Here are your options: https://goo.gl/maps/VCPbEASii8z

5 hr 30min by train (assuming no strikes or leaves on the line). Around 6 hours by road. And that's a best case scenario. Try doing it on a Bank Holiday weekend.

Strange how the term moderate is adapted to fit different situations. We are continually told that anyone who voted Brexit is an extremist. Copeland returned a heavy Brexit vote.

No, we're not continually told that. I would say that happens vary rarely, if ever.

You mean a few people on here verbally attack Brexit and anyone connected with it?

All words such as moderate exist on a continuum and in a particular context. Moderate is not an absolute description of anything in particular.

Sue Hayman, not a born and bred Cumbrian but was selected on a female only list and first female Cumbrian labour MP, I doubt they would oust her. She is also in Corbyns shadow cabinet so must tow the line.

Copeland is a funny place, will be an interesting one to watch.

That was at the referendum. It doesn't necessarily follow that withdrawal from the EU will be the biggest issue at the by-election. Local jobs, public services and party leadership could all come into play. Not everyone is hung-up on this so called "Br-exit". Life goes on.

Those four will certainly be the death knell for Labour up there.

I wonder if UKIP will stand aside for the Tories?

I predict a UKIP gain.

Or stand and take Labour votes?

Can't see it. They'll want to keep May honest over Brexit. Getting a decent vote share will help with that.

With Paul Nuttall having stated that UKIP will go for Labour voters in the North, there is no way that they would not field a candidate.

Thankfully.

Ha ha ha ha x 1,000

Oh I dunno, this is exactly the sort of seat they should be gaining if they're a serious alternative opposition to Labour.

I'd prefer the 'guinea pig' seat to be in Lincolnshire rather than a Northern seat, but you can't win em all.

What have you got against Whitehaven?
Let me guess, they voted brexit.

I thought I was familiar with UK geography but I had no idea where Copeland was

I think that's particularly the case with Labour voters. Quite a lot of them are against the EU, but they are not slavering at the mouth like Farage and Nuttall. The biggest danger to Labour is that its voters won't bother turning out, not that they will revolt over Brexit.

Copeland is not marginal, in the least. It is, and always has been, a strong labour constituency.

It's on the Conservatives' target seat list, they a need a 3.4% swing to take the seat. That makes it marginal.

The Labour majority has gone down steadily since 1997.

Labour Jamie Reed 16,750 42.3 −3.7
Conservative Stephen Haraldsen 14,186 35.8 −1.3
UKIP Michael Pye 6,148 15.5 +13.2
Liberal Democrat Danny Gallagher 1,368 3.5 −6.7
Green Allan Todd 1,179 3.0 +2.1
Majority 2,564 6.5 −2.4
Turnout 39,631 63.8 −3.8
Labour hold Swing −1.2

Yes, a two and a half thousand majority makes it a marginal seat.

Apologies, I haven't read the entire thread and this may be a rather simplistic question, but it's Christmas so hopefully you will let me off...

If Labour lose significantly, not sure what that would be in numbers, but if they did, how likely do you think it would be that Corbyn would step aside? Any chance? I think we need an effective opposition which we do not have at the moment, surely if he really cares about social inequality etc then he must know that Labour need a leader that can win an election?

Not a chance. He's proven himself to be stubborn, if nothing else. If he stays after losing a vote of no confidence he's not going to quit over a by election.

None - it would be someone's fault, somehow Momentum would spin it so Corbynites feel they were the reason for the few votes gained and the losses down to the infighters trying to get rid of Corbyn.

"We would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for the pesky PLP"

They'll blame Jamie Reed, both for resigning and for being a "Blairite red Tory" who undermined their campaign.

Although it does also mean Corbyn has one less enemy on the back benches.