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HSBC: Goods & Services will grow by 2.5% in 2017
Aye Up
22-12-2016
Quote:
“Another survey out today comes courtesy of HSBC and is a measure of how confident its business customers are at present.The news is pretty positive: there has been a sharp bounce back in confidence following a slump in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU, the six month anniversary of which is tomorrow.
Separately, HSBC has been assessing the fortunes of the UK's goods and services trade, which it forecasts will grow by 2.5% in 2017.
The break-down is of 2.1% growth in goods trade and 2.9% in services trade and HSBC is also predicting that, by 2030, the value of services exported by the UK will rise to $895bn from $345bn in 2015.”

Source: Sky News

HSBC still thinks we will be the second largest exporter of services in 2017, their confidence even infers it will continue to grow over the coming years too. Information is slowly starting to come through which suggests the economy isn't and won't be in as bad a shape as the neysayers predicted. Inflation will rise in 2017, however I don't think it will return to normal 2% levels of yesteryear, companies will be loathed to put up prices of goods unless as a last resort.

I think once the ball gets rolling for Brexit after March 2017 things will stabilise and it will become apparent the kind of deal we are going to get. The economy is in a strong position to be able to weather even a hard brexit IMHO, something I hope the Tories pursue if the EU tries to shaft us one.

Based on this survey not everything is going off a cliff?
James_Orton
22-12-2016
That can't be right. We keep being told the economy will collapse next year, like it did this year.
andykn
22-12-2016
But what was the prediction 6 months ago, without that we can't tell anything.
andykn
22-12-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“That can't be right. We keep being told the economy will collapse next year, like it did this year.”

<sigh> No, you weren't. You were told growth would be affected and it already has been.

You are just repeatedly demonstrating why referenda are a terrible idea.
andykn
22-12-2016
And in the unlikely event any Brexiter is in the tiniest bit interested in the truth, here's what HSBC have to actually say:

"Brexit has injected considerable uncertainty into the economy’s prospects. This will exert a persistent drag on activity, particularly via weaker investment spending.

Provided that adequate market access to the EU can be maintained during and following the UK’s exit, the pattern of UK merchandise exports is forecast to be fairly stable over the next decade. Industrial machinery, transport equipment and pharmaceuticals should continue to dominate in terms of export growth and share.

Among services, the potential loss of EU ‘passporting’ arrangements leaves finance particularly at risk from Brexit. However, if suitable trade arrangements can be put in place, the intrinsic strength of the sector, geographical spread and opportunities outside the EU point to the UK’s leading position in services not being eroded too much."

https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/u...e-forecasts/gb
BrokenArrow
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“<sigh> No, you weren't. You were told growth would be affected and it already has been.

You are just repeatedly demonstrating why referenda are a terrible idea.”

Clearly the result of the referendum justified its existence.
andykn
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by BrokenArrow:
“Clearly the result of the referendum justified its existence.”

Hardly, how many people expect us to save 350m a week and even Farage called the result "unfinished business".
jmclaugh
23-12-2016
Nah, this can't be right, we're doomed.
CSJB
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“Hardly, how many people expect us to save 350m a week and even Farage called the result "unfinished business".”

I would guess about seven people in Britain think that.
What's your guess ?
andykn
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by CSJB:
“I would guess about seven people in Britain think that.
What's your guess ?”

I could probably find you threads on here with more people than that.
James_Orton
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“I could probably find you threads on here with more people than that.”

Only the thicko extreme remainers think that. You can tell who they are by the amount of time they spend bringing it up.
andykn
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“Only the thicko extreme remainers think that. You can tell who they are by the amount of time they spend bringing it up.”

Unfortunately there's more than one Brexiter who was prepared to defend the 350m.

It's no good whining about bringing it up now when it was the cornerstone of the official leave campaign. It's mentioned five times in the leaflet.

Ssssh, don't mention the 350m.
Mr Oleo Strut
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“Source: Sky News

HSBC still thinks we will be the second largest exporter of services in 2017, their confidence even infers it will continue to grow over the coming years too. Information is slowly starting to come through which suggests the economy isn't and won't be in as bad a shape as the neysayers predicted. Inflation will rise in 2017, however I don't think it will return to normal 2% levels of yesteryear, companies will be loathed to put up prices of goods unless as a last resort.

I think once the ball gets rolling for Brexit after March 2017 things will stabilise and it will become apparent the kind of deal we are going to get. The economy is in a strong position to be able to weather even a hard brexit IMHO, something I hope the Tories pursue if the EU tries to shaft us one.

Based on this survey not everything is going off a cliff?”

I am sure that the financial future is uncertain and that there will be highs and lows. I hope that the bank is right, but sadly their record on straight-talking is not that good. Their positive prediction may well benefit just the already-rich and not the hoi-poloi like me. We'll see. Nothing is certain.
Jayceef1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“Source: Sky News

HSBC still thinks we will be the second largest exporter of services in 2017, their confidence even infers it will continue to grow over the coming years too. Information is slowly starting to come through which suggests the economy isn't and won't be in as bad a shape as the neysayers predicted. Inflation will rise in 2017, however I don't think it will return to normal 2% levels of yesteryear, companies will be loathed to put up prices of goods unless as a last resort.

I think once the ball gets rolling for Brexit after March 2017 things will stabilise and it will become apparent the kind of deal we are going to get. The economy is in a strong position to be able to weather even a hard brexit IMHO, something I hope the Tories pursue if the EU tries to shaft us one.

Based on this survey not everything is going off a cliff?”

UK Growth revised UP for Q3

Ruth Gregory, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figures suggested that June's Brexit vote had had little impact on the economy and that growth in the final quarter of the year would be positive.
"The latest set of UK National Accounts leave the economy looking even stronger after the referendum than previously estimated," she said.
"GDP growth in Q3 was revised up from 0.5% to 0.6% and the 0.7% growth rate seen in the second quarter was revised down a touch, to 0.6%, suggesting that the economy didn't lose any pace following the referendum."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38413787
Aye Up
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Mr Oleo Strut:
“I am sure that the financial future is uncertain and that there will be highs and lows. I hope that the bank is right, but sadly their record on straight-talking is not that good. Their positive prediction may well benefit just the already-rich and not the hoi-poloi like me. We'll see. Nothing is certain.”

You are like an enigma that ISN'T waiting to be cracked!

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