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"Brexit is much more complicated than Theresa May is prepared to admit"


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Old 28-12-2016, 21:29
TheEngineer
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Insiders keep leaking the same message: Brexit is much more complicated than Theresa May is prepared to admit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit...-of-it-2016-12

Brexit is going to be much more complicated than Prime Minister Theresa May is prepared to admit, according to Dave Penman, general secretary of the senior civil servants union.

He told the Guardian, "The government is clearly in a situation where they are trying to deny the complexity of it.”

The admission is the latest in a string of hints coming out of Westminster that the Article 50 process is unlikely to be done in the two years allotted by the Lisbon Treaty.

If these voices are right, it throws doubt on whether May really can trigger Article 50 in March 2017.
The article makes an interesting point about Article 50 though
In theory, Britain could extend the Article 50 process indefinitely by triggering and then withdrawing its request repeatedly. The threat of stringing out an indefinitely reversible process is one of the few weapons the UK actually has inside Article 50, which is structurally rigged against countries that want to leave.
If correct that would give the UK more bargaining power with the EU. Something that is very much needed.
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Old 28-12-2016, 21:57
MARTYM8
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Everyone knows its complicated - its just another illustration of why we need to get out.

Having eastern and Central Europe nations escaping Soviet control and becoming democracies with new constitutions and market economies wasn't straightforward either in the 1990s. On your logic they shouldn't have bothered as it was all too complicated.

Next please.
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Old 28-12-2016, 22:26
i4u
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Everyone knows its complicated - its just another illustration of why we need to get out.

Having eastern and Central Europe nations escaping Soviet control and becoming democracies with new constitutions and market economies wasn't straightforward either in the 1990s. On your logic they shouldn't have bothered as it was all too complicated.

Next please.
Has anyone noticed how Leave voters keep changing their tune ?

During the referendum they stressed how easy it was to quit the EU...just repel the 1972 Act and the job was done...

John Redwood, Edward Leigh, Bernard Jenkins, Rees-Mogg etc don't believe it's difficult to quit, the statement that everyone knows it is complicated is not true, as witnessed by the numerous contributions to Digital Spy claiming it was easy to quit.

The whole Brexit thing is a waste of Billions of pounds in an attempt to negotiate a deal similar to what we already have.
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Old 28-12-2016, 22:34
Aneechik
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Leaving is easy. What's difficult is negotiating a trade deal that everyone's happy with.
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Old 28-12-2016, 22:35
Eurostar
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Everyone knows its complicated - its just another illustration of why we need to get out.

Having eastern and Central Europe nations escaping Soviet control and becoming democracies with new constitutions and market economies wasn't straightforward either in the 1990s. On your logic they shouldn't have bothered as it was all too complicated.

Next please.
The analogy of a country gaining independence with one choosing to leave a trading bloc / political union it has been voluntarily and freely been a part of is not a particularly good one. In any event, the countries who left the Soviet Union had to go through many years of hardship before they could get their economies in any way functioning properly.
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Old 28-12-2016, 22:42
MARTYM8
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The analogy of a country gaining independence with one choosing to leave a trading bloc / political union it has been voluntarily and freely been a part of is not a particularly good one. In any event, the countries who left the Soviet Union had to go through many years of hardship before they could get their economies in any way functioning properly.
The EU is a political union where EU law overrides national laws. It has every similarity - because if you don't set your own laws, don't fully control your own borders and currency and monetary policy and who you pay welfare too you are not really independent at all.

At least the ex communist states had elections for their Presidents - even if there was only one candidate. The EU has seven Presidents - none of whom is elected by European citizens directly.
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Old 28-12-2016, 23:16
i4u
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At least the ex communist states had elections for their Presidents - even if there was only one candidate. The EU has seven Presidents - none of whom is elected by European citizens directly.
We have a Prime Minister and Cabinet none of whom is elected by the British electorate, and they have far more power.
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Old 28-12-2016, 23:39
alan29
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Leaving is easy. What's difficult is negotiating a trade deal that everyone's happy with.
What is really difficult is persuading talented civil servants that their career won't be blighted if they join the Brexit team as their senior managers have been threatening. Significant promotions have offered to people who have agreed not to transfer from their present departments.
Framing legislation that won't create endless opportunities for lawyers to earn vast sums from challenging possible loopholes is proving very difficult too.
Leaving is proving to be far from easy. Thats why there is no plan.
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Old 28-12-2016, 23:59
Blofeld
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The EU is a political union where EU law overrides national laws. It has every similarity - because if you don't set your own laws, don't fully control your own borders and currency and monetary policy and who you pay welfare too you are not really independent at all.

At least the ex communist states had elections for their Presidents - even if there was only one candidate. The EU has seven Presidents - none of whom is elected by European citizens directly.
Deliberate misleading comment here though. Yes, EU law overrides UK law in very precise areas where EU law actually applies, almost all of it relating to trade and barely anything at all relating to how we actually live our lives. Every single area where EU law comes over UK law has been scrutinised, debated, ratified and introduced by the 100% sovereign UK parliament.

To suggest any EU member is not an independent country is comical and I am wondering how much mileage the brexiteers think they can get out of this lie. Are you all seriously pretending that Germany or France aren't independent states? They don't operate thier own embassies? Have thier own elections, issue thier own passports, have thier own citizenship laws...?

Agreeing to common immigration and trade laws with your closest neighbours and treating each others citizens as equals does not erode sovereignty, especially when it's done freely between all member states. Every single country in the EU is 100% independent and in charge of it's own destiny, they merely choose to co-operate and adopt common laws in some areas to better co-operate with one another. Your comparison with the Soviet Union shows utter ignorance on what either the EU or USSR are/were. It's laughable that such attitudes exist purely because of the negative xenophobic press we have in this country.

When was the last time we elected our head of state in the UK? Please tell me because It has slipped my mind.

The EU presidents have no power over national governments and no matter how much you seem to think they do, they simply don't. Never has an EU President stepped in and said to a member state that we don't like your choice of government, please try again. Never have they interfered in elections in any country. You will probably cite Ireland...but then you ignore that it was the 100% sovereign Irish Government who decided to re-run their referendum on the Lisbon treaty and not the EU. The people of Ireland accepted the treaty when changes were made...yet people like yourself scream that is undemocratic for some mysterious reason. Had remain won you lot would have been up in arms demanding a new vote the next day...Nigel said it himself!

EU presidents are merely figure heads for the bloc, there to act as a leader when one is needed on the world stage. The UN has leaders, NATO has leaders, APEC, MERCOSUR, CARICOM, The African Union, Pacific Island Forum, the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the British Irish Council, NAFTA, WTO, WHO, UNICEF...I could go on...they all have someone at the top who has the authority to speak on behalf of the group and not a single one is elected by the people they represent, but Brexiteers have decided that because it's Europe..that it is worth frothing at the mouth over.

Of course brexit is more complicated than she imagined. It's totally outside the competence of one government. This should have caused a coming together of all parties and levels of government to ensure it is done properly and in a way which represents all views, but no, the typical Tory smugness has just steamrollered any sensible approach to Brexit and we will end up with a very drawn out, expensive, complicated and damaging process.
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Old 29-12-2016, 00:57
Jayceef1
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We have a Prime Minister and Cabinet none of whom is elected by the British electorate, and they have far more power.
Remind me the last time we elected a Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Do you not understand how we vote in the UK?
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Old 29-12-2016, 01:12
i4u
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Remind me the last time we elected a Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Do you not understand how we vote in the UK?
If you don't know when we last elected a Prime Minister, then it's you who don't understand the UK voting system.

Someone was complaining about EU Presidents being unelected by the British public, the same is true of our Prime Minister, who has more power, can trigger a nuclear attack.
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Old 29-12-2016, 01:12
thenetworkbabe
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Leaving is easy. What's difficult is negotiating a trade deal that everyone's happy with.
Whats difficult is undoing , replacing, and, supposedly, changing ,and expanding, 40 years of laws, treaties, agreemnets and financial arrangements, in a timescale that won't leave us starving , waiting for the new picture to be put together. He's right that this was under-estimated , but thats because the leave voters had no idea what they were doing.

The First Division Civil Servants, of course, were always going to say that this needed more first division civil servants, with higher salaries.

Blaming May though seems pointless - she can't grow enough top civil servants, with relevant backgrounds, even if there was more money to do so. Its bound to be a case of buying in over-priced consultants, or muddling through.
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Old 29-12-2016, 01:44
Aye Up
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Has anyone noticed how Leave voters keep changing their tune ?

During the referendum they stressed how easy it was to quit the EU...just repel the 1972 Act and the job was done....
Which Brexit supporters?

I haven't changed my tune and won't either. From a technical standpoint, if the UK Government was in a position to do so, it could trigger Article 50 tomorrow and leave the EU the day after with no trade deal.....suppose that would be hard brexit?

Leaving is easy. What's difficult is negotiating a trade deal that everyone's happy with.
BINGO! All we have to do is grandfather in the EU laws and trade deals with other countries (nothing legally stopping us keeping them even after leaving). Though that may not suit our economy.

We have a Prime Minister and Cabinet none of whom is elected by the British electorate, and they have far more power.
The PM and subsquent cabinet are elected, they are all sittingf MPs who are chosen via their constituency. We don't live in a direct democracy, only a representative one, and it is a model which is copied the world over. Westminster parliamentary democracy is the most popular model of its kind anywhere. Most commonwealth nations have a form of it, all the countries where the Queen is monarch have it too.

Everyone in the house of commons is elected, you maybe getting confused with a time over 100 years ago the PM would always be appointed from the HoL.

If you don't know when we last elected a Prime Minister, then it's you who don't understand the UK voting system.

Someone was complaining about EU Presidents being unelected by the British public, the same is true of our Prime Minister, who has more power, can trigger a nuclear attack.
You are the one getting it wrong, May and Brown being the most prominent recent examples were both elected at the ballot box....they have their electoral mandate. Any sitting MP is "duly elected"
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Old 29-12-2016, 04:42
Parker45
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Deliberate misleading comment here though. Yes, EU law overrides UK law in very precise areas where EU law actually applies, almost all of it relating to trade and barely anything at all relating to how we actually live our lives. Every single area where EU law comes over UK law has been scrutinised, debated, ratified and introduced by the 100% sovereign UK parliament.

To suggest any EU member is not an independent country is comical and I am wondering how much mileage the brexiteers think they can get out of this lie. Are you all seriously pretending that Germany or France aren't independent states? They don't operate thier own embassies? Have thier own elections, issue thier own passports, have thier own citizenship laws...?

Agreeing to common immigration and trade laws with your closest neighbours and treating each others citizens as equals does not erode sovereignty, especially when it's done freely between all member states. Every single country in the EU is 100% independent and in charge of it's own destiny, they merely choose to co-operate and adopt common laws in some areas to better co-operate with one another. Your comparison with the Soviet Union shows utter ignorance on what either the EU or USSR are/were. It's laughable that such attitudes exist purely because of the negative xenophobic press we have in this country.

When was the last time we elected our head of state in the UK? Please tell me because It has slipped my mind.

The EU presidents have no power over national governments and no matter how much you seem to think they do, they simply don't. Never has an EU President stepped in and said to a member state that we don't like your choice of government, please try again. Never have they interfered in elections in any country. You will probably cite Ireland...but then you ignore that it was the 100% sovereign Irish Government who decided to re-run their referendum on the Lisbon treaty and not the EU. The people of Ireland accepted the treaty when changes were made...yet people like yourself scream that is undemocratic for some mysterious reason. Had remain won you lot would have been up in arms demanding a new vote the next day...Nigel said it himself!

EU presidents are merely figure heads for the bloc, there to act as a leader when one is needed on the world stage. The UN has leaders, NATO has leaders, APEC, MERCOSUR, CARICOM, The African Union, Pacific Island Forum, the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the British Irish Council, NAFTA, WTO, WHO, UNICEF...I could go on...they all have someone at the top who has the authority to speak on behalf of the group and not a single one is elected by the people they represent, but Brexiteers have decided that because it's Europe..that it is worth frothing at the mouth over.

Of course brexit is more complicated than she imagined. It's totally outside the competence of one government. This should have caused a coming together of all parties and levels of government to ensure it is done properly and in a way which represents all views, but no, the typical Tory smugness has just steamrollered any sensible approach to Brexit and we will end up with a very drawn out, expensive, complicated and damaging process.
It's a pity the British public weren't given something as articulate as this by the Remain side during the referendum campaign.
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Old 29-12-2016, 05:05
Mr Oleo Strut
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Deliberate misleading comment here though. Yes, EU law overrides UK law in very precise areas where EU law actually applies, almost all of it relating to trade and barely anything at all relating to how we actually live our lives. Every single area where EU law comes over UK law has been scrutinised, debated, ratified and introduced by the 100% sovereign UK parliament.

To suggest any EU member is not an independent country is comical and I am wondering how much mileage the brexiteers think they can get out of this lie. Are you all seriously pretending that Germany or France aren't independent states? They don't operate thier own embassies? Have thier own elections, issue thier own passports, have thier own citizenship laws...?

Agreeing to common immigration and trade laws with your closest neighbours and treating each others citizens as equals does not erode sovereignty, especially when it's done freely between all member states. Every single country in the EU is 100% independent and in charge of it's own destiny, they merely choose to co-operate and adopt common laws in some areas to better co-operate with one another. Your comparison with the Soviet Union shows utter ignorance on what either the EU or USSR are/were. It's laughable that such attitudes exist purely because of the negative xenophobic press we have in this country.

When was the last time we elected our head of state in the UK? Please tell me because It has slipped my mind.

The EU presidents have no power over national governments and no matter how much you seem to think they do, they simply don't. Never has an EU President stepped in and said to a member state that we don't like your choice of government, please try again. Never have they interfered in elections in any country. You will probably cite Ireland...but then you ignore that it was the 100% sovereign Irish Government who decided to re-run their referendum on the Lisbon treaty and not the EU. The people of Ireland accepted the treaty when changes were made...yet people like yourself scream that is undemocratic for some mysterious reason. Had remain won you lot would have been up in arms demanding a new vote the next day...Nigel said it himself!

EU presidents are merely figure heads for the bloc, there to act as a leader when one is needed on the world stage. The UN has leaders, NATO has leaders, APEC, MERCOSUR, CARICOM, The African Union, Pacific Island Forum, the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the British Irish Council, NAFTA, WTO, WHO, UNICEF...I could go on...they all have someone at the top who has the authority to speak on behalf of the group and not a single one is elected by the people they represent, but Brexiteers have decided that because it's Europe..that it is worth frothing at the mouth over.

Of course brexit is more complicated than she imagined. It's totally outside the competence of one government. This should have caused a coming together of all parties and levels of government to ensure it is done properly and in a way which represents all views, but no, the typical Tory smugness has just steamrollered any sensible approach to Brexit and we will end up with a very drawn out, expensive, complicated and damaging process.
Well done, Blofeld, your forensic dissection of Brexit lies and spin should be mandatory reading for all and sums up the truly awful black hole facing the UK. We can only hope or pray that common sense will prevail. In the meantime we must all keep on hammering away at the complete folly of Brexit.
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Old 29-12-2016, 08:11
alan29
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Deliberate misleading comment here though. Yes, EU law overrides UK law in very precise areas where EU law actually applies, almost all of it relating to trade and barely anything at all relating to how we actually live our lives. Every single area where EU law comes over UK law has been scrutinised, debated, ratified and introduced by the 100% sovereign UK parliament.

To suggest any EU member is not an independent country is comical and I am wondering how much mileage the brexiteers think they can get out of this lie. Are you all seriously pretending that Germany or France aren't independent states? They don't operate thier own embassies? Have thier own elections, issue thier own passports, have thier own citizenship laws...?

Agreeing to common immigration and trade laws with your closest neighbours and treating each others citizens as equals does not erode sovereignty, especially when it's done freely between all member states. Every single country in the EU is 100% independent and in charge of it's own destiny, they merely choose to co-operate and adopt common laws in some areas to better co-operate with one another. Your comparison with the Soviet Union shows utter ignorance on what either the EU or USSR are/were. It's laughable that such attitudes exist purely because of the negative xenophobic press we have in this country.

When was the last time we elected our head of state in the UK? Please tell me because It has slipped my mind.

The EU presidents have no power over national governments and no matter how much you seem to think they do, they simply don't. Never has an EU President stepped in and said to a member state that we don't like your choice of government, please try again. Never have they interfered in elections in any country. You will probably cite Ireland...but then you ignore that it was the 100% sovereign Irish Government who decided to re-run their referendum on the Lisbon treaty and not the EU. The people of Ireland accepted the treaty when changes were made...yet people like yourself scream that is undemocratic for some mysterious reason. Had remain won you lot would have been up in arms demanding a new vote the next day...Nigel said it himself!

EU presidents are merely figure heads for the bloc, there to act as a leader when one is needed on the world stage. The UN has leaders, NATO has leaders, APEC, MERCOSUR, CARICOM, The African Union, Pacific Island Forum, the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the British Irish Council, NAFTA, WTO, WHO, UNICEF...I could go on...they all have someone at the top who has the authority to speak on behalf of the group and not a single one is elected by the people they represent, but Brexiteers have decided that because it's Europe..that it is worth frothing at the mouth over.

Of course brexit is more complicated than she imagined. It's totally outside the competence of one government. This should have caused a coming together of all parties and levels of government to ensure it is done properly and in a way which represents all views, but no, the typical Tory smugness has just steamrollered any sensible approach to Brexit and we will end up with a very drawn out, expensive, complicated and damaging process.
Excellent summary.
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Old 29-12-2016, 09:45
Doctor_Wibble
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The First Division Civil Servants, of course, were always going to say that this needed more first division civil servants, with higher salaries.
But of course the civil service are completely neutral with no view or opinion whatsoever and therefore it falls to the union representative (should check, presumably not a civil servant) who is permitted to have opinions on the political masters and of course to suggest that the best move is the one that purely by coincidence boosts the membership.


On the remark in the article, I thought the way it works is the politicians do the grandstanding and directing, and the civil servants are the ones who handle the details and practicalities, and it's no surprise that there is disagreement when it comes to 'views of simplicity of implementation' because that's what happens in pretty much anything where managers aren't expected to be experts.

I can't bring myself to be shocked, outraged, surprised etc at the remarks.
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:15
Annsyre
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Insiders keep leaking the same message: Brexit is much more complicated than Theresa May is prepared to admit

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit...-of-it-2016-12



The article makes an interesting point about Article 50 though


If correct that would give the UK more bargaining power with the EU. Something that is very much needed.
"Insiders" and "leakers" are not the most reliable source of accurate information - they are decitful and obviously have a hidden agenda.
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:19
jmclaugh
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In other words the "it's all too complicated" card which has of course been played before, just like most of what the OP starts threads on.
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:23
swingaleg
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Leaving is easy. What's difficult is negotiating a trade deal that everyone's happy with.
Yeah, that's right

The Government is acting responsibly in attempting to sort out the future arrangements before we leave so as to avoid that 'cliff edge'. It's obviously much more time consuming and complex to be working on hundreds of deals concerning every sector of the economy and much law, the whole question of replacing subsidies and regulations etc etc

The hardliners like Gove, Lilley, Rees-Mogg etc have the attitude 'sod the future, let's just get out'
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:43
pedrok
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But of course the civil service are completely neutral with no view or opinion whatsoever and therefore it falls to the union representative (should check, presumably not a civil servant) who is permitted to have opinions on the political masters and of course to suggest that the best move is the one that purely by coincidence boosts the membership.


On the remark in the article, I thought the way it works is the politicians do the grandstanding and directing, and the civil servants are the ones who handle the details and practicalities, and it's no surprise that there is disagreement when it comes to 'views of simplicity of implementation' because that's what happens in pretty much anything where managers aren't expected to be experts.

I can't bring myself to be shocked, outraged, surprised etc at the remarks.
The FDA represent the Senior Civil Service, and whilst the Senior Civil Service will be important in the Brexit negotiations, it is those underneath who are dealing with the day to day stuff. Increasing the staff numbers underneath will not increase the membership of the FDA.
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:52
alan29
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In other words the "it's all too complicated" card which has of course been played before, just like most of what the OP starts threads on.
Amazed you haven't resorted to "Project fear" the usual pacifier used by Brexiteers to calm themselves when complex arguments are put forward.
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Old 29-12-2016, 10:56
jmclaugh
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Amazed you haven't resorted to "Project fear" the usual pacifier used by Brexiteers to calm themselves when complex arguments are put forward.
I'm pleased to have amazed you.
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Old 29-12-2016, 11:06
Doctor_Wibble
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The FDA represent the Senior Civil Service, and whilst the Senior Civil Service will be important in the Brexit negotiations, it is those underneath who are dealing with the day to day stuff. Increasing the staff numbers underneath will not increase the membership of the FDA.
It will indirectly because more staff will require more managers, therefore more people at the appropriate level, therefore more FDA members.
It's all part of the long-term plan to ensure the posh private clubs with the cigar rooms don't get closed
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Old 29-12-2016, 18:23
Rodney
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Look, let's just get the hell out first, and then worry about the finer details!
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