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Len McCluskey - Awful polling could derail Corbyn


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Old 02-01-2017, 16:59
thenetworkbabe
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Why are you posting these figures without any sort of explanation of how they were achieved?

Without an actual explanation they are totally irrelevant.
Sounds like a Gove argument - no one knows anything , so lets make it all up as we go along. The Corbyn equivalent is the invisible proliteriat - who remain invisible, or voting for UKIP.

Its a poll. All polls have margins of error. The margins may be a bit bigger when voters lie - because they know their own vote is for something dubious. The US election polls were right overall - and just out significantly in 4 key states. The brexit vote was within the margin of error.

Corbyn is a disaster -no margin of error can save him - whether the polls are under-estimating his support by the same 2 or 3 percent or not.
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:01
TelevisionUser
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2019 is going to be far too late for a new leader to take the part to a win. Corbyn needs to go now. He has missed the gigantic open goal that is the Tories at present. It is embarrassing that Labour are no where to be seen.
That reminds me that Keir Starmer has done rather well at undermining the Tories when it comes to Brexit matters and perhaps he's a potential leadership candidate?
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:02
OLD HIPPY GUY
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Len McCluskey - Awful polling could derail Corbyn

This comment is all the more surprising since it came direct from McCluskey himself. Perhaps it's a coded warning to Corbyn to get his act together and improve his, and the Labour party's, performance?

The loss of the Copeland seat and poor May local election results could pile up more pressure on Corbyn.
Have you bothered to read what he ACTUALLY said?

ETA post #41
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:04
Inspiration
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Anyone would think Len had an important election coming up.
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:08
TelevisionUser
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Have you bothered to read what he ACTUALLY said?

ETA post #41
As set out in that BBC article then yes, I did. It does not come across as an unequivocal endorsement of both Corbyn and Mr McDonnell but as a set of statements that are more nuanced and conditional, e.g. McCluskey has publicly indicated that there might be circumstances whereby Corbyn is no longer the leader, for example due to resignation.
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:16
Annsyre
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Why are you posting these figures without any sort of explanation of how they were achieved?

Without an actual explanation they are totally irrelevant.
You have made you arguments against polls in the Opinion Polls thread and you wont even concede the clear trend that Corbyn has been lagging behind for over a year. Do you honestly believe that Corbyn is ahead of May in public opinion?
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:17
OLD HIPPY GUY
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As set out in that BBC article then yes, I did. It does not come across as an unequivocal endorsement of both Corbyn and Mr McDonnell but as a set of statements that are more nuanced and conditional, e.g. McCluskey has publicly indicated that there might be circumstances whereby Corbyn is no longer the leader, for example due to resignation.
However, at no point did he say,

Awful polling could derail Corbyn
the implication being made by the media is that McCluskey has attacked or been critical of Corbyn, when he clearly has done no such things. (in fact he has tweeted his continuing support for the Labour leader and has criticised misleading headlines, but of course THAT won't get reported)

he has simply said that should the situation not improve as the next election approaches then both Corbyn and McDonnell would consider their options, something which could also quite possibly said for May, as her rating is declining and that's before the brexit negotiations begin.
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Old 02-01-2017, 17:32
Tassium
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No doubt the polls are not amazingly accurate these days, but they are in the region of being correct.

If labour were averaging 30 and Tories 36 it's possible to argue that's really close and as the reality of Theresa Maybe hit's home then Labour under Corbyn might have a chance.


He just hasn't got the right personality. You need to be more forward to win a UK election.

(John Major got lucky)
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Old 02-01-2017, 18:22
OLD HIPPY GUY
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I notice that the impartial BBC have now declared McCluskey's comments as a "warning" to Corbyn, even though they are no such thing, and even though since the BBC began reporting this, McCluskey has repeatedly stated his support for Corbyn, which of course the MSN have ignored.
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Old 02-01-2017, 18:46
MattXfactor
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Why are you posting these figures without any sort of explanation of how they were achieved?

Without an actual explanation they are totally irrelevant.
He listed the source "YouGov" I'm sure people are capable of checking the results themselves? Polls obviously won't be a fully accurate conclusion of current voting intention (especially in recent times) but its pretty wishful thinking to think that a 15% tory lead in the polls will be badly enough wrong to give Labour any chance whatsoever of winning a majority government under a Corbyn leadership.
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Old 02-01-2017, 18:48
MattXfactor
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No doubt the polls are not amazingly accurate these days, but they are in the region of being correct.

If labour were averaging 30 and Tories 36 it's possible to argue that's really close and as the reality of Theresa Maybe hit's home then Labour under Corbyn might have a chance.


He just hasn't got the right personality. You need to be more forward to win a UK election.

(John Major got lucky)
Yep, I'd say in recent times it would be fair to possibly argue that polls could be 3% wrong either way per party. E.g if the tories are polling 36 currently I'd say its fair to assume they'd win 33-39% of the vote if held today.

However, with a 15 point lead, even taking 3 off the tories and adding 3 to labour only cuts it down to a 6% lead (which is the same as the last election margin). Also, its worth considering polls that underestimate support almost always do so in the fact that they under estimate the centre right parties (e.g 2015 election result/ brexit/ trump).
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Old 02-01-2017, 19:00
TelevisionUser
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However, at no point did he say,

the implication being made by the media is that McCluskey has attacked or been critical of Corbyn, when he clearly has done no such things. (in fact he has tweeted his continuing support for the Labour leader and has criticised misleading headlines, but of course THAT won't get reported)

he has simply said that should the situation not improve as the next election approaches then both Corbyn and McDonnell would consider their options, something which could also quite possibly said for May, as her rating is declining and that's before the brexit negotiations begin.
However, one thing his comments were not was an unconditional, glowing endorsement of Corbyn and McCluskey was indicating that there might be a time when Corbyn was no longer leader.
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Old 02-01-2017, 19:57
kidspud
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I notice that the impartial BBC have now declared McCluskey's comments as a "warning" to Corbyn, even though they are no such thing, and even though since the BBC began reporting this, McCluskey has repeatedly stated his support for Corbyn, which of course the MSN have ignored.
I've no doubt that McCluskey's words are a warning to Corbyn.

We know he is Corbyn's biggest union supporter which is why him mentioning the future possibility of Corbyn stepping down if the polls are not good is significant.
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Old 02-01-2017, 20:22
batdude_uk1
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You have made you arguments against polls in the Opinion Polls thread and you wont even concede the clear trend that Corbyn has been lagging behind for over a year. Do you honestly believe that Corbyn is ahead of May in public opinion?
What I am saying is why post poll figures without a clear explanation of how duchy figures were achieved (I.e how many people were asked, what age groups were asked, in which geographical area etc), as all of those would help to at least give some meaning to the figures.

Without such an explanation, we are just left with meaninglessness numbers.

As for my personal beliefs over Corbyn, that is not the issue at hand here.
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Old 02-01-2017, 20:27
Annsyre
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What I am saying is why post poll figures without a clear explanation of how duchy figures were achieved (I.e how many people were asked, what age groups were asked, in which geographical area etc), as all of those would help to at least give some meaning to the figures.

Without such an explanation, we are just left with meaninglessness numbers.

As for my personal beliefs over Corbyn, that is not the issue at hand here.
Why don't you check the criteria used by the various polling companies then you will know?

Corbyn is the issue - his name is in the title of the thread as is the word polling.
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Old 02-01-2017, 20:27
batdude_uk1
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He listed the source "YouGov" I'm sure people are capable of checking the results themselves? Polls obviously won't be a fully accurate conclusion of current voting intention (especially in recent times) but its pretty wishful thinking to think that a 15% tory lead in the polls will be badly enough wrong to give Labour any chance whatsoever of winning a majority government under a Corbyn leadership.
And how did they arrive at such figures, it would be nice if there was a bit of explanation to go along with the numbers.

If people wish to believe polls, then they are entitled to do so, after seeing so many polls getting lots wrong, I will not be taking what they say as gospel without them being a full in depth poll, rather than just a few hundred, or thousand people, and then extrapolating an answer from there.

If a poll wants to be taken seriously, then it should ask more than just a few thousand people, especially on a political topic, plus they should ask people from all over the country.

That is of course just my feelings, others may very well disagree, and be happy with the current methods and polls.
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Old 02-01-2017, 20:57
CAMERA OBSCURA
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I noticed the chap being interviewed by the 'impartial' BBC could not get the grin off his face quickly enough and the camera caught him mid grin, it's very telling how the BBC lead with this non story while ignoring the growing civil war within the Tory party.
Should this chap not have been interviewed?

The growing civil war with the Tory party has been reported. It is however at this moment just a growing civil war, the odd grumble here and there, and nowhere near the out and out comrade on comrade blood bath the Red civil war has been, still is and will continue to be. Many a commentator on the BBC, be them political prestenter or guest, have said a Tory civil war is definitely brewing and will more than likely 'go over the top' when brexit negotiations begin.

Lets see how popular May is once the brexit negotiations actually start.
If a large chunk of her cabinet quit within a matter of days, causing endless ongoing ripples throughout the party, I expect it, and the ongoing consequences, to be reported.
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Old 02-01-2017, 21:26
platelet
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Tom Watson has weighed in with a message of encouragement

It is a golden rule for Labour politicians never to interfere in union elections but [Unite members] have a big choice to make.

British workers have had a terrible decade when it comes to pay and conditions and they will want to know the person leading the biggest union is totally focused on their interests. I say to Unite members: Make sure you use your vote - it's a vital election and very often people can win elections like these on a very low turnout.

The general secretary has a great influence on politics - Len McCluskey is close personal friend of Jeremy Corbyn - members can help change the course of history if they decide to vote.
Just not to sure which side he's trying to encourage
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Old 02-01-2017, 21:50
johhn
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It seems to me that Corbynites quite believe polls themselves as Corbyn and Diane Abbott have promised to turn around the opinion polls by the end of this year, which means exact 12 months left for the delivery deadline. Tick-tock, tick-tock...
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Old 02-01-2017, 22:30
Annsyre
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Should this chap not have been interviewed?

The growing civil war with the Tory party has been reported. It is however at this moment just a growing civil war, the odd grumble here and there, and nowhere near the out and out comrade on comrade blood bath the Red civil war has been, still is and will continue to be. Many a commentator on the BBC, be them political prestenter or guest, have said a Tory civil war is definitely brewing and will more than likely 'go over the top' when brexit negotiations begin.



If a large chunk of her cabinet quit within a matter of days, causing endless ongoing ripples throughout the party, I expect it, and the ongoing consequences, to be reported.

Another thing that will ripple through is the Conservative lead over Labour and the Conservatives as a whole will stick together.
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Old 02-01-2017, 23:01
OLD HIPPY GUY
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However, one thing his comments were not was an unconditional, glowing endorsement of Corbyn and McCluskey was indicating that there might be a time when Corbyn was no longer leader.
and there was me thinking that Corbyn would lead eternally.
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Old 02-01-2017, 23:21
OLD HIPPY GUY
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Should this chap not have been interviewed?
which chap? the chap who the media and in particular the BBC are insisting has "warned Corbyn" ya know Len McCluskey the man who has been posting and tweeting his 100% support for the Labour leadership, and repeatedly said that the media are as ever twisting what he said, ever since the media ran with this pathetic storm in a tea cup and blew it out of all proportion?
Or the guy they did interview? and his smirks were of course no indication of bias,

The growing civil war with the Tory party has been reported. It is however at this moment just a growing civil war, the odd grumble here and there, and nowhere near the out and out comrade on comrade blood bath the Red civil war has been, still is and will continue to be. Many a commentator on the BBC, be them political prestenter or guest, have said a Tory civil war is definitely brewing and will more than likely 'go over the top' when brexit negotiations begin.
the odd grumble?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7426811.html

Sixty Tory MPs demand Theresa May commits Britain to a Hard Brexit
If a large chunk of her cabinet quit within a matter of days, causing endless ongoing ripples throughout the party, I expect it, and the ongoing consequences, to be reported.
So do you think that what McCluskey said warrants the attention it has been given today, when compared to the scant regard given to the following, I ask to in all honesty do you really think that if this was Labour MPs and Corbyn it would have got such little coverage?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...exit-plan.html

Theresa May faces embarrassment as up to FORTY Tory MPs prepare to revolt and back a Labour motion that demands she publish her Brexit plan
look at the uproar over a comment by a union leader who isnt even an MP?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...-Labour-motion
PM facing Brexit revolt from 40 Tory MPs in Commons’ showdown this week
don't recall the BBC making such a big deal about this,
or this,
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...y-end-negative
Top Tory MPs urge Theresa May to end negative Cabinet briefings against Philip Hammond
this either...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...n-brexit-terms

Tory MPs accuse May of 'tyranny' as vote on Brexit terms ruled out
we would have had several multi page threads on each one of those had they been about Corbyn,

perhaps someone should have faked some pictures of May dancing around the cenotaph?
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Old 02-01-2017, 23:50
barrcode88
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Sadly a case of misleading reporting from the MSM, thats not what McCluskey actually said.
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Old 03-01-2017, 00:20
curmy
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I
noticed the chap being interviewed by the 'impartial' BBC could not get the grin off his face quickly enough and the camera caught him mid grin, it's very telling how the BBC lead with this non story while ignoring the growing civil war within the Tory party.
I can think of numerous occasions when the BBC has shown partiality to Labour, on the whole, I think they try very hard to say neutral .

The only reason Corbyn stories feature so largely in the media, is because he's so often proposing ridiculous far left ideas & demoting anyone in his party who's more moderate !
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Old 03-01-2017, 00:36
CAMERA OBSCURA
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OLD HIPPY GUY
which chap? the chap who the media and in particular the BBC are insisting has "warned Corbyn" ya know Len McCluskey the man who has been posting and tweeting his 100% support for the Labour leadership, and repeatedly said that the media are as ever twisting what he said, ever since the media ran with this pathetic storm in a tea cup and blew it out of all proportion?
Or the guy they did interview? and his smirks were of course no indication of bias,
This chap.
I noticed the chap being interviewed by the 'impartial' BBC could not get the grin off his face quickly enough and the camera caught him mid grin, it's very telling how the BBC lead with this non story while ignoring the growing civil war within the Tory party.
The chap being interviewed with the biased grin. Who was he by the way?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38037119


So do you think that what McCluskey said warrants the attention it has been given today, when compared to the scant regard given to the following, I ask to in all honesty do you really think that if this was Labour MPs and Corbyn it would have got such little coverage?
Warrants the attention? How much attention has it received by the BBC exactly? And nothing similar has ever been reported when it has been other parties?


There was no revolt by 40 Tory MP's though was there? It was rumour and hearsay. Maybe if it had more substance to it it would have been reported as news. Maybe Corbyn hater Laura Kungsberg could find nothing to substantiate the rumours. I do recall a Tory MP saying it was more like 10 MP's rather than 40. So what do you think the BBC should have reported? 10 MPs hardly a vote of no confindence wouldnt you say. It's hardly Mr. Corbyn having a vote of no confidence against him from his own MPs. But that's just biased as well I suppose.

The McCluskey article is reporting something that did happen. Just as many articles reporting hot tory on tory, UKIP on UKIP and Lib Dem on Lib Dem action have been reported.

Today it's Labour because at the moment it is they that are in a mess. The Tories are nowhere near that level of destruction.
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