Tell me, a) What is anti British about stating a fact? b) Yes currency does go up and down, but when have you known sterling to perform as badly as it has this year?

You seem to have missed the comment that sterling is the second worst performing currency.

Is it the second worst then?

I bet Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and the Daily Express never thought in their wildest dreams that British Sterling would be lumped in with the Argentine Peso, Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pound and the Venezuelan Bolivar in the same sentence as being the world's worst performing currencies of 2016.

Yet the Daily Express constantly bangs on about the Euro.

The trading level, both directions, is unlikely to seriously change at all, before or after we leave.

I expect the Germans in the twenties living under the Weimar Republic would have disagreed with your evaluation of the situation.

That's the Oriental version, in English it's Hokey Cokey.

Why would we think it's true, it's an opinion.

So the Scots must be bigots then for a movement that wants to leave the UK, Catalonians must be bigots for wanting to leave Spain etc etc

Look at it as an opportunity to pay us what you owe us on the cheap.

German hyperinflation June 1921 and January 1924.
But once freefall stoped... the years 1924 to 1929 were known as the 'Golden Years' as Germany became increasingly prosperous. The economy rapidly grew and unemployed fell. The German economy grew more rapidly than its European competitors and by 1928 German industrial workers were the highest paid in Europe.

I think you're making the mistake of seeing the currency as a macho symbol of a nations virility. A high currency makes an economy uncompetitive, something Britain's suffered from many times in the past. The fall of sterling is good for business, good for our farmers who are selling more abroad. Not so good for Ireland's farmers, some of whom are being priced out of the UK market.

Who said they accurately look ahead? Not me! They just price in future expectations; where it is now is the current market's future expectation and as long as they do better than chance, they are onto a winner.

A) The poster I believe is Irish. And keeps posting downbeat threads about Britain. That suggests to me he doesn't like Britain very much.
B) you have a very short memory. Sterling reached €1.03 back in 2010. That's a worse performance than now. Did the world cave in then? No. But don't let that ruin your melodramatic narrative.

Have we ever been the second worst performing currency in the world? Is it melodramatic to be concerned about that? Did our currency not take a massive hit the day after BREXIT referendum? Has it recovered it's pre Referendum status. Did the BofE not pump billions into the economy to stabilise it? Who do you think has paid and will continue to pay for that?

Do you think if people stop 'talking down' the economy things will just magically sort themselves out - do you think the rest of the world haven't noticed?

You talk of melodramatic narrative - I'd call yours delusional.

It's not delusional at all. Don't be so rude. We've had lots of times where the pound has had a rough ride in our history. It always recovers. It has been historically overvalued. The rate it's at now is probably fair value. It's actually helping our exports. It's helping visiting tourists and it's helping our current account deficit. Unlike the snowflakes on here, I don't lie awake at night and revel in the constant ramble on here that it's the second worst performing currency in the world which is just against the dollar by the way. I look on the bright side and think it's actually helping our economy. Something that economically illiterate remoaners cannot grasp. Also, where were you just 5 or 6 years ago, when the pound reached €1.03 which is actually a worse performance than now. Did you spontaneously combust with the stress of it all? It went back up didn't it? Did the world stop spinning on its axis back then?

And you call people melodramatic? When people are facing facts and talking realistically I suppose it always helps the counter argument to use melodramatic language and then accuse the other side of just the same thing.

When Brexiteers are faced with realism it seems they constantly change the language into hyperbolic nonsense and call it Project Fear.

Madness.

Well it is easy to mix you up with another Irish poster ever since you responded thinking you were on this account but used your other account.

I would guess no.

Yes

Yes

It never lost so still has the status of a reserve currency. Assuming by status you mean value no.

No.
The Bank of England as part of its function as a central bank does $ repo auctions weekly and longer dated $ repo auctions monthly to assist currency liquidity. To aid the banks manage currency volatility in the period before and immediately after the referendum the Bank of England held some additional $ repo auctions. $ repo auctions are not money spent they are banks bidding against each other to borrow money off the Bank of England in short-term loans, in effect helping the banks hedge currency and ensuring liquidity in currency, for a fee.

No one. As what you seem to think the Bank of England did is not what the Bank of England did.

The economy since the referendum vote is doing well.
2015 UK GDP Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.5% Q3 +0.3% Q4 +0.7%
2016 UK GDP Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.6% Q3 +06%

Exports are up, balance of trade has improved, unemployment is down, number of job vacancies is up, average wages are rising.


It is not simply melodramatic to be alarmed at a fall in the currency its misguided. A drop in currency value as long as it stabilizes rather than is in continual free-fall is going forward good for a country's competitiveness, and economic growth.

Your post makes no sense at all.
How can I respond with another account when I have only one?

So you think that a period of freefall is a good thing then?

It helps the brexiteers sleep at night, so yes, we will be seeing this for quite some time. They seem almost proud of it. Quite bizarre!

I guess brexiteers don't leave the country much, it is has absolutely hammered those of us who enjoy travelling or buying goods from abroad, but that doesn't matter does it, because brexit is apparently good for me, even though it's left me and most of my friends and family worse off and has had a negative impact on my lifestyle. And it's not even really started yet! Let's see all the currency experts come out in 2017 and still rejoice when we are number 1 for worst performing currency...but I'm sure it will just be written off as "anti British fear-mongering". It has nowhere near recovered to pre-brexit levels either, that's total nonsense.

The only silver lining I can see is that triggering A50 has been so well sign posted that our currency value probably has already taken this into account. Apart from a one day jitter, I doubt actually triggering it will do much (unlike the referendum result, which caught the markets by surprise).

For 2 years after we trigger A50 the markets will react to every rumour about our post Brexit arrangements. A very tough situation for business as it will be very unpredictable.

Yes the act of triggering article 50 is unlikely to have any significant impact on currency as long as it remains carefully planned out and follows a predictable timetable. Only if it requires a sudden and dramatic deal in parliament to secure the authorisation for triggering article 50, will the currency markets react significantly.

The Supreme Court ruling on use of RP is likely to be a much more significant currency event. If the government unexpectedly wins its appeal, sterling will crash horribly. If the government loses as expected, sterling will rise a fair bit as it will make triggering article 50 much more difficult for the government.

The two years that follow the triggering of article 50 are going to be absolutely brutal for sterling:

On the EU side, it will be a legitimate tactic to talk tough and try to pressure the UK gov by saying things that negatively impact the British currency and economy. EU officials know the court of public opinion will play a big role in the kind of deal the UK government will ultimately choose to pursue. If the economy is crashing and sterling is on life-support, the UK government will be under enormous pressure to pursue the softest of soft brexits. Support for any kind of brexit will be hitting historic lows at this point, as the jobless count rises, and the cost of living escalates. So I expect a lot of loose language from EU officials through the next 2-3 years that will send sterling crashing downwards.

And of course initially at least the UK government is going to want to talk tough and look tough too going into the negotiations once article 50 is triggered. That is not going to be good for sterling either.

You'll need balls of steel to take bullish positions on sterling for the next 2-3 years. Longterm you'll win if you can last it out, but you'd have to be crazy to be buying at current levels when it's almost impossible to imagine how sterling is not going to see heavier falls in the years ahead that create even better buying opportunities.

The only part I disagree with is the impact of the Supreme Court. Very few MPs will oppose a bill to trigger A50, so whatever the SC decides, A50 will be triggered in March. I think the markets will not move on the SC ruling either way.

Everything else you write is just common sense (something in short supply on these forums!).

I'll be amazed if we don't see a bounce in sterling in the immediate aftermath of the ruling against the gov. It's an obvious trading opportunity either way and speculators won't be able to resist getting in on the action and it will create spikes in either direction (depending on the ruling). Support for sterling in the aftermath of the government losing will be buoyed by politicians playing to the cameras and talking tough. I'm sure it will be a time-limited rally for as long as it's not entirely certain the gov can and will win a vote on triggering article 50.

Bigger picture none of this very short-term forex trading really matters of course. It's the next 2-3 years we broadly agree on that really counts. And these next few years are really going to hurt those of us who need a stable currency to run our businesses most effectively.