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$290B of trade at risk due to Brexit |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,004
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$290B of trade at risk due to Brexit
That's right, that's the amount that the EU could lose if they don't find a way to keep the UK within the protectionist zone.
With the UK leaving the common market, the rest of the world will now have a chance at selling to us. This puts things like Irish Beef at risk from cheaper argentinian beef or cars and car parts open to the world market. On top of that, the EU financial services markets are going to need a form of passporting to allow them access to the UK market. I expect that most of the advanced EU countries will stay equivalent to the UK sector to allow this, although as we know they will need to apply to the FCA for these and that could take a while. So the question is will all of these imposed tarriffs and passporting rules that the EU wants to impose make or break any of the other EU countries. I suspect that no matter what Germany will come out ok, but what about Italy or even spain with it's massive trade surplus in services to us, will they survice! |
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#2 |
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 30,189
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Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
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#3 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Crystal Palace TX
Posts: 19,702
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Quote:
Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
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#4 |
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 47,995
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Quote:
Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
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#5 |
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
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Quote:
Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
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#6 |
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,161
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£290BN/yr is the current total EU=>UK exports
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ Are you saying that the UK will stop all trade with the EU after Brexit? ![]() Are you saying that the UK will definitely impose tariffs on EU imports? (to reciprocate automatically imposed trade bloc tariffs for non-members) Under WTO rules, we (as a single country) are not obliged to impose tariffs on other countries or blocs. However, if we do, then the same MFN WTO tariffs for the same goods have to be applied to all other countries, i.e. if you have 0 tariffs for one country then you must have 0 tariffs for all other countries for the same products. So it would be detrimental to us if we imposed tariffs on the EU, because then we wouldn't be able to exercise free trade under WTO rules with any other country, and would need to set up FTA deals with them all instead (to remove the tariffs)... which could take quite some time.... The EU on the other hand is a trade bloc / customs union / glorified protection racket, and WTO tariffs are automatically imposed on all non-members by default (the average tariff may only be around 3%, but it's 10% on cars and 20-40% on agriculture). The only way for non-members to remove them is via an FTA deal (for goods and some services) - with European countries having other options such as EFTA (for goods, services & capital) or EUCU (for goods only, not services/capital). Yes, I expect there to be less trade between the UK<=>EU after brexit, but a certain percentage of it will continue.... though, as you say, the most losses (on both sides) will be due to there being no two-way free movement of services, financial services, capital & banking passport (and labour, in some cases) - unless there's some kind of bilateral agreement deal to keep/reimplement them (whether via EEA/EFTA or FTA) - again, which could take a considerable number of years. As always, we shall see.... |
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#7 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,000
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Quite correct. Both sides stand to lose massively from a so-called "hard-Brexit".
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#8 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,637
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Quote:
Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
![]() There would be no Project Fear V2 to fantasise about if we hadn't had Cameron and Osborne's ridiculous 'Rant & Threat' double act prior to the vote. And, as we all know, 'Leave merchants' will enter 2017 chirpier than ever, while the turning of the calendar will send Remain diehards into increasing despondency. ![]() ![]()
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#9 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Crystal Palace TX
Posts: 19,702
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Quote:
Quite correct. Both sides stand to lose massively from a so-called "hard-Brexit".
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#10 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,004
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Quote:
Quite correct. Both sides stand to lose massively from a so-called "hard-Brexit".
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#11 |
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: North West
Posts: 4,883
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Quote:
Yawn....yet another trolling Project Fear thread from the doom & gloom Leave merchants.
He voted to Remain in the EU Ref. |
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#12 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,582
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Quote:
That's right, that's the amount that the EU could lose if they don't find a way to keep the UK within the protectionist zone.
With the UK leaving the common market, the rest of the world will now have a chance at selling to us. This puts things like Irish Beef at risk from cheaper argentinian beef or cars and car parts open to the world market. On top of that, the EU financial services markets are going to need a form of passporting to allow them access to the UK market. I expect that most of the advanced EU countries will stay equivalent to the UK sector to allow this, although as we know they will need to apply to the FCA for these and that could take a while. So the question is will all of these imposed tarriffs and passporting rules that the EU wants to impose make or break any of the other EU countries. I suspect that no matter what Germany will come out ok, but what about Italy or even spain with it's massive trade surplus in services to us, will they survice! The answer is both, as long as you continue to make a profit. You really think businesses around the world will stop trading with Germany & France because Britain businesses have started offering inferior products at higher prices. Of course you could be right. Our government could cut corporation tax to zero, dispose of business rates, give subsidies to our private companies & remove employee pay protection to ensure we are competitive. |
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#13 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,311
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Quote:
That's right, that's the amount that the EU could lose if they don't find a way to keep the UK within the protectionist zone.
With the UK leaving the common market, the rest of the world will now have a chance at selling to us. This puts things like Irish Beef at risk from cheaper argentinian beef or cars and car parts open to the world market. On top of that, the EU financial services markets are going to need a form of passporting to allow them access to the UK market. I expect that most of the advanced EU countries will stay equivalent to the UK sector to allow this, although as we know they will need to apply to the FCA for these and that could take a while. So the question is will all of these imposed tarriffs and passporting rules that the EU wants to impose make or break any of the other EU countries. I suspect that no matter what Germany will come out ok, but what about Italy or even spain with it's massive trade surplus in services to us, will they survice! |
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#14 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
Posts: 37,482
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Quote:
I do wonder how the EU will sell recession to it's own citizens on the back of the UK being treated like a leper. You hope that sense will prevail.
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