Well that'll ensure a Labour loss then.

Anecdotally, that's normally the case.

But this one will be interesting, especially as UKIP are likely to be targeting Labour voters in the North.

They could always not vote, happily that's still an option these days!

The previous M.P. had been in the seat for years and had built up a following. Voters might be unhappy that a Johnny Come Lately ups and walks out of the seat in such a short time. Then there is the Remain Leave issue and Corbyn's views on Sellafield..

I expect the Tory campaign will be to chauffeur Jezza & co to the area every day of the campaign.

A bus voters to meet them.

Judging by the comments Jamie Reed has been getting on twitter, they don't need to bother. Lots of corbynistas attacking him for daring to have a different viewpoint from the Dear Leader.

I bet Corbyn has his team already tasked to work out the excuses for Labour losing the seat.

Probably not, they could well have a packed in-tray with masterpieces on somewhere like Venezuela to grapple with.

Corby's not the Messiah. He's a Very Naughty Boy.

""Today, Venezuela is a place of mass despair. Street protests occur at any time and without warning. They can be peaceful or turn violent. The homicide rate has also skyrocketed, highlighting the social turmoil and the inability of the authorities to stop criminal activity.

Despite a crumbling government, Mr. Maduro persists in keeping the remains of chavismo afloat. But by now he should admit that his system is not viable. In fact, it is doomed.""

That's socialism for you.

Bet you there are one or two or a few with offshore accounts though.

This is 30th on the Tories target list and a swing of over 3.2% would be enough to gain the seat, but that said, this one could go either way and there's potential for a third party to gain some votes for a strong third place...but I don't see UKIP being the party to achieve that, no matter how much the media are trying to still make them relevant.

UKIP could manage to entice enough Labour voters to enable a Tory victory.

Given what's happing in politics, any of the four largest parties could be in contention so I cannot predict what the outcome of this by-election will be.

Will there be tactical voting in play? Mabey the lib dems will sit this one out? Mabey even UKIP.

If there's going to be a large protest factor, it might even turn out be a Lib Dem vs. UKIP contest which I would welcome since the two largest establishment parties have let this country down so much when they've been in power and they fully both deserved to be trashed at the polls.

Based on what the leave/remain percentages were in this constituency I'd say Labour are in massive trouble.

I take your point but not convinced by either of these parties in their current state either to be honest.

locals/by-elections are not predictive of national elections.

the blairites arent that popular .. so we'll have to see who the ppc will be and what anti labour alliances form

First betting odds from William Hill
5/4 Conservatives; 6/4 Labour; 4/1 UKIP; 12/1 Lib Dem; 66/1 Green Party

I think 3 June 1982 was the last time a governing party gained a seat in a by-election (Angela Rumbold in Mitcham & Morden).

It's possible but governing parties don't usually do well in by-elections in marginals, and UKIP must fancy their chances.

Given the upset that occurred in Richmond Park and the election of a new UKIP leader, this contest is potentially wide open particularly when taking account the volatile nature of the electorate these past few months.

That's right. And Labour haven't lost a by-election for a seat they had previously held since Bradford West in 2012 to Respect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...nt_gains_seats

So, conventional wisdom would point to Labour holding the seat but there's aren't conventional times.

Jamie Reed is everything that Corbynistas hate - centrist, pro-nuclear, northern(!), and from what I've seen, a damn fine constituency politician who's done a lot to help his constituents, who pushed for improving local amenities and a hospital.

Can you realistically see Momentum (or Corbyn) allowing anyone with a similar background being nominated? They'll put someone slightly more acceptable to them up as candidate, and then see the seat go to the tories.