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Copeland by-election
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mossy2103
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Liete:
“Could be a tough one. Corbyn and the full Islington set of Abbott, Thornberry, McDonnel etc might have to hold their noses and head north to campaign.”

Well that'll ensure a Labour loss then.
mossy2103
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dotheboyshall:
“Quitting mid term unless dead or dying tends not to go down well with the electorate.”

Anecdotally, that's normally the case.

But this one will be interesting, especially as UKIP are likely to be targeting Labour voters in the North.
howard h
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Well that would rely on all remain voters in Copeland feeling very strongly they had been disenfranchised. That's unlikely. Surely many, particularly the Tories who see a chance to take a Labour seat, will have settled for the referendum result now and probably like May. Unlike many of us on here, not everyone is twisted in knots over the EU issue.
The dilemma might be for UKIP-voting ex Labour...”

They could always not vote, happily that's still an option these days!
Annsyre
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by shaddler:
“It's been Labour for over 30 years, their last win with a 6.5% lead over the Tories, a margin which has been narrowing since 1997. Potential for an upset.”

The previous M.P. had been in the seat for years and had built up a following. Voters might be unhappy that a Johnny Come Lately ups and walks out of the seat in such a short time. Then there is the Remain Leave issue and Corbyn's views on Sellafield..
Dog_Bot
21-12-2016
I expect the Tory campaign will be to chauffeur Jezza & co to the area every day of the campaign.
Pemblechook
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“I expect the Tory campaign will be to chauffeur Jezza & co to the area every day of the campaign.”


A bus voters to meet them.
Dingbat
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“I expect the Tory campaign will be to chauffeur Jezza & co to the area every day of the campaign.”

Judging by the comments Jamie Reed has been getting on twitter, they don't need to bother. Lots of corbynistas attacking him for daring to have a different viewpoint from the Dear Leader.

I bet Corbyn has his team already tasked to work out the excuses for Labour losing the seat.
MargMck
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dingbat:
“Judging by the comments Jamie Reed has been getting on twitter, they don't need to bother. Lots of corbynistas attacking him for daring to have a different viewpoint from the Dear Leader.

I bet Corbyn has his team already tasked to work out the excuses for Labour losing the seat.”

Probably not, they could well have a packed in-tray with masterpieces on somewhere like Venezuela to grapple with.
Pemblechook
21-12-2016
Corby's not the Messiah. He's a Very Naughty Boy.
Pemblechook
21-12-2016
""Today, Venezuela is a place of mass despair. Street protests occur at any time and without warning. They can be peaceful or turn violent. The homicide rate has also skyrocketed, highlighting the social turmoil and the inability of the authorities to stop criminal activity.

Despite a crumbling government, Mr. Maduro persists in keeping the remains of chavismo afloat. But by now he should admit that his system is not viable. In fact, it is doomed.""
Annsyre
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Pemblechook:
“""Today, Venezuela is a place of mass despair. Street protests occur at any time and without warning. They can be peaceful or turn violent. The homicide rate has also skyrocketed, highlighting the social turmoil and the inability of the authorities to stop criminal activity.

Despite a crumbling government, Mr. Maduro persists in keeping the remains of chavismo afloat. But by now he should admit that his system is not viable. In fact, it is doomed.""”

That's socialism for you.

Bet you there are one or two or a few with offshore accounts though.
Soppyfan
21-12-2016
This is 30th on the Tories target list and a swing of over 3.2% would be enough to gain the seat, but that said, this one could go either way and there's potential for a third party to gain some votes for a strong third place...but I don't see UKIP being the party to achieve that, no matter how much the media are trying to still make them relevant.
mossy2103
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Soppyfan:
“This is 30th on the Tories target list and a swing of over 3.2% would be enough to gain the seat, but that said, this one could go either way and there's potential for a third party to gain some votes for a strong third place...but I don't see UKIP being the party to achieve that, no matter how much the media are trying to still make them relevant.”

UKIP could manage to entice enough Labour voters to enable a Tory victory.
TelevisionUser
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by blueisthecolour:
“Oh, this one is going to be interesting.”

Given what's happing in politics, any of the four largest parties could be in contention so I cannot predict what the outcome of this by-election will be.
gallag
21-12-2016
Will there be tactical voting in play? Mabey the lib dems will sit this one out? Mabey even UKIP.
TelevisionUser
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by gallag:
“Will there be tactical voting in play? Mabey the lib dems will sit this one out? Mabey even UKIP.”

If there's going to be a large protest factor, it might even turn out be a Lib Dem vs. UKIP contest which I would welcome since the two largest establishment parties have let this country down so much when they've been in power and they fully both deserved to be trashed at the polls.
MattXfactor
21-12-2016
Based on what the leave/remain percentages were in this constituency I'd say Labour are in massive trouble.
MattXfactor
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by TelevisionUser:
“If there's going to be a large protest factor, it might even turn out be a Lib Dem vs. UKIP contest which I would welcome since the two largest establishment parties have let this country down so much when they've been in power and they fully both deserved to be trashed at the polls.”

I take your point but not convinced by either of these parties in their current state either to be honest.
soma_
21-12-2016
locals/by-elections are not predictive of national elections.

the blairites arent that popular .. so we'll have to see who the ppc will be and what anti labour alliances form
MargMck
21-12-2016
First betting odds from William Hill
5/4 Conservatives; 6/4 Labour; 4/1 UKIP; 12/1 Lib Dem; 66/1 Green Party
SouthCity
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by Soppyfan:
“This is 30th on the Tories target list and a swing of over 3.2% would be enough to gain the seat, but that said, this one could go either way and there's potential for a third party to gain some votes for a strong third place...but I don't see UKIP being the party to achieve that, no matter how much the media are trying to still make them relevant.”

I think 3 June 1982 was the last time a governing party gained a seat in a by-election (Angela Rumbold in Mitcham & Morden).

It's possible but governing parties don't usually do well in by-elections in marginals, and UKIP must fancy their chances.
TelevisionUser
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“I take your point but not convinced by either of these parties in their current state either to be honest.”

Given the upset that occurred in Richmond Park and the election of a new UKIP leader, this contest is potentially wide open particularly when taking account the volatile nature of the electorate these past few months.
LostFool
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by SouthCity:
“I think 3 June 1982 was the last time a governing party gained a seat in a by-election (Angela Rumbold in Mitcham & Morden).”

That's right. And Labour haven't lost a by-election for a seat they had previously held since Bradford West in 2012 to Respect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...nt_gains_seats

So, conventional wisdom would point to Labour holding the seat but there's aren't conventional times.
Dingbat
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“That's right. And Labour haven't lost a by-election for a seat they had previously held since Bradford West in 2012 to Respect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...nt_gains_seats

So, conventional wisdom would point to Labour holding the seat but there's aren't conventional times.”

Jamie Reed is everything that Corbynistas hate - centrist, pro-nuclear, northern(!), and from what I've seen, a damn fine constituency politician who's done a lot to help his constituents, who pushed for improving local amenities and a hospital.

Can you realistically see Momentum (or Corbyn) allowing anyone with a similar background being nominated? They'll put someone slightly more acceptable to them up as candidate, and then see the seat go to the tories.
Annsyre
21-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“First betting odds from William Hill
5/4 Conservatives; 6/4 Labour; 4/1 UKIP; 12/1 Lib Dem; 66/1 Green Party”

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