that manpower and resources are now being provided for these regulatory issues.


Dr Liam Fox is currently working on the necessary trade schedules which allow UK individual admission to the WTO. He's copied all these schedules from existing EU global trading arrangements. But he's going to have to work with the EU, if he's to successfully extract UK schedules from the existing EU ones. Tariffs should be ok, but apportioning quotas will be tricky. Dr Fox has squandered goodwill and may find EU objections when the WTO review his trade schedules. Remember: the UK's exit from the EU also requires the EU to update their own WTO schedules.

The UK can trade without WTO regulatory cover. But we're exposed to litigation and aggressive trade practices from other countries. My concern is China.

Correct. Universally, time is goes on forever. But Mrs May faces a key deadline: the May 2020 general election. She needs a Brexit deal which convinces enough UK voters that the UK has left the EU.

But she will face multiple critics: UK businesses looking for certainty, UKIP looking for traditional Tory voters and media attention, some but not all opposition MPs and difficult Tory backbenchers who will turn economic uncertainty into a political gain. And here I'm thinking of George Osborne. He may be discredited. But he's vocal and strategic. Unlike David Cameron, he's still an MP.

A prospect almost too delicious to contemplate.

I don't think I would ever stop laughing.

Lib Dems are finished.

How the hell are the Lib Dems finished?

Unlike you I do not have time to devote to endlessly speculating about what might happen in the future.

I am patient. I will wait and see what happens and comment then.

She has to decide when, and how, to force the immigration issue. its her red line because it has to be politically - with the key UKIP, Labour and Tory voters wanting it

If its still all undecided by 2020, she can force Labour to decide between Corbyn or Burnham's immigration position. , and watch as Labour implodes, on immigration and defence, if Corbyn is till alive and leading it.

If she can get the public to back her on that , she then only has to promise she will get the best deal then possible . Voters on the right will be being reassured by Boris and the 2 amigos. Voters who prefer closer ties and economic benefits will have to convince themselves that they can over-rule the majority - on immigration and brexit, and that the Remain parties wouldn't be a disaster otherwise. If there's no deal by 2020, she may get the benefit of the doubt how it will turn out - more so than if its a bad deal , and the Leave voters blame her for the, inevitable, consequences of their vote.

Her possibly bigger problem, is how to find 20 billion more for the NHS by then , when Brexit is reducing government income by more.