My view. Copeland is traditionally a Lab+Cons marginal seat. Both the tories and labour will be throwing all the resources possible at it
i) To retain/re-gain it.
ii) To stem the flow of voters leaking towards Ukip.

With a 60 odd % leave factor, I would postulate the conservatives will take it and Tim Farron should butt the hell out.

It will be interesting to see what candidates the parties put up. The good folk of Cumbria aren't the sort to appreciate someone parachuted in from Westminster School of Policy Wonks.

I think this seat is destined to be scrapped under the boundary review. Will someone want it for three years?

Just to be clear I wasn't criticising their chances in this seat, just that I don't think either party would do much (if any) more than the two major parties if in power.

If you like big bets I'd be absolutely lumping on the tories right now.

Yes, if the Tories select Tarquin the merchant banker from Bromley and if Labour pick Neil with a PhD in Marxist orthodoxy from Notting Hill then I'm not sure that that will go down too well in Cumbria particularly if UKIP and the Lib Dems select local candidates.

One of the best results of the 2015 general election was when Labour parachuted in Will "Son of Jack" Straw into the Rossendale and Darwen constituency in Lancashire as their official candidate despite having zero ties to the constituency. He was comprehensively beaten which I thought was a good thing because I disapprove of nepotism and political dynasties.

It's win or resign for Corbyn. Opposition parties simply shouldn't lose seats in by elections

Yes the Conservatives.

Let's hope they've booked their seats on Virgin. Would hate to think of them sitting on the floor all that way.

I heard on the radio that his son has just been diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. And as its about the farthest you can get from Westminster wants to be with his family more.

The Umbrella Corporation based at Raccoon City, just outside Sellafield will be laying on choppers.

Err... I think constituencies in Scotland and Northern Ireland are bit further away from Westminster.

Not Labour. Well apart from one.
The point being it was not feasible for him to be away for long periods of time from his family at this time. Are you really so heartless?

I didn't mean to sound heartless at all. Just pointing out some simple geography. If he wants to spend more time with his family then that's entirely his decision to make.

By the way, the PM also has Type 1 Diabetes
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us...h-theresa-may/

Fair enough. I was just explaining why he resigned.

It's slightly easier to get to Westminster from Maidenhead than Copeland and even easier when living in Downing Street.

Maybe, but those have better air and rail links than that part of Cumbria.

its quicker to get from London to Paris than it is to get from London to Whitehaven.

You obviously haven't actually seen this seat's results at the last election. It's a marginal.

Corbyn doesn't care about seats in parliament. He's interested in his cult followers, going to the Stop The war Christmas party, dreaming of being Castro, and making speeches about spending tens of billions he will never have to spend.

His MPs know he is useless and leading Labour to 20 years in the wilderness -but can't get rid of him. - because the Corbyn cult is acting ike a classic death cult. He's there till he dies, or decides to go, or the Unite leadership changes, and the major unions get fed up of paying out for a lost cause.

Needs a 3.25% swing to go Conservative and there's a 15% UKIP vote to feed on, and to eat Labour's vote. Sits on top of Barrow and will be involvd heavily in Trident replacement spending too - which is a prime reason not to vote for Corbyn.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/c...d%20Whitehaven

Most of it goes in with Workington and becomes a safe labour seat seemingly.

The problem for Labour is that only a moderate can win it, and for whoever that is they will be fighting whoever now has Workington to try for the seat in 2020.

Really? it was only a couple of months ago that JC himself was photographed shopping in our tiny little village,.... in Northumberland. but lets not let those fact things get in the way.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/...-wool-11984750
then there was the time he was in that very well known southern city of Newcastle on Tyne.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/...astle-11621735

then there was the time he went to visit those people affected by the floods in that southern county of Cumbria last year.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6768326.html


So. as I have provided three pieces of evidence which shoot down in flames your claim that the Labour leader would be unable to find his way north without a map, (I could provide more, but three will be enough to make my point)

Would you be good enough to find an occasion this century when Theresa May has ventured this far north?

just once will do.

It doesn't really matter whether the Dear Leader has visited anywhere north of Watford. It all depends on who Labour chooses as their candidate, and what the Dear Leader and his sycophants say about the main local employer, which happens to be the nuclear industry.

Jamie Reed is a local. He has gone on record as disagreeing with Corbyn, but he understood what people in the constituency want and need, and has strong links to the the nuclear industry. As does the probable conservative candidate.

The local labour party would surely tell them to burger off

Although no date has been set, I have the feeling it will be on February 23rd.

I read one report that said that, for him, it was a 6 hour journey from Westminster.