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The Catalan Independence Thread |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 470
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The Catalan Independence Thread
Somewhat of a slow-burner in media terms, given the preceding Dutch, French and German polls, but events in Catalonia in 2017 could well prove pivotal towards future European developments. To recap: the region gained autonomy following the death of Franco, reflecting the results of the first democratic Spanish elections in the area. So far, so uneventful, until the financial crisis sparked a movement from regionalism towards outright separatism. After winning the last regional election, the local government plans a binding independence referendum, but Madrid is opposed on constitutional grounds. Polls, however, suggest that 84% of Catalans favour the holding of a vote (49% unilaterally, 35% after negotiations with Madrid a la Scotland), even if opinion on the actual question is divided almost 50/50. Remaining questions include whether EU membership would continue, or they would be pushed back in the accession queue, which may well be crucial to the outcome in September.
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#2 |
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Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 979
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Not sure where your 84% is from but , the Catalan self-determination referendum that went ahead on 9 November 2014 had a result of 81% vote in favour, but the turnout was only 42%. Therefore on that basis it could be seen as a majority were opposed to both independence and the referendum. Incidentally the vote had been declared unconstitutional by the Spanish Constitutional Court but the Catalans ignored this and held the vote anyway.
This is the problem with like embryo Independence movements elsewhere they seem to think the law is an optional extra and can be ignored when they don't like its decrees. I foresee no easy answer to this. Catalonia is the richest part of Spain, the rest of Spain could not survive without Catalonia. The EU if it is true to its previous word would throw an independent Catalonia out of the EU and make them join a queue to rejoin. They could not afford to go easy on Catalonia as it would just give succour to other independence movements around the EU which is the last thing the bureaucrats in Brussels wants. If the independence die-hards ignore all this hold their referendum and then declare UDI in all reality you could have another Spanish civil war on your hands. The most likely outcome i think is the Catalan Government will say they are holding a binding referendum, the Spanish Constitutional Court will again say it is illegal. The referendum is held, either on a binding or consultational basis, the turnout is less than 50% due to a pressure from the central Government for people not to vote and so is declared lost in any case. There is a round up of political leaders who advocated and aided the referendum. |
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#3 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Isle of Wight
Posts: 7,810
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This is why Scotland won't get EU membership should they leave the UK (however much they bleat that they will), as the EU won't want to set a precidence and neither will Spain who will veto any such membership.
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#4 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,621
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Quote:
Not sure where your 84% is from but , the Catalan self-determination referendum that went ahead on 9 November 2014 had a result of 81% vote in favour, but the turnout was only 42%. Therefore on that basis it could be seen as a majority were opposed to both independence and the referendum. Incidentally the vote had been declared unconstitutional by the Spanish Constitutional Court but the Catalans ignored this and held the vote anyway.
This is the problem with like embryo Independence movements elsewhere they seem to think the law is an optional extra and can be ignored when they don't like its decrees. I foresee no easy answer to this. Catalonia is the richest part of Spain, the rest of Spain could not survive without Catalonia. The EU if it is true to its previous word would throw an independent Catalonia out of the EU and make them join a queue to rejoin. They could not afford to go easy on Catalonia as it would just give succour to other independence movements around the EU which is the last thing the bureaucrats in Brussels wants. If the independence die-hards ignore all this hold their referendum and then declare UDI in all reality you could have another Spanish civil war on your hands. The most likely outcome i think is the Catalan Government will say they are holding a binding referendum, the Spanish Constitutional Court will again say it is illegal. The referendum is held, either on a binding or consultational basis, the turnout is less than 50% due to a pressure from the central Government for people not to vote and so is declared lost in any case. There is a round up of political leaders who advocated and aided the referendum. When did we start counting the votes of those who don't vote? |
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#5 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 979
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Quote:
When did we start counting the votes of those who don't vote?
The Scottish referendum of 1979 was a post-legislative referendum to decide whether there was sufficient support for a Scottish Assembly proposed in the Scotland Act 1978 among the Scottish electorate. This was an act to create a devolved deliberative assembly for Scotland. An amendment to the Act stipulated that it would be repealed if fewer than 40% of the total electorate voted Yes in the referendum. The result was that 51.6% supported the proposal, but with a turnout of 64%, this represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate. The Act was subsequently repealed. |
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#6 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,106
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I can't see it happening, if for no other reason than that Barcelona would have to leave La Liga.
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#7 |
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Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,427
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Quote:
When did we start counting the votes of those who don't vote?
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#8 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,386
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Good luck to the Catalans - seems they have the balls that many of my fellow countrymen lack in wanting to take control of their own affairs.
The carping from the sidelines has a familiar stench to it already. |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mid Wales / Canolbarth Cymru
Posts: 37,462
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Quote:
Well for one
The Scottish referendum of 1979 was a post-legislative referendum to decide whether there was sufficient support for a Scottish Assembly proposed in the Scotland Act 1978 among the Scottish electorate. This was an act to create a devolved deliberative assembly for Scotland. An amendment to the Act stipulated that it would be repealed if fewer than 40% of the total electorate voted Yes in the referendum. The result was that 51.6% supported the proposal, but with a turnout of 64%, this represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate. The Act was subsequently repealed. It hasnt been used since though - only simple majorities have been required. Had a threshold been imposed on the brexit ref, remain would have won. |
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#10 |
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Scotland
Posts: 13,457
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Quote:
Good luck to the Catalans - seems they have the balls that many of my fellow countrymen lack in wanting to take control of their own affairs.
The carping from the sidelines has a familiar stench to it already. The Catalan situation seems slightly different on the surface but underneath they will face the same problems and add some too, more particularly the reluctance of the Spanish government to let them have an official referendum in the first place. |
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#11 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 22,529
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Quote:
Good luck to the Catalans - seems they have the balls that many of my fellow countrymen lack in wanting to take control of their own affairs.
The carping from the sidelines has a familiar stench to it already. Nothing to do with "balls". People just did not want to risk their future on the promises of Salmond who only wanted his name in the history books. |
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