Originally Posted by tahiti:
“they are here because currently regulations allow the work to be done from here, and there is the added bonus of lower taxation.
after Brexit, the regulations (eg Mifid 2/3) will be revised so that EU-related work , eg clearing or the provision of financial services, must be done from the EU. The firms might still be British, but the jobs servicing the EU will be in the EU.
taxation is more of an issue, but ways will be found - eg company tax breaks allowing staff to be paid more. And frankly, in banking nowadays, you go where the work is, unless you are at board level (where maybe you can choose your location).”
According to the EU Commission Mifid 2 “third country firms should see this as a positive step forward as it reduces divergences across Member States and therefore the legal and regulatory costs for third-country operators”. Third country firms are those based outside the EU. MiFID 2 provides a detailed set of rules that harmonise the requirements with which the branch of the third country firm (not based in the EU) have to comply in order to be authorised by the national competent authority of the EU Member States.
Ending access by third-country operators would not just impact a brexit UK it would impact lots of other nations and could trigger retaliatory measures against the EU.
Financial clearing can be done anywhere a central bank is willing to act as guarantor to the trades. For example Euro currency clearing is currently done in non EU nations , the USA, Switzerland, Singapore, etc.
As far as going where the work is the big money is financial markets and the work is where other traders and investors are. That is not going to up and move upon Brexit. Especially as other EU nations have more regulation and higher taxation and have repeatedly considered taxiing each transaction.
What will happen is the ECB euro clearing house will move to Germany due to Brexit and the LSE's Euro trading market will move to Germany if the LSE Deutsche Boerse merger agreed before the referendum goes ahead. That move of the LSE's Euro trading market due to the merger would have taken place even if the UK had voted remain as it was already agreed as part of the merger deal.
What will also happen is some financial services provided to EU customers will require some functions currently done in the UK be done in the EU so the companies maintain passporting. This means some banks and financial services companies will need larger EU offices to perform those functions. For example in Insurance Lloyd's of London that before the referendum claimed all London based EU commercial insurance business was at risk of moving to the EU some 48,000 jobs is in reality moving 50 jobs to a office in another EU nation to maintain passporting in the even of no UK EU deal. Banks said by remain supporters to be planning to move to the EU are in reality likewise just planning to move a small number of their London based jobs to maintain passporting not the entire Bank.
There might be a deal on passporting because the EU will want to maintain easy access to money, EU companies raise money in London. Its arguable if the customers or the providers have the upper hand when its the customers seeking money.