Unfortunately, I think the Lib Dems will grow to be the second most popular political party after the 2020 election. Everyone who voted to remain in the EU, everyone who hates Jeremy Corbyn, everyone who hates the Tories and would prefer a centre-left wing government or opposition will be considering the Lib Dems.

Tim Farron is very different to Nick Clegg which will rejuvenate the Lib Dems.

Fair comment. imo.

I dont think anyone hates Corbyn. Think he is incompetent maybe, but hate? It would be like hating a puppy.

Back to the OP, it could actually be very interesting going into a GE without brexit having had happened. You would have Tories for hard brexit, Labour for soft brexit and Lib Dems for remain. It could completely shake up some of even the safest seats, which could only be a good thing.

It is just like disliking a two faced self-serving politician, not too difficult.

I don't understand the premise of this thread. Surely once article 50 is triggered, we're out of the EU within two years, whatever the state of play.

Theresa May will be trading on comments like the above.

Nigel Farage was able to use emotion appeal, vulgar patriotism and meaningless optimism to manipulate vulnerable voters. So Mrs May should be able to do the same in May 2020. All she needs to do is convince enough voters that the UK has left the EU.

Voters want easy answers, British media want villans and Mrs May wants to blame everyone else but herself. Her prospects for winning the May 2020 general election look promising.

To Liam Fox out of the EU used to mean no transitional period, no single market, no custom union, no payments to the EU.

But on Sunday he was talking of a half in, half out the EU....which may not go down with Trump's puppet Nigel Farage.

The government has said it wants to keep all options open....in 2019 not being a member of the EU may not be the same as being out of the EU.

well yes , but we may not be in anything else, and we may still be in it while we wait to finalise what out of it looks like.

May's only real requirement is to remove ECJ jurisdiction, find some form of immigration control, and formally leave the EU. She can do most of that, and claim some savings on EU payments by 2020.

I have to say that is a well thought out and reasoned post, which I think sums up the current and potential situation beautifully.


Vulnerable voters? WTF?

Are you telling me those who voted leave didn't know what they were doing or voting for?

I have yet to come across and person who voted leave as vulnerable.....granted my Grandparents are a bit frail but they ain't fried in the head and they ain't vulnerable.

The bollox you speak is just another way for privileged metropolitan elite to hold one over those who "made the wrong choice". I'm not vulnerable, I made a choice and I stick by it, which is more than can be said for the LibDems who apparently support A50 but don't support Brexit.

I am sick of the minority of remainers lauding it over the rest of us, treating us like shit on their shoe. Accept the damn result, we are leaving the EU, end of!

The Tories will win the next election whatever they do.
It really doesn't matter because, thanks to Corbyn, the boundary changes and the right wing press, their is no viable alternative.
Despite winning their referendum Tory supporters seem more paranoid than ever and their really is no need for it because the UK is less likely to elect Corbyn than they were with the last 2 failed Labour leaders.

I think you need to practice what you preach. You know nothing of the poster and spouting out nonsense about the elite when many who wanted to leave the EU were also part of the elite. I think leave voters need to realise that not everybody who voted remain was part of the metropolitan elite. Also to be fair on the poster they were talking about UKIP voters not all those that voted leave.

The only thing the LibDems have as a policy is remaining in the EU and that policy is a last desperate bid on their part to give people a reason to vote for them.
Once we are out of the EU, there will be no other reason to vote LibDem.
I mean, what else do they stand for?

Farron is just an opportunist who sees a potential 48% of the electorate who may be willing to vote for him.

That's correct.

Not all leave voters are vulnerable (that is say: open to manipulation, gullible and easily mislead). Not all of Mr Farage's audience are vulnerable. It's just that Mr Farage was able to connect with vulnerable voters.


Agreed.

You could say the same for just about every other political party? And you don't know what the future holds. Leaving the EU may not go well which would give some more reason to vote Lib Dem. Also add in the fact that you could end up with a situation like the Iraq war where the Lib Dems are the only major party to be fully against a policy that is unpopular with voters.

Neither of you seem able to give a direct answer; perhaps you can't face the prospect of being out.

No matter what she does she will alienate half the country, but I suspect much like Nigel Farage, she is going to try to please everyone but in doing so will actually not please anyone if that makes sense and make herself unelectable.

The General Election will be massive especially with Trump across the Bond. He wants his own person in the hotseat and he wants Brexit as badly as the majority in this country. It's going to boil over sooner or later !!

That is part of the point of (one of) the legal cases being argued at the moment.

If Article 50 can not be cancelled once triggered and Parliament have to vote on the deal then you could end up in a deadlock. The EU refuse to discuss the arrangements until the UK trigger Article 50 and Parliament refuses to trigger Article 50 until they know what deal we will get with the EU.

Is this a joke? How the hell has Nigel Farage tried to please everyone? He is one of the most decisive politicians in recent times.

Well I'll concede it's the best answer so far but it doesn't address the question nor the existing reality that once A50 is triggered, two years later our membership will cease. There is nothing that says we can unilaterally decide to pull out of the trigger, not in our law or EU law.

They only pick up the votes of disenfranchised, they are at present in their rightful place and position in the polls. No more than a used condom on the floor of UK politics.

I meant like Farage said, May will do that.

Sorry

All this is assuming the public are still 52/48 in favour of leave by 2020. What happens, politically, if the mood swings considerably in the next couple of years against Brexit? OK, many on here would rather have a sex-change than change their minds about leave/remain, but politics is volatile and two, well, three, options remain (pun intended)
Either - voters are furious that Brexit isn't quick enough/hard enough and vote en masse for UKIP
or
voters find that Brexit isn't gonna be the promised land, it will take years and years to fulfill and it's beginning to hit in the pocket and they voted for it half-heartedly anyway, and will turn to a party which will stop it in it's tracks
or
They simply couldn't be arsed.
Who knows? But the 48% could quickly become 60% (and vice-versa, of course) and swing a GE - and the Tory majority nothing but a distant dream.

So how the hell are they finished then?

Loads of things, just like most other parties.

This is my concern, too.

To everyone's relief (including mine), the post-referendum economy is fairing well. There's job security and negligible or manageable price rises.

The only concerns so far are the OBR's downgrading of UK economic growth and deteriorating public finances. Neither of these will have an immediate impact on voters.

But if the UK government fail to reach an transitional/trade agreement with the rest of the EU in the months leading up to the UK's exit, there's a risk of a hard and chaotic Brexit. Theresa May and her government will need to manage public concerns and assure us all, that there's nothing to worry about. But if she loses credibility, she loses support.

The 3 months prior to the UK's first day out of the EU are going to be socially and politically lively. And possibly matched by growing economic uncertainty.

What if....

Prior to exit, Mrs May screws up negotiations leading to voter and business panic. Facing a squeeze from the LibDems and UKIP, the Tories panic. With George Osborne providing an increasingly convincing alternative strategy, the Tories do a 'Margaret Thatcher' and dump Mrs May. Unlikely, but not impossible.