First test of Corbyn's 'massive' mandate and popularity in a Lab-Con marginal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-by-election/

First test of May's mandate and popularity in a Lab-Con marginal.

Not looking good for Labour.

Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.

Quitting mid term unless dead or dying tends not to go down well with the electorate.

I doubt any of them could find Copeland on a map.

Still, I'm looking forward to the photo shoots with them walking around the area in their (newly bought) wellies.

Here's one... https://www.google.com/maps/place/48...77778?hl=en-US

Clearly they have mass immigration problems with all those poor Canadians continually trying to cross the border which is a few miles to the north. Strong U$IP country.....

Oh, this one is going to be interesting.

It comes as the latest poll found that just one in five members of the public believe that the Labour leader will enjoy a successful 2017.

An Ipsos MORI poll for the London Evening Standard revealed that just 21 per cent of people believe Mr Corbyn will have a "good year."

Sadiq Khan, enjoying popularity as London Mayor, received a vote of confidence from 58 per cent of the public, rising to 73 per cent of Londoners.

A total of 51 per cent of people think that Theresa May will have a positive year.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI said: "Theresa May and Sadiq Khan stand out, although both outperform their parties – by a long way in the case of Labour.

"A week is a long time in politics, and a year even more so, especially with Brexit on the horizon, but Labour has a long way to go to win back the confidence of the public."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-by-election/

Yes, and I note that it's 'next door' to a place called Good Grief - handy for when Emily starts captioning her photos for Twitter.

Meanwhile, an interesting byelection at last - it was the rise of UKIP which stopped the Tories from taking it from Labour in 2015.

Do The Police need a new drummer now then?

I doubt they could find the north of England on a map. Anti nuclear London-centric Labour leadership campaigning in a northern constituency where a lot of people work in the nuclear industry.
Good luck.

Mathematically, if the disenfranchised LAB/Tory remain voters in a strong leave area DID go to the Libdems, even though they only got around three votes at the General, and the rest of the votes was split three ways (Lab/Tory/Ukip) we could have an interesting result either way.

If I were Farron I'd be looking to more than double the number of votes from the GE (even if it doesn't get the member elected) - Tory voters fed up with Mexit, Labour supporters fed up with Jexit.....

Well that would rely on all remain voters in Copeland feeling very strongly they had been disenfranchised. That's unlikely. Surely many, particularly the Tories who see a chance to take a Labour seat, will have settled for the referendum result now and probably like May. Unlike many of us on here, not everyone is twisted in knots over the EU issue.
The dilemma might be for UKIP-voting ex Labour...

It's been Labour for over 30 years, their last win with a 6.5% lead over the Tories, a margin which has been narrowing since 1997. Potential for an upset.

Can't see Labour losing this if they stand a good local candidate - and don't parachute in someone from Islington.

Copeland is one of those seats that would vote for a monkey so long as it had a red rosette but by election upsets happen occasionally.
That said I expect Sellafield will have suffered from public spending cuts so the government might not be that popular either.

I wonder if we might get more of these byelections where Labour currently hold what are realistically now marginals if the national opinion polls of recent months are half right on the Tory lead?
Maybe three or four Lab MPs 'fall on their swords' as they know they would go if a GE came up, and have good private sector work lined up.
Losing in such places could push Corbyn out, one might think.

Tony Blair to return as candidate?

You have been at Trevgo's Christmas sherry, surely?
Imagine Corbyn out on the doorsteps campaigning for that!

Perfect chance for Balls.

I can see all three Stoke seats being vulnerable. They used to be rock solid Labour. The combined UKIP-Tory vote was higher than Labour's in 2015 and Labour is even less popular now.

Copeland:

23,528 Leave
14,419 Remain

Tricky one for Labour but could be a blessing in disguise seeing this guy seemed more of a Blairite and dosen't like Corbyn. They just need to put forward a local candidate who openly respects the brexit vote and want to make it go as smoothly as possible and hopefully they should be ok.

The Tories wouldn't?