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Head of the German automobile industry association warns UK agains Hard Brexit.


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Old 31-12-2016, 12:18
cobis
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7501856.html

The people of Sunderland would be hit hard by tariffs and non-tariffs on 57 percent of their exports.

No wonder a recent poll carried by a local newspaper there shows massive swings towards Remaining in the EU. They no longer appear to believe that massive taxpayer subsidies are for ever !
do you have a link to this recent poll?
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:23
Doctor_Wibble
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:32
Mr Oleo Strut
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Looks like the German automotive industry has realised they're about to lose a lot of money. All the talk from some swivel eyed remainers about still buying their audis, bmws and vws, isn't ho to save them.

If the EU are so scared of the fallout from us leaving, then perhaps it's time they put in place a plan to keep trade and services flowing.
Still spraying insults, I note, towards those who don't share your ridiculous views. There are no volume British-owned car manufacturers left in the UK. There are foreign-owned car assembly plants, which are entirely portable. When are you people going to realize that it is in everybody's interests to achieve a good deal for both sides. Insulting your neighbours may appeal to guffawing Little Englanders, blinkered and cocooned by their own ignorance, but it won't roast their chestnuts. It will just lead to burnt fingers. Happy New Year!
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:37
Mark_Jones9
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No it masks our deep-seated problems such as low productivity ( below Portugal's). and even then, why have exports not risen since the devaluation?
Goods exports are up
Service exports are up

UK goods exports
£ billion, seasonally adjusted
2015 Jul 23.233
2015 Aug 23.708
2015 Sep 23.686
2015 Oct 22.969

2015 Nov 23.791
2015 Dec 24.161
2016 Jan 23.731
2016 Feb 23.374
2016 Mar 23.143
2016 Apr 25.587
2016 May 25.313
2016 Jun 24.668
2016 Jul 24.862
2016 Aug 24.979
2016 Sep 24.625
2016 Oct 26.759


UK services exports
£ billion, seasonally adjusted
2015 Jul 17.864
2015 Aug 18.311
2015 Sep 18.838
2015 Oct 19.285

2015 Nov 19.535
2015 Dec 19.579
2016 Jan 19.607
2016 Feb 19.525
2016 Mar 19.431
2016 Apr 19.372
2016 May 19.340
2016 Jun 19.326
2016 Jul 19.594
2016 Aug 19.727
2016 Sep 19.757
2016 Oct 19.653


Figures from spreadsheet attached to
Figure 4: Value of UK trade in goods, October 2014 to October 2016
Figure 11: Value of UK trade in services, October 2014 to October 2016
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...ktrade/oct2016
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:39
MargMck
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do you have a link to this recent poll?

It was a nonsense local paper online (onlie might be better) 'poll' where you could vote as much as you like, under various names, leave comments and claim to be from Sunderland while actually based anywhere.
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:41
Dacco
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T
I wasn't aware that May had stated that. After all, Leave did promise we'd be in a part of a "free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border".
So you're saying we will not leave the single market and therefore will not leave the EU?.
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:48
andykn
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So you're saying we will not leave the single market and therefore will not leave the EU?.
No, I'm saying we probably will leave the EU but I don't think May has said we're leaving the single market.
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:57
Dacco
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No, I'm saying we probably will leave the EU but I don't think May has said we're leaving the single market.
One is intrinsically linked with the other, how could you not be in the Single Market, accepting market regs and not be in the EU.
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:57
tahiti
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Old 31-12-2016, 12:59
Mark_Jones9
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Great, why doesn't everyone do it?
They do for example China has been accused of currency manipulation devaluing its own currency by the USA, or the try to for example Japan has been trying to devalue its currency.
I'm still waiting for a precise source for the export figures you quoted on the other thread, I couldn't find them in the ONS release.
Figures and source provide in post 29 of this thread in reply to tahiti.
The figures are in the spread sheets attached to the graphs
Figure 4: Value of UK trade in goods, October 2014 to October 2016
Figure 11: Value of UK trade in services, October 2014 to October 2016
in the ONS release.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...ktrade/oct2016
Some inflation is good, but a falling currency in a country with a high balance of payments deficit can result in more than just "some inflation"
The trade balance is improving down £4.1 billion in October.

Well, the BoE was forced to start it with over 60bn of our money pumped into private companies to keep the economy going after the vote.
£60 billion of UK government gilts. Gilts the Bank of England then forgoes the interest payments on.
Up to £10 billion of corporate bonds.
And it is not our money its QE money written into existence out of thin air.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi.../2016/008.aspx
The Govt seems to have rather lost control, perhaps senior Tories vetoing Osborne's emergency budget wasn't decided with the best interests of the economy in mind.
GDP is up and unemployment is down. inflation is below target and average wages are increasing faster than inflation.

UK GDP Quarter growth.
2015 Q1 0.3
2015 Q2 0.5
2015 Q3 0.3
2015 Q4 0.7
2016 Q1 0.3
2016 Q2 0.6
2016 Q3 0.6
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:11
tahiti
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Goods exports are up
Service exports are up

UK goods exports
£ billion, seasonally adjusted
2015 Jul 23.233
2015 Aug 23.708
2015 Sep 23.686
2015 Oct 22.969

2015 Nov 23.791
2015 Dec 24.161
2016 Jan 23.731
2016 Feb 23.374
2016 Mar 23.143
2016 Apr 25.587
2016 May 25.313
2016 Jun 24.668
2016 Jul 24.862
2016 Aug 24.979
2016 Sep 24.625
2016 Oct 26.759


UK services exports
£ billion, seasonally adjusted
2015 Jul 17.864
2015 Aug 18.311
2015 Sep 18.838
2015 Oct 19.285

2015 Nov 19.535
2015 Dec 19.579
2016 Jan 19.607
2016 Feb 19.525
2016 Mar 19.431
2016 Apr 19.372
2016 May 19.340
2016 Jun 19.326
2016 Jul 19.594
2016 Aug 19.727
2016 Sep 19.757
2016 Oct 19.653


Figures from spreadsheet attached to
Figure 4: Value of UK trade in goods, October 2014 to October 2016
Figure 11: Value of UK trade in services, October 2014 to October 2016
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...ktrade/oct2016

yep as I thought - all figures in gbp terms which has massively devalued.

also Venezuela has had an exceptional year I'm told.

how about in dollar terms hmm ? if you don't know how to do that look at my calculation in the FTSE 100 thread.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:25
andykn
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yep as I thought - all figures in gbp terms which has massively devalued.

also Venezuela has had an exceptional year I'm told.

how about in dollar terms hmm ? if you don't know how to do that look at my calculation in the FTSE 100 thread.
And anyway HMRC disagree:

"The total [goods] export trade for Q3 of 2016 was £72.8 billion, which was a decrease of 0.6 per cent compared with £73.3 billion for Q3 of 2015."

https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...lease_1016.pdf
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:27
Bob_Whinger
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Maybe he should be telling the German government rather than the UK. No-one in the UK wants tariffs imposed, it would be bad for the whole of Europe. The UK also does not want to continue paying billions of pounds to a corrupt, anti-democratic, failing, EU bureaucracy.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:28
Bob_Whinger
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One is intrinsically linked with the other, how could you not be in the Single Market, accepting market regs and not be in the EU.
They are not linked together.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:31
worzil
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I think he's saying a trade deal isn't enough, leaving the single market is what would be damaging.
It is the trade deal he is worried about .
He knows the EU sales more cars to the UK sales to the EU.
Drive anywhere in the UK and count the cars that come in from the EU our streets are full of them.
Do the same in any EU country count how many cars you see made in the UK that are left hand are left hand drives you will find the ones you see are top of the range cars most of us can't afford.
We are leaving the EU and people like this are trying to keep us still under their thumb.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:32
andykn
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They do for example China has been accused of currency manipulation devaluing its own currency by the USA, or the try to for example Japan has been trying to devalue its currency.
That's not everyone. How's it going for Russia or Venezuela?
Figures and source provide in post 29 of this thread in reply to tahiti.
The figures are in the spread sheets attached to the graphs
Figure 4: Value of UK trade in goods, October 2014 to October 2016
Figure 11: Value of UK trade in services, October 2014 to October 2016
in the ONS release.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...ktrade/oct2016

The trade balance is improving down £4.1 billion in October.


£60 billion of UK government gilts. Gilts the Bank of England then forgoes the interest payments on.
Up to £10 billion of corporate bonds.
And it is not our money its QE money written into existence out of thin air.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi.../2016/008.aspx
It's not free money. Otherwise we'd finance the NHS that way too.
GDP is up and unemployment is down. inflation is below target and average wages are increasing faster than inflation.

UK GDP Quarter growth.
2015 Q1 0.3
2015 Q2 0.5
2015 Q3 0.3
2015 Q4 0.7
2016 Q1 0.3
2016 Q2 0.6
2016 Q3 0.6
That's static Q3=Q2 and that's with 60bn of QE our GDP has risen by less than 3bn.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:32
andykn
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One is intrinsically linked with the other, how could you not be in the Single Market, accepting market regs and not be in the EU.
Ask Norway or, as specifically mentioned by the official Leave campaign, Iceland.

In the single market but not in the EU.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:35
Bob_Whinger
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Ask Norway or, as specifically mentioned by the official Leave campaign, Iceland.

In the single market but not in the EU.
Or even Mexico has a free trade deal with the EU.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:39
tahiti
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Or even Mexico has a free trade deal with the EU.
there is a big difference between access to the Single Market and a mere free trade deal with the EU
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:40
Bob_Whinger
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there is a big difference between access to the Single Market and a mere free trade deal with the EU
What is the `big difference` that you claim ?
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:43
andykn
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Maybe he should be telling the German government rather than the UK. No-one in the UK wants tariffs imposed, it would be bad for the whole of Europe. The UK also does not want to continue paying billions of pounds to a corrupt, anti-democratic, failing, EU bureaucracy.
In other words you want to have your cake and eat it. All the benefits and none of the commitments.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:47
Bob_Whinger
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In other words you want to have your cake and eat it. All the benefits and none of the commitments.
There are no benefits the UK would not have spending the billions themselves.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:47
sangreal
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Well, that would depend on the type of trade deal wouldn't it ?
It's theoretically possible (but highely unlikely) to have all aspects of the single market apart from FOM.

Which no other country in the world has got... apart from Lichtenstein, which is in the EFTA & single market, but has an emergency brake on Free Movement of Workers/Labour (not visa-free movement of people, which is a totally different thing).

Funnily enough, we were offered the same thing (emergency brake) before we voted to leave....

So yes, "highly unlikely", alas.


One is intrinsically linked with the other, how could you not be in the Single Market, accepting market regs and not be in the EU.

EFTA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe...de_Association
http://www.efta.int/about-efta/the-efta-states

We *could* just fall back to EFTA (if Norway, Switzerland, Iceland & Lichtenstein agree)

Don't forget we were founding members of and in the EFTA between 1960-1972 and already had free trade with the then EEC 6 and EFTA 7 before we joined the EEC/EU.

Based on existing models, and not fantasy "have our cake and eat it" ones, a modified UK-style deal based on the bilateral Swiss<=>EU model is the best we could possibly hope for....

We could keep free movement of goods, services, capital & financial passport,
make our own separate FTA deals with any other country or trade-bloc in the world,
and *maybe* negotiate an emergency brake on free movement of labour, stating the reason being that our economy & infrastructure are under considerable strain (£1.8TN national debt, £65BN budget deficit which is forecast to start rising again, health service in crisis, education system in crisis, public services under immense pressure, housing crisis, etc - ie. a complete UK government failure - which they will try to blame on everything/everyone else but themselves).

We also wouldn't be bound by the CAP or CFP (agriculture or fishing policies) any more.

The downside being that we would still need to pay a (lesser) fee, and would still need to adhere to certain trade regulations (which we would anyway, if we struck any bilateral FTA deal with the EU), and we'd no longer have any seat/say on the council, or any MEPs in the parliament...

It's what Farage, Hannan and other leading Leave campaigners used to advocate....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
https://youtu.be/eYqzcqDtL3k?t=3044

They were all praising the Switzerland & Norway models prior to the referendum result....but then changed their tune when they seemed to suddenly realise that it meant keeping free movement of workers... because we'd probably blown our chance to get an emergency brake....?

A UK-style FTA deal based on the Canada model could also take many years to complete.
The Canada one took 7 years and still hasn't been fully ratified.
FTAs are not the same as being a member of the EEA Single Market.
Only members can get free movement of all goods, services, capital & banking passport.
FTAs remove tariffs/taxes for some/most goods, might cover some services but definitely not all, and do NOT cover financial services, capital or banking passport.

Yes, a bilateral FTA deal would be good for the car industry, as it would remove the automatically WTO-MFN imposed 10% tariffs and quotas & taxes (because that's how trade-blocs work) on cars exported from the UK into the EU.

Note that, as a single country, we would be under no obligation to impose tariffs under WTO rules.
But if we do, then we would also need to impose the same tariff on everyone else (because that's how WTO MFN rules work), meaning we'd need to strike FTAs with all other countries to remove said tariffs... which could also take many many years....

Oh well, in 3 months time we might have a slightly clearer picture.... but until then........
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:50
Bob_Whinger
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There is no reason to pay the EU one Euro for access to their market. They should pay then UK as they sell us far more than we sell them. No other country in the world pays money in order to sell into another countries free market.
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Old 31-12-2016, 13:52
tahiti
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What is the `big difference` that you claim ?
free trade agreement are normally limited in scope, eg to some economic sectors , and then are only concerned with zeroing tariffs, leaving non-tariff barriers intact.

NTBs are the main obstacle to trade nowadays, and explain some of the differences between the EEC and EU.
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