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Sterling ends the year as 2nd worst performing global currency, what for 2017? |
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#51 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 14,772
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Yawn, Is there no end to your anti British narrative? It's as if you've never heard of a currency going up and down. Tell is the the Eur/USD exchange rate now and a year ago.
You seem to have missed the comment that sterling is the second worst performing currency. |
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#52 |
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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Still waiting to hear the Eur USD rate now and a year ago. You seem reluctant to tell me?
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#53 |
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Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 1,210
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I bet Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and the Daily Express never thought in their wildest dreams that British Sterling would be lumped in with the Argentine Peso, Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pound and the Venezuelan Bolivar in the same sentence as being the world's worst performing currencies of 2016.
Yet the Daily Express constantly bangs on about the Euro. |
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#54 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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No, this is yet more deception and denial from you. The EU is the UK's largest trading partner and that situation will not change any time soon.
The more that Leave voters continue to resort to outright falsehood and deception, the it destroys their already feeble case. |
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#55 |
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 14,772
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Currency devaluation helps a country's exports, employment, economic growth, etc. It's pretty close to a economic panacea. As long as after devaluation it stabilizes rather than continuing to rapidly freefall.
Worst performing currency in terms of currency losing value maybe the best performing currency in terms of aiding a nation's competitiveness and economy going forward. |
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#56 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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Up and down, in and out, shake it all about'! Trouble is we're doing the Oki Koki with our currency, country and future. All based on a mess of lies and bigotry. Nothing to be proud about.
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#57 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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Nobody is addressing this story from the Telegraph earlier today warning of a rocky road for sterling in 2017 with the proposed triggering of article 50.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ngs-final-dip/ |
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#58 |
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Central London
Posts: 43,686
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Up and down, in and out, shake it all about'! Trouble is we're doing the Oki Koki with our currency, country and future. All based on a mess of lies and bigotry. Nothing to be proud about.
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#59 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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Quote:
I bet Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and the Daily Express never thought in their wildest dreams that British Sterling would be lumped in with the Argentine Peso, Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pound and the Venezuelan Bolivar in the same sentence as being the world's worst performing currencies of 2016.
Yet the Daily Express constantly bangs on about the Euro. |
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#60 |
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,834
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I expect the Germans in the twenties living under the Weimar Republic would have disagreed with your evaluation of the situation.
But once freefall stoped... the years 1924 to 1929 were known as the 'Golden Years' as Germany became increasingly prosperous. The economy rapidly grew and unemployed fell. The German economy grew more rapidly than its European competitors and by 1928 German industrial workers were the highest paid in Europe. |
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#61 |
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 19,171
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Well we're fast approaching that time of the year again, about to enter a new one.
For many months UK sterling was the worst performing currency as reported by many media from the Telegraph, to Guardian to Irish Times to Metro to Sky News. It ended the year as the second worst performing global currency just behind the Argentine Peso. What for Sterling in 2017? And remember if Theresa May can keep her promise, we're just weeks away from the triggering of Article 50. Personally, I can see sterling getting murdered again on the currency markets once the button is pressed. What do ye all think? |
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#62 |
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Darn Sarf
Posts: 28,728
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If they were that good at looking ahead, how comes they've been caught so often?
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#63 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Tell me, a) What is anti British about stating a fact? b) Yes currency does go up and down, but when have you known sterling to perform as badly as it has this year?
You seem to have missed the comment that sterling is the second worst performing currency. B) you have a very short memory. Sterling reached €1.03 back in 2010. That's a worse performance than now. Did the world cave in then? No. But don't let that ruin your melodramatic narrative. |
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#64 |
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,494
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A) The poster I believe is Irish. And keeps posting downbeat threads about Britain. That suggests to me he doesn't like Britain very much.
B) you have a very short memory. Sterling reached €1.03 back in 2010. That's a worse performance than now. Did the world cave in then? No. But don't let that ruin your melodramatic narrative. Do you think if people stop 'talking down' the economy things will just magically sort themselves out - do you think the rest of the world haven't noticed? You talk of melodramatic narrative - I'd call yours delusional. |
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#65 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Have we ever been the second worst performing currency in the world? Is it melodramatic to be concerned about that? Did our currency not take a massive hit the day after BREXIT referendum? Has it recovered it's pre Referendum status. Did the BofE not pump billions into the economy to stabilise it? Who do you think has paid and will continue to pay for that?
Do you think if people stop 'talking down' the economy things will just magically sort themselves out - do you think the rest of the world haven't noticed? You talk of melodramatic narrative - I'd call yours delusional. |
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#66 |
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Join Date: Feb 2008
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It's not delusional at all. Don't be so rude. We've had lots of times where the pound has had a rough ride in our history. It always recovers. It has been historically overvalued. The rate it's at now is probably fair value. It's actually helping our exports. It's helping visiting tourists and it's helping our current account deficit. Unlike the snowflakes on here, I don't lie awake at night and revel in the constant ramble on here that it's the second worst performing currency in the world which is just against the dollar by the way. I look on the bright side and think it's actually helping our economy. Something that economically illiterate remoaners cannot grasp. Also, where were you just 5 or 6 years ago, when the pound reached €1.03 which is actually a worse performance than now. Did you spontaneously combust with the stress of it all? It went back up didn't it? Did the world stop spinning on its axis back then?
When Brexiteers are faced with realism it seems they constantly change the language into hyperbolic nonsense and call it Project Fear. Madness. |
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#67 |
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Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,427
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Really? Care to back that up? I think you may be mixing me up with another Irish poster?
On your point though, I will tell you where I stand. If there was to be a united Ireland, Britain should agree to part fund the north of Ireland for a set number of years with the funding dropping incrementally by an amount each year until the agreement fulfilled. |
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#68 |
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,834
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Have we ever been the second worst performing currency in the world?.
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Is it melodramatic to be concerned about that?
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Did our currency not take a massive hit the day after BREXIT referendum?
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Has it recovered it's pre Referendum status.
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Did the BofE not pump billions into the economy to stabilise it?
The Bank of England as part of its function as a central bank does $ repo auctions weekly and longer dated $ repo auctions monthly to assist currency liquidity. To aid the banks manage currency volatility in the period before and immediately after the referendum the Bank of England held some additional $ repo auctions. $ repo auctions are not money spent they are banks bidding against each other to borrow money off the Bank of England in short-term loans, in effect helping the banks hedge currency and ensuring liquidity in currency, for a fee. Quote:
Who do you think has paid and will continue to pay for that?
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Do you think if people stop 'talking down' the economy things will just magically sort themselves out - do you think the rest of the world haven't noticed?
2015 UK GDP Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.5% Q3 +0.3% Q4 +0.7% 2016 UK GDP Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.6% Q3 +06% Exports are up, balance of trade has improved, unemployment is down, number of job vacancies is up, average wages are rising. Quote:
You talk of melodramatic narrative - I'd call yours delusional.
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#69 |
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Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 1,210
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Well it is easy to mix you up with another Irish poster ever since you responded thinking you were on this account but used your other account.
How can I respond with another account when I have only one? |
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#70 |
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 14,772
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German hyperinflation June 1921 and January 1924.
But once freefall stoped... the years 1924 to 1929 were known as the 'Golden Years' as Germany became increasingly prosperous. The economy rapidly grew and unemployed fell. The German economy grew more rapidly than its European competitors and by 1928 German industrial workers were the highest paid in Europe. |
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#71 |
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scotland, Europe
Posts: 6,733
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Are we still doing the "stop talking Britain down" (and ignore the facts) rubbish?
I guess brexiteers don't leave the country much, it is has absolutely hammered those of us who enjoy travelling or buying goods from abroad, but that doesn't matter does it, because brexit is apparently good for me, even though it's left me and most of my friends and family worse off and has had a negative impact on my lifestyle. And it's not even really started yet! Let's see all the currency experts come out in 2017 and still rejoice when we are number 1 for worst performing currency...but I'm sure it will just be written off as "anti British fear-mongering". It has nowhere near recovered to pre-brexit levels either, that's total nonsense. |
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#72 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,479
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The only silver lining I can see is that triggering A50 has been so well sign posted that our currency value probably has already taken this into account. Apart from a one day jitter, I doubt actually triggering it will do much (unlike the referendum result, which caught the markets by surprise).
For 2 years after we trigger A50 the markets will react to every rumour about our post Brexit arrangements. A very tough situation for business as it will be very unpredictable. |
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#73 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,100
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The only silver lining I can see is that triggering A50 has been so well sign posted that our currency value probably has already taken this into account. Apart from a one day jitter, I doubt actually triggering it will do much (unlike the referendum result, which caught the markets by surprise).
For 2 years after we trigger A50 the markets will react to every rumour about our post Brexit arrangements. A very tough situation for business as it will be very unpredictable. The Supreme Court ruling on use of RP is likely to be a much more significant currency event. If the government unexpectedly wins its appeal, sterling will crash horribly. If the government loses as expected, sterling will rise a fair bit as it will make triggering article 50 much more difficult for the government. The two years that follow the triggering of article 50 are going to be absolutely brutal for sterling: On the EU side, it will be a legitimate tactic to talk tough and try to pressure the UK gov by saying things that negatively impact the British currency and economy. EU officials know the court of public opinion will play a big role in the kind of deal the UK government will ultimately choose to pursue. If the economy is crashing and sterling is on life-support, the UK government will be under enormous pressure to pursue the softest of soft brexits. Support for any kind of brexit will be hitting historic lows at this point, as the jobless count rises, and the cost of living escalates. So I expect a lot of loose language from EU officials through the next 2-3 years that will send sterling crashing downwards. And of course initially at least the UK government is going to want to talk tough and look tough too going into the negotiations once article 50 is triggered. That is not going to be good for sterling either. You'll need balls of steel to take bullish positions on sterling for the next 2-3 years. Longterm you'll win if you can last it out, but you'd have to be crazy to be buying at current levels when it's almost impossible to imagine how sterling is not going to see heavier falls in the years ahead that create even better buying opportunities. |
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#74 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,479
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Yes the act of triggering article 50 is unlikely to have any significant impact on currency as long as it remains carefully planned out and follows a predictable timetable. Only if it requires a sudden and dramatic deal in parliament to secure the authorisation for triggering article 50, will the currency markets react significantly.
The Supreme Court ruling on use of RP is likely to be a much more significant currency event. If the government unexpectedly wins its appeal, sterling will crash horribly. If the government loses as expected, sterling will rise a fair bit as it will make triggering article 50 much more difficult for the government. The two years that follow the triggering of article 50 are going to be absolutely brutal for sterling: On the EU side, it will be a legitimate tactic to talk tough and try to pressure the UK gov by saying things that negatively impact the British currency and economy. EU officials know the court of public opinion will play a big role in the kind of deal the UK government will ultimately choose to pursue. If the economy is crashing and sterling is on life-support, the UK government will be under enormous pressure to pursue the softest of soft brexits. Support for any kind of brexit will be hitting historic lows at this point, as the jobless count rises, and the cost of living escalates. So I expect a lot of loose language from EU officials through the next 2-3 years that will send sterling crashing downwards. And of course initially at least the UK government is going to want to talk tough and look tough too going into the negotiations once article 50 is triggered. That is not going to be good for sterling either. You'll need balls of steel to take bullish positions on sterling for the next 2-3 years. Longterm you'll win if you can last it out, but you'd have to be crazy to be buying at current levels when it's almost impossible to imagine how sterling is not going to see heavier falls in the years ahead that create even better buying opportunities. Everything else you write is just common sense (something in short supply on these forums!). |
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#75 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,100
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The only part I disagree with is the impact of the Supreme Court. Very few MPs will oppose a bill to trigger A50, so whatever the SC decides, A50 will be triggered in March. I think the markets will not move on the SC ruling either way.
Everything else you write is just common sense (something in short supply on these forums!). Bigger picture none of this very short-term forex trading really matters of course. It's the next 2-3 years we broadly agree on that really counts. And these next few years are really going to hurt those of us who need a stable currency to run our businesses most effectively. |
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