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Copeland by-election |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,704
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Copeland by-election
First test of Corbyn's 'massive' mandate and popularity in a Lab-Con marginal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-by-election/
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#2 |
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Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,328
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First test of May's mandate and popularity in a Lab-Con marginal.
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#3 |
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
First test of Corbyn's 'massive' mandate and popularity in a Lab-Con marginal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-by-election/
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#4 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Onchan, Isle of Man
Posts: 1,672
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Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.
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#5 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,328
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Quote:
Not looking good for Labour.
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#6 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 59,746
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Quote:
Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.
Still, I'm looking forward to the photo shoots with them walking around the area in their (newly bought) wellies. |
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#7 |
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Gtr Manchester UK
Posts: 7,951
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Quote:
I doubt any of them could find Copeland on a map.
Clearly they have mass immigration problems with all those poor Canadians continually trying to cross the border which is a few miles to the north. Strong U$IP country.....
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#8 |
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,863
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Oh, this one is going to be interesting.
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#9 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.
An Ipsos MORI poll for the London Evening Standard revealed that just 21 per cent of people believe Mr Corbyn will have a "good year." Sadiq Khan, enjoying popularity as London Mayor, received a vote of confidence from 58 per cent of the public, rising to 73 per cent of Londoners. A total of 51 per cent of people think that Theresa May will have a positive year. Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI said: "Theresa May and Sadiq Khan stand out, although both outperform their parties – by a long way in the case of Labour. "A week is a long time in politics, and a year even more so, especially with Brexit on the horizon, but Labour has a long way to go to win back the confidence of the public." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-by-election/ |
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#10 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
Here's one... https://www.google.com/maps/place/48...77778?hl=en-US
Clearly they have mass immigration problems with all those poor Canadians continually trying to cross the border which is a few miles to the north. Strong U$IP country..... ![]() Meanwhile, an interesting byelection at last - it was the rise of UKIP which stopped the Tories from taking it from Labour in 2015. |
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#11 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Stratford-upon-Avon
Posts: 2,659
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Do The Police need a new drummer now then?
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#12 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,344
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Quote:
I doubt any of them could find Copeland on a map.
Good luck. |
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#13 |
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Gtr Manchester UK
Posts: 7,951
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Yes, and I note that it's 'next door' to a place called Good Grief - handy for when Emily starts captioning her photos for Twitter.
Meanwhile, an interesting byelection at last - it was the rise of UKIP which stopped the Tories from taking it from Labour in 2015. If I were Farron I'd be looking to more than double the number of votes from the GE (even if it doesn't get the member elected) - Tory voters fed up with Mexit, Labour supporters fed up with Jexit..... |
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#14 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
Mathematically, if the disenfranchised LAB/Tory remain voters in a strong leave area DID go to the Libdems, even though they only got around three votes at the General, and the rest of the votes was split three ways (Lab/Tory/Ukip) we could have an interesting result either way.
If I were Farron I'd be looking to more than double the number of votes from the GE (even if it doesn't get the member elected) - Tory voters fed up with Mexit, Labour supporters fed up with Jexit..... ![]() , not everyone is twisted in knots over the EU issue.The dilemma might be for UKIP-voting ex Labour... |
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#15 |
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Station Eleven
Posts: 3,492
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It's been Labour for over 30 years, their last win with a 6.5% lead over the Tories, a margin which has been narrowing since 1997. Potential for an upset.
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#16 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Can't see Labour losing this if they stand a good local candidate - and don't parachute in someone from Islington.
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#17 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 350
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Copeland is one of those seats that would vote for a monkey so long as it had a red rosette but by election upsets happen occasionally.
That said I expect Sellafield will have suffered from public spending cuts so the government might not be that popular either. |
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#18 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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I wonder if we might get more of these byelections where Labour currently hold what are realistically now marginals if the national opinion polls of recent months are half right on the Tory lead?
Maybe three or four Lab MPs 'fall on their swords' as they know they would go if a GE came up, and have good private sector work lined up. Losing in such places could push Corbyn out, one might think. |
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#19 |
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Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,064
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Tony Blair to return as candidate?
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#20 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
Tony Blair to return as candidate?
![]() ![]() ![]() You have been at Trevgo's Christmas sherry, surely?Imagine Corbyn out on the doorsteps campaigning for that! |
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#21 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Station Eleven
Posts: 3,492
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Perfect chance for Balls.
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#22 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: North Wales..Near Chester, UK
Posts: 2,028
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I can see all three Stoke seats being vulnerable. They used to be rock solid Labour. The combined UKIP-Tory vote was higher than Labour's in 2015 and Labour is even less popular now.
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#23 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Station Eleven
Posts: 3,492
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Copeland:
23,528 Leave 14,419 Remain |
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#24 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Essex
Posts: 1,290
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Tricky one for Labour but could be a blessing in disguise seeing this guy seemed more of a Blairite and dosen't like Corbyn. They just need to put forward a local candidate who openly respects the brexit vote and want to make it go as smoothly as possible and hopefully they should be ok.
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#25 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,328
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Quote:
Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.
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