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38 vetoes on post Brexit UK/EU trade deal
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jmclaugh
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“I've never understood why Leavers are so keen on "WTO rules". It doesn't give us any control at all - it's a totally undemocratic organisation where we have to agree to their rules whether we like them or not.”

You can say the same thing about remainers who are so keen on EU rules which apply to the UK when trading via EU trade agreements or on WTO terms.
thenetworkbabe
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Hazy Davy:
“Announced today, that any EU/UK post Brexit trade deal may need to be ratified by all 38 member Parliaments effectively giving them all a veto.

Eleanor Sharpston, the European Court of Justice’s Advocate General, has issued a legal opinion ruling that an EU free trade deal with Singapore must be agreed by all member states.

If this ruling is adopted by the ECJ (and the Advocate General's rulings usually are) the implications for a post Brexit deal in anything but a very long timescale are dire.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...xit-deal-veto/

So WTO rules it will be - and anyone who thinks that is good news doesn't understand it.

We have voted out of one type of government that is alien to us to another type of governance that isn't up to the job.

An interim deal with the EU to avoid the cliff edge would have been possible if the government wasn't so obsessed by control of the borders, an obsession that has come about because over the last nine years the UK governments have failed to deal properly with the effects that immigration has had on public services and housing costs. If they had limited non-EU immigration more effectively and funded the public services adequately then we would not be in this mess. We might now have the right to kick the governments out, all we need now is to find a competent one!”

We have a democracy and the government is trying to make 2 and 2 add up as near as possible to 4 still - rather than 2. it may have been a dumb thing to vote for , and based on a pack of lies, but the folk voted for leave, and a majority want national control of immigration . Its democratically ,and politically, impossible for May not to deliver both.

You seem to contradict yourself in the second paragraph. You argue for control of immigration, which was impossible before under EU basic rules , and no control of the borders now- which is politically impossible given the referendum vote. You adopt the Corbyn, Islington, marxist , line that the Leave voters were only concerned with money - not nationalism. You seem to assume government could have spent more on covering any negative impact of immigration - when the immigrants more than paid for themselves, and there would have been less to spend on leave voters without them. And you miss the dominant political and economic reality of the last 9 years- that, post the 2008 crash, government had 70 plus billion less, to spend on anything . They, and any other government that didn't believe in fantasy economics, had no money to maintain existing spending - let alone find more.

its now a binary choice - yes or no, whether we have national control or not, and unless the Eu reverses policy, that decides whether we meet the fundamental terms of free access to the single market - although the result is likely to be the same immigration numbers either way.

There's nothing incompetent about whats going on . its just not in May's power to negotiate - with other political parties intervening to try and win some votes- and what we get is totally out of her control so she can't possibly say what she will get.. The only policy she can have, is to get what the Leave voters undenably demanded, and to call whatever else we get, the best possible deal - because thats what it will , by definition , be.


Taking Control means what it always was going to mean - taking what Belgian provinces, Spaniards and Bulgarians will give us.
johhn
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by RRL:
“But that is the internationally agreed method of counting immigration so why change it just to make the Government look like they are doing something they are not?”

Besides, if the international students are removed from the statistics numbers, then the number of non-eu migrants who leave will also be significantly reduced, meaning the net migration number may not be reduced as much as some people would like to believe.

A flaw with the current model to calculate migration is that this is a survey based. Any EU migrant can claim they are here temporally can change their mind to start working legally. But the purpose and work eligibility of non-eu migrants are clearly stated on their visa and migration documents.
Nick1966
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by jmclaugh:
“You can say the same thing about remainers who are so keen on EU rules which apply to the UK when trading via EU trade agreements or on WTO terms.”

You're absolutely right.

The EU has a bewildering number of trade schedules. For instance, there are 87 agricultural trade rate quotas in place to protect farmers across 28 member states. And the EU have failed to update their WTO schedules to reflect recent enlargement. Result: uncertified quotas which the EU and WTO keep secret from everyone else.

Dr Liam Fox will have to address these matters in order to implement the country's decision to leave the EU. Let's look at lamb. The EU sets a tariff free quota on lamb imports, on which New Zealand gets the lion's share. Dr Fox will either have to agree a UK share of that lamb quota with the EU or set and agree an entirely new UK lamb quota with WTO. While discussing lamb quotas with the WTO or the EU, you can be sure the New Zealand farming minister will use the opportunity to lobby Dr Fox to increase the NZ lamb quota. The Kiwis have tried this before. After that, there are another 86 agriculture quotas to go.

The UK imported lamb from NZ before we joined the EEC in 1973. But with impending new arrangements, there will be a rare opportunity for agricultural ministries from the around the world to start calling Dr Fox's department.

It's a potential mess. Other than continued membership of the EU Customs Union, I wish I had other solutions.
Union Jock
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“I've never understood why Leavers are so keen on "WTO rules". It doesn't give us any control at all - it's a totally undemocratic organisation where we have to agree to their rules whether we like them or not.”

Is freedom of movement one of the WTO rules?
Doctor_Wibble
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Nick1966:
“... And the EU have failed to update their WTO schedules to reflect recent enlargement. Result: uncertified quotas which the EU and WTO keep secret from everyone else. ...”

At what expense? I mean at what properly accounted and declared cost fully auditable as of course it totally is especially the one with the gold plated taps, I'm sure this doesn't leave a huge amount of 'creative leeway'?

More seriously though, was it not some department's job to deal with these things, and what have that department been doing instead?
Doctor_Wibble
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Union Jock:
“Is freedom of movement one of the WTO rules?”

Only for buying and selling laxatives.
Nick1966
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Union Jock:
“Is freedom of movement one of the WTO rules?”

No.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is the global body which regulates and facilities international trade. Crucially, the WTO settles trade disputes, when one country thinks another country has either been breaking WTO rules or disputes their trade policy.

The UK is a member of the EU both in its own right and via the EU. All trade deals and disputes are negotiated by the EU on behalf of all EU member states, including the UK.

If the UK government decides to leave the EU Customs Union, then we join the WTO in our own right. Joining the WTO can take time. After the 1991 end of the Soviet Union, the various successor states have had lengthy application processes to join the WTO. Kyrgyzstan joined in 1998, Russia finally joined in 2012 and some other ex-Soviet Union countries are still not WTO members.

You'll have to ask an international trade lawyer to find what happens to UK global trade cover, in the event that we leave the EU Customs Union and don't get agreed WTO membership straight away. I have no idea what happens.
allaorta
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“Immigration was scarcely even an issue in the 2010 General Election, most of the debates centred on other areas.

It does show how effective UKIP, the Tory Right and the right wing press have been in whipping it up and putting it front and centre as if it's the No.1 "problem" facing the UK right now.”

Originally Posted by johhn:
“That's probably because back then everything else was overshadowed by the financial crisis since 2008. Besides the overpowering political correctness was also stronglly advocated by Labour and Con, Gillian Duffy and Gordon Brown spring to mind.”

Take no notice, immigration has been an issue for years, at the same time as there being almost a conspiracy among all three parties to marginalise it.
andykn
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Blairdennon:
“I did not say it was fact I gave it as opinion on situations that had not occurred. The fact that many in Remain are claiming the Leave campaign was won on a racist agenda may help explain the point.”

But they're not, are they. A few in Remain are pointing out specific instances where specific elements of the Leave campaign were racist.
alan29
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“But they're not, are they. A few in Remain are pointing out specific instances where specific elements of the Leave campaign were racist.”

Not everyone finds it easy to point the finger and call racism.
Doesn't mean they don't think it.
Remember UKIP's Nazi inspired poster?
I do.
Clearly.
andykn
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by jmclaugh:
“You can say the same thing about remainers who are so keen on EU rules which apply to the UK when trading via EU trade agreements or on WTO terms.”

Because we get a much bigger say in EU rules which are generally approved by the Council of [elected] Ministers.
andykn
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Payne by name:
“So if the EU wants to be childish and petulant over a deal that would be mutually beneficial to both sides, then so be it. We'll go down the WTO route and carry on until they return to their senses.”

Do you have any evidence that the EU want to be "childish and petulant"? Or just the the EU won't let us have our cake and eat it, not have the benefits with none of the commitments.
trunkster
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“Doesn't this contradict the idea of the EU being an 'authoritarian dictatorship'? I've seen it bashed for being a dictatorship that rules from the top down and an unwieldy bureaucratic mess (because of the veto element) at virtually the same time and by the same people.”

It's undemocratic because it's ungovernable, with 27 countries having to agree to stuff. They only way it works is as a top down organisation, hence a commission and council issuing one size fits all diktats.
Sod that, we're leaving 👍
Eurostar
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by trunkster:
“It's undemocratic because it's ungovernable, with 27 countries having to agree to stuff. They only way it works is as a top down organisation, hence a commission and council issuing one size fits all diktats.
Sod that, we're leaving 👍”

If it was ungovernable, it wouldn't even exist and would have broken up many years ago. One country out of 28 flouncing off in a hissy fit doesn't make it a failure.
Hazy Davy
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by thenetworkbabe:
“We have a democracy and the government is trying to make 2 and 2 add up as near as possible to 4 still - rather than 2. it may have been a dumb thing to vote for , and based on a pack of lies, but the folk voted for leave, and a majority want national control of immigration . Its democratically ,and politically, impossible for May not to deliver both.

You seem to contradict yourself in the second paragraph. You argue for control of immigration, which was impossible before under EU basic rules , and no control of the borders now- which is politically impossible given the referendum vote. You adopt the Corbyn, Islington, marxist , line that the Leave voters were only concerned with money - not nationalism. You seem to assume government could have spent more on covering any negative impact of immigration - when the immigrants more than paid for themselves, and there would have been less to spend on leave voters without them. And you miss the dominant political and economic reality of the last 9 years- that, post the 2008 crash, government had 70 plus billion less, to spend on anything . They, and any other government that didn't believe in fantasy economics, had no money to maintain existing spending - let alone find more.

its now a binary choice - yes or no, whether we have national control or not, and unless the Eu reverses policy, that decides whether we meet the fundamental terms of free access to the single market - although the result is likely to be the same immigration numbers either way.

There's nothing incompetent about whats going on . its just not in May's power to negotiate - with other political parties intervening to try and win some votes- and what we get is totally out of her control so she can't possibly say what she will get.. The only policy she can have, is to get what the Leave voters undenably demanded, and to call whatever else we get, the best possible deal - because thats what it will , by definition , be.


Taking Control means what it always was going to mean - taking what Belgian provinces, Spaniards and Bulgarians will give us.”

The incompetence is getting us into this mess in the first place. It has been obvious for sometime that the speed of immigration combined with the loss of jobs to China from globalisation has created many people who think that they have lost out. Yet we have had a government that hasn't even done the things it could do to help, such as limiting immigration from outside the Eu, built social housing (it was George Osborne who was reported as saying he wouldn't build council houses as they just created Labour voters), and training more medical staff. They then called a referendum without preparing for.one of the outcomes.
Mrs May now.has to sort this out. She should be selling.us a five year stint in the EEA to allow.the government time to learn how to do trade deals, to learn how to govern ourselves again, to set up the functions that have been done by the EU for years, to start to do trade deals with non Eu countries, to take the urgency and therefore the weakness of our negotiating position away.
But she has chosen not to. She has chosen to allow the narrative to be that it's all about the control of our borders (the few surveys there have been about why people voted leave say it wasn't all about immigration -and 48%voted to stay in warts and all). So rather than try to sell a structured 5 to 7 year Eu exit she has has gone for the economically high risk but politically safe option of no Fom and a weak negotiating position on everything else.
It's about one of three things. Either no confidence that she could deliver a soft Brexit, or a personal desire to reduce immigration whatever the cost or a political calculation that it's what people will vote for in 2020.
What the UK government hasn't done is reduce immigration when it could, prepare for.a referendum outcome in advance and then have the guts to do a controlled exit over a period that allows the economy time to adjust. Hence my view that it's competence is suspect.
blueisthecolour
22-12-2016
I've often said that I don't think the UK public properly understands the mentality of average mainland EU citizen. They (by and large) see the EU as a collective that gives them stability and security Most of them have seen their country dominated by one empire or another in the last 100 years and see the EU as a natural democratic alternative.

When you view the EU from that perspective you start to understand that the main concern of member countries is not short term trade issues, it's the long term survival of the organization. Brexit presents a fundamental risk not because it weakens the EU economically or politically but because it will stir up anti-EU feelings in other nations and boost other secessionist movements. As such they will have very little interest in making the process easy for Britain or bending over backwards to give us what we want. Obviously they can't ignore basic market pressures (especially given how fragile EU economies are right now) but they will accept some pain rather than undermine EU principles.

We're not going to remain in the single market because it will 100% mean keeping the existing economic and trade rules that the EU imposes today - and the Tory Brexiteers will stage a coup if May tries that. And we're not going to have a complete trade agreement with the EU either because the member states are not going to fast track that on our behalf. We have to get used to the idea that this is going to be a hard and bumpy landing and the EU is not going to do anything to make it easier. The best thing we can do is win the public relations battle because the public opinion is the one thing that the EU does worry about and if they are seen as too belligerent or deliberately obstructive it will only help the likes of the Le Penn and 5 Star.
droogiefret
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Payne by name:
“I think this country is tired of feeling that the people and society are there purely to serve the economy.

The economy runs (and thrives) because of the people, not the other way round. Hence the population made it clear in the referendum that the people are more important than the economy and hence if there is an impact on the economy it because of their personal choice, so be it.

We don't exist to 'flatline' our way through life so that we don't do anything to rock the boat which could rock the economy. We should not control our entire lives and the direction of our country on what might or might not have an impact on the economy. The people are the master and the economy is our servant.

So if the EU wants to be childish and petulant over a deal that would be mutually beneficial to both sides, then so be it. We'll go down the WTO route and carry on until they return to their senses.

The country has made it's decision, the governments job is to implement that decision and to coin that phrase we just need to keep calm and carry on.”

What does this even mean???

Without a strong economy people will be worse off.

'We are making ourselves poorer to make ourselves more important' - that's crazy talk.
Dingbat
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by droogiefret:
“What does this even mean???

Without a strong economy people will be worse off.

'We are making ourselves poorer to make ourselves more important' - that's crazy talk.”

Its the Monty Python Black Knight complex, quite common among Brexiters.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blac..._(Monty_Python)
Hazy Davy
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by blueisthecolour:
“I've often said that I don't think the UK public properly understands the mentality of average mainland EU citizen. They (by and large) see the EU as a collective that gives them stability and security Most of them have seen their country dominated by one empire or another in the last 100 years and see the EU as a natural democratic alternative.

When you view the EU from that perspective you start to understand that the main concern of member countries is not short term trade issues, it's the long term survival of the organization. Brexit presents a fundamental risk not because it weakens the EU economically or politically but because it will stir up anti-EU feelings in other nations and boost other secessionist movements. As such they will have very little interest in making the process easy for Britain or bending over backwards to give us what we want. Obviously they can't ignore basic market pressures (especially given how fragile EU economies are right now) but they will accept some pain rather than undermine EU principles.

We're not going to remain in the single market because it will 100% mean keeping the existing economic and trade rules that the EU imposes today - and the Tory Brexiteers will stage a coup if May tries that. And we're not going to have a complete trade agreement with the EU either because the member states are not going to fast track that on our behalf. We have to get used to the idea that this is going to be a hard and bumpy landing and the EU is not going to do anything to make it easier. The best thing we can do is win the public relations battle because the public opinion is the one thing that the EU does worry about and if they are seen as too belligerent or deliberately obstructive it will only help the likes of the Le Penn and 5 Star.”

These people are in a minority even within the Parliamentary Tory Party. If Mrs May allows herself to be their hostage -allowing the tail to wag the dog - then she's a weak leader, just like Cameron - and look what happened to him. she should lead, not follow.
Nick1966
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Hazy Davy:
“These people are in a minority even within the Parliamentary Tory Party. If Mrs May allows herself to be their hostage -allowing the tail to wag the dog - then she's a weak leader, just like Cameron - and look what happened to him. she should lead, not follow.”

This report confirms what you're saying
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uplo...-months-on.pdf
Go to page 10 "UK government"

"Despite the appointments Theresa May made on entering Number 10, it is not clear who will be responsible for negotiating Brexit, at either the ministerial or more technical level."

"But six months later, the hiatus looks less like calmness and more like transfixion in the Article 50 headlights. May has staked her credibility on getting to the Article 50 notification without undue delay, locking in the end of March 2017 as her deadline. However, the articulation of little more than a series of unrelated and mutually conflicting aspirations cannot hide the absence of a game-plan"

"Meanwhile, and despite an ineffective Parliamentary opposition, factions on both sides of the Conservative Party threaten to hamstring May as she inches along the Brexit tightrope"
Payne by name
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“Do you have any evidence that the EU want to be "childish and petulant"? Or just the the EU won't let us have our cake and eat it, not have the benefits with none of the commitments.”

It's really not about letting us having our cake, a decent trade deal will benefit BOTH sides.

The FTA's with Mexico, South Korea etc don't involve commitments to FOM so let's just concentrate on the trade. If the EU can't see the benefit of mutually beneficial logic then that is there choice. However, it shouldn't change the decision that the British people made.
Payne by name
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by droogiefret:
“What does this even mean???

Without a strong economy people will be worse off.

'We are making ourselves poorer to make ourselves more important' - that's crazy talk.”

It means that even if splitting up a destructive marriage costs you money, you still go through with it. You don't continue in miserable existence just to maintain a healthy bank balance.
Aurora13
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by Payne by name:
“It's really not about letting us having our cake, a decent trade deal will benefit BOTH sides.

The FTA's with Mexico, South Korea etc don't involve commitments to FOM so let's just concentrate on the trade. If the EU can't see the benefit of mutually beneficial logic then that is there choice. However, it shouldn't change the decision that the British people made.”

FTA's like those you mention are USELESS to UK in terms of trade. They export goods we are require a deal that involves exporting services.
psy7ch
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“And it also illustrates the problem with the EU and why we need to get out - cos it can never agree on anything and if it does it takes years.

Why should we need 37 other parliaments to agree a deal with a small island like Singapore which we have strong historic ties to when we could do a trade deal far more quickly on our own”

I thought we needed to get out because we are dictated to by faceless bureaucrats in Brussels? Now we are moaning because in reality each EU country has a say in treaty changes.
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