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Did anybody accurately predict the unexpected events of 2016
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juliancarswell
26-12-2016
As per the title.

My old mum used to buy Old Moore's Almanac years ago and I was wondering in such an eventful year did they or anybody else in that game in 2015 predict ...

1 President Trump,

2 The Brexit result.

3 The mass extinction of so many celebrities?

If not, after a year like this if they couldn't predict such enormous events how can anyone take them seriously.
blueblade
26-12-2016
No, none of them. Maybe Brexit, I thought there was a possibility we might vote out.

As for Old Moore's Almanac, they were nearly always wrong with their weather forecasts for the year.
juliancarswell
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“As for Old Moore's Almanac, they were nearly always wrong with their weather forecasts for the year.”

Haha, perhaps they supply the Daily Express with their annual winter forcast.
blueblade
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by juliancarswell:
“Haha, perhaps they supply the Daily Express with their annual winter forcast. ”

Actually, looking up the results of Old Moore's predictions for 2016, they didn't score that badly, although some might be considered educated guesses in advance - link

The most pithy all embracing line from their publication was this:-

Quote:
“"Unfortunately 2016 will be tumultuous; it’s not a year that will be remembered fondly.””

Not many would disagree too strongly with that.
TheEricPollard
26-12-2016
I did.
Princessxxxx
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by juliancarswell:
“As per the title.

My old mum used to buy Old Moore's Almanac years ago and I was wondering in such an eventful year did they or anybody else in that game in 2015 predict ...

1 President Trump,

2 The Brexit result.

3 The mass extinction of so many celebrities?

If not, after a year like this if they couldn't predict such enormous events how can anyone take them seriously. ”

My mum and dad as follows

Brexit
Trumph

our new PM
hackjo
26-12-2016
Been an amazing year for me personally, mixed with a couple of deaths close to me which are inevitable in any year and always sad.

I certainly expected Brexit, didn't think Trump would make it and there was no way of predicting all the celebrity deaths, bar a few.

Politically, I think we have seen an interesting turn of events here and in the US that may lead to a more positive state of affairs in the long term but some pain and discomfort in the short term,

The celebrity death count is not unprecedented and while alarming from the perspective that these people were all cultural touch points, the perception of it being a shocking set of events is partly the result of our celebrity culture and media driven age.

My summation would be that 2016 is a year of change, the effects of which will not be fully seen for some time. If we choose to, we can draw the positives from this and move forward with some opportunities to reassess our priorities and thinking. If we choose to be negative, then we will get the inevitable results.
Pitman
26-12-2016
George Galloway claims to have, I have heard him say it on his radio show, Brexit and Trump, not the mass extinction of celebs
St Dabeoc
26-12-2016
Yup. Every one

You won't believe what going to happen on Tuesday
HenryGarten
26-12-2016
I predicted both Trump and Brexit.
Laurel1ne
26-12-2016
One thing I look forward to is that Radio 4 do a "Correspondents Look Ahead Show" usually on New Year's Day with the BBC's top reporters saying what the New Year will bring

So towards the end of the year I like to listen to the previous year's and see how much they were right and wrong

Previous Year's

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hchdc
HenryGarten
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by Laurel1ne:
“One thing I look forward to is that Radio 4 do a "Correspondents Look Ahead Show" usually on New Year's Day with the BBC's top reporters saying what the New Year will bring

So towards the end of the year I like to listen to the previous year's and see how much they were right and wrong

Previous Year's

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hchdc”

Thanks for that. Not very good are they?
mikeyddd
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by HenryGarten:
“I predicted both Trump and Brexit.”

6

It's only truly a prediction if someone predicts these events say 5 years ago, rather than when it's a 2 horse race so to speak.
jp761
26-12-2016
Anyone who says they predicted all of that lot i'm calling them out as a liar
HenryGarten
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by mikeyddd:
“6

It's only truly a prediction if someone predicts these events say 5 years ago, rather than when it's a 2 horse race so to speak.”

Well it was not a two horse race back in January 2016 when I predicted Trump. Everyone else had the same chance but most got it wrong.
_ben
26-12-2016
I don't know why people think of Trump and Brexit as unexpected, most people have wanted out of the EU for years now (UKIP got more votes than any other party in the 2014 European Parliament elections), and Hillary Clinton is deeply unpopular to the point of being toxic. Also, it's a well established fact that opinion polls always underestimate the desire for radical change (probably because turnout is proportionally much higher among people who are deeply dissatisfied) so when the polls showed a difference of only a few percent, it was pretty much guaranteed that the leave campaign and Trump would win.
HenryGarten
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by _ben:
“I don't know why people think of Trump and Brexit as unexpected, most people have wanted out of the EU for years now (UKIP got more votes than any other party in the 2014 European Parliament elections), and Hillary Clinton is deeply unpopular to the point of being toxic. Also, it's a well established fact that opinion polls always underestimate the desire for radical change (probably because turnout is proportionally much higher among people who are deeply dissatisfied) so when the polls showed a difference of only a few percent, it was pretty much guaranteed that the leave campaign and Trump would win.”

So where did you record these thoughts before the events?
_ben
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by HenryGarten:
“So where did you record these thoughts before the events?”

Not sure what you're getting at, but the results of the 2014 European Parliament elections are a matter of public record and have been since May 2014, UKIP got more votes and more seats than any other party. Many, although admittedly not all, opinion polls (e.g. YouGov) have shown a clear lead for the 'leave' campaign for most of the time since at least 2010/2011, and it's well accepted that opinion polls tend to underestimate support for disrupting the status quo. My point is not that I'm in some way clairvoyant, it's that most people expected the 'leave' campaign to win because they intended to vote for it all along and they knew that most of their friends and family also intended to. The result was only a surprise in places like London where there was greater support for the 'remain' side.
WhatJoeThinks
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by juliancarswell:
“As per the title.

My old mum used to buy Old Moore's Almanac years ago...”

Should've tried Grays Sports Almanac instead.
HenryGarten
26-12-2016
Some people were very clear that they were going to say "I told you so"

They went very quiet for months after
WhatJoeThinks
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by HenryGarten:
“Some people were very clear that they were going to say "I told you so"

They went very quiet for months after”

Someone tampered with the timelines, perhaps?
dodrade
26-12-2016
Originally Posted by Laurel1ne:
“One thing I look forward to is that Radio 4 do a "Correspondents Look Ahead Show" usually on New Year's Day with the BBC's top reporters saying what the New Year will bring

So towards the end of the year I like to listen to the previous year's and see how much they were right and wrong

Previous Year's

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hchdc”

Had a relisten, vaguely accurate on Syria although not perhaps on how important Russian intervention would be. Poor on Brexit and Trump, only Sopel taking the latter seriously, Rubio still seen then as the GOP's great hope. In fairness few would have disagreed with most of them this time last year.
d0lphin
26-12-2016
No, but in the last week whilst driving to work radio 2 played 3 consecutive George Michael tracks just before 8.00 am ( - at the time I didn't realise they did this with a different artist every day and I said to my husband that George Michael must have died. Seems weird that a few days later he did.
TerraCanis
27-12-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Actually, looking up the results of Old Moore's predictions for 2016, they didn't score that badly, although some might be considered educated guesses in advance - link”

I noticed that your link refers to an Irish edition, which leads me to wonder whether the predictions are the same in different editions.
Paulie Walnuts
27-12-2016
This is just like people who gamble a lot, they only tell you about the ones they win.
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