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Manufacturing grows at its fastest rate in 2 1/2 years! |
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#26 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,099
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I can pretty much guarantee with absolute certainty that you are wrong - in that these are not projections but survey results from Purchasing Managers - the PMI is Calculated as follows;
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0.5) + (P3 * 0) P1 = Percentage number of answers that reported an improvement. P2 = Percentage number of answers that reported no change. P3 = Percentage number of answers that reported a deterioration. Thus, if 100% of the panel reported an improvement, the index would be 100.0. If 100% reported a deterioration, the index would be zero. If 100% of the panel saw no change, the index would be 50.0 (P2 * 0.5). Therefore, an index reading of 50.0 means that the variable is unchanged, a number over 50.0 indicates an improvement, while anything below 50.0 suggests a decline. An index of 50.0 would arise if either all respondents reported no change or the number of respondents reporting an improvement was matched by the number of respondents reporting a deterioration. They are not surveys of opinions, intentions or expectations and the data therefore represent the closest one can get to “hard data” without asking for actual figures from companies see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purcha...ers'_Index |
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#27 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,726
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It's an economic indicator that uses mathematical modelling to come up with a figure. In my book, that is a projection. And I don't care how close it is to "hard data" it is often proven to be wrong.
As for Accuracy - I am sure you can provide a link showing how it has been 'proven' to be wrong - as an alternative here is a comment from the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply https://www.cips.org/en-gb/cips-for-...assurance/pmi/ Quote:
a highly accurate set of facts about current industry conditions in manufacturing, construction and services
Note the use of the word 'current' and not 'future'Even Pantheon which reported that the post brexit figure may not be as bad as the PMI stated - acknowledged that the PMI was a useful barometer of growth. There point with the PMI is that it takes no account of the magnitude of changes The PMI figures published in the aftermath of the Brexit vote were still broadly in line with other economic surveys. See http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit...-uk-pmi-2016-7 That the PMI survey overstated the effect of Brexit is perfectly understandable. Given that a Brexit would tend to suggest that it would be harder for Britain to export purchasing managers will order less in anticipation of that drop - however the drop ion the value of sterling made British goods more attractive and therefore exports increased and hence the purchases made to support those exports increased. Or to put it bluntly the only indication of any 'inaccuracy' would indicate the PMI under-estimating growth. It is the ONS figures which have historically under estimated growth when growth is in a post referendum or low level. |
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#28 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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It is a survey - not a projection a projection implies that the figures are based on an estimate of what purchases will be made - the PMI survey uses figures based on purchases that have actually been made.
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#29 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Kent
Posts: 3,026
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No and no.
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#30 |
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 47,965
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You can use whatever language you like bottom line is I don't believe the numbers. And I don't give a stuff about silly wikipedia links you dig up. Wikipedia is a joke anyway. And anyone can google for random links to pages that support your thinking.
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#31 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
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LOL. I'm fairly sure you'd be quoting them if the figure supported your thinking.
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#32 |
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
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I can almost guarantee with absolute certainty these projections, and they are just that - wildly speculative projections, will be revised down.
Our economy is in terrible shape and is on the verge of total collapse because of brexit. |
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#33 |
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Like the Brexiters who were decrying it when it showed a sharp drop after the referendum.
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#34 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,726
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You can use whatever language you like bottom line is I don't believe the numbers.
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And I don't give a stuff about silly wikipedia links you dig up. Wikipedia is a joke anyway. And anyone can google for random links to pages that support your thinking.
if you will not accept Wikipedia - please indicate which sources you will accept. I presume Markit themselves would not be one as they are the ones that produce the figures in the first place. Same for CIPS - I provided a link to the latter which you do seem to have ignored.There is www.investopedia.com but are you going to say the same as Wikipedia in dismissing that link as well. I note you have not provided anything to back up your assertion that the PMI has been proven inaccurate. |
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#35 |
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Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 3,219
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Yes, that is right. Looks like good news for those areas in the UK that are heavy manufacturing are doing exceptionally well.
Don't forget the economists are predicting doom and gloom again. I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it: UK manufacturing growth 'strengthens' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38494939
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#36 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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When the PMI figures underestimated how well the UK economy was doing, as was revealed by the GDP figures when they came out. Like then hopefully these PMI figures are a underestimate.
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#37 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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This can't be right, brexit means brexit and we are all going to die this article must be BS
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#38 |
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,588
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No, you just don't understand what you're being told. That's why referenda are a bad idea.
Perhaps if you could provide an actual link to one of the things you've clearly misunderstood we can help. |
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#39 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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I'm in a good mood so am going to assume this is a satirical dig at certain arrogant remainers. As such, well done, you nailed it.
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#40 |
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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According to paulschapman these figures are more accurate than the ONS ones.
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#41 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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According to paulschapman these figures are more accurate than the ONS ones.
Also the ONS gets it's figures over a 3 month period - meaning the first figures often need revising. The PMI figures do not - so can be judged on the announcement. http://www.wbs.ac.uk/news/ons-new-fi...e-uk-recovery/ See this link which goes into revisions made to the ONS Figures. |
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#42 |
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: London
Posts: 4,900
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You can use whatever language you like bottom line is I don't believe the numbers. And I don't give a stuff about silly wikipedia links you dig up. Wikipedia is a joke anyway. And anyone can google for random links to pages that support your thinking.
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#43 |
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,588
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Yeah right, just strawman then run away.
Thing is, I'm more than happy to accept that there are some clueless Brexiteers out there, I'm not going to ask you to back up your claim about Brexiteers earlier dismissed PMI figures 1. Most people are dumb 2. Even the people who aren't dumb are mostly economically illiterate. 2. Forum search is broken. Do you really find it so hard to accept that quite a few remainers also made some really dumb comments about the fall of the pound? |
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#44 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
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So you were being serious?
Thing is, I'm more than happy to accept that there are some clueless Brexiteers out there, I'm not going to ask you to back up your claim about Brexiteers earlier dismissed PMI figures 1. Most people are dumb 2. Even the people who aren't dumb are mostly economically illiterate. 2. Forum search is broken. Do you really find it so hard to accept that quite a few remainers also made some really dumb comments about the fall of the pound? As for the other: Quote:
I know that but the warnings have been coming for some time, even before the Brexit result. Little to do with Brexit and more to do with global economies.
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Absolutely. If anything it's the uncertainty caused by us not having invoked article 50 despite the referendum, that's a contributing factor. Lets get this business done
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The IMF forecast now is that the UK will not even go into recession 2016, 2017 and will be the second fastest growing economy in the G7, faster than Germany and France. If your predictions of doom fail to materialize will you at least try to use the word if when making predictions in future.
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The last time we had a negative PMI index GDP growth in the following quarter shot up. if PMI were such an accurate predictor of the state of the economy in the future would you not have expected a fall in GDP growth?
PMI |
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#45 |
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Join Date: Aug 2008
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Dumb comments maybe, "disaster for the economy" not really.
As for the other: Anyway - "The pound plunging by 17% is a national disaster" https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ay-immigration As for the rest, I'm impressed that you found it but would only say Majlis's post really questions the validity of PMI. |
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#46 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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You don't think a remainer has ever called it a disaster for the economy? Seriously, have you ever read aurichie's post's?
Anyway - "The pound plunging by 17% is a national disaster" https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ay-immigration As for the rest, I'm impressed that you found it but would only say Majlis's post really questions the validity of PMI. Edit: Google pmi site:forums.digitalspy.co.uk |
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#47 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,726
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You don't think a remainer has ever called it a disaster for the economy? Seriously, have you ever read aurichie's post's?
Anyway - "The pound plunging by 17% is a national disaster" https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ay-immigration As for the rest, I'm impressed that you found it but would only say Majlis's post really questions the validity of PMI. The same thing could happen now - if the pound loses too much value then it will become inflationary - also it would see the cost of inputs into manufacturing going up - which would indicate those prices eventually having to increase (or we have to improve productivity). The thing with Brexit is that if (and it is a big if) British goods have tariffs imposed it is going to make British goods more expensive - this will be offset by the reduction in sterling. If the reduction in sterling matches the effect of the extra tariffs then this will not have much if any effect. Finally we are in the position we are now - we have not actually left the EU but sterling has dropped in value - this means that while British goods have suddenly got cheaper - our own goods are now cheaper for everyone else. This situation will last until either sterling recovers or Brexit actually happens. Just to make a complex situation even more complex any Brexit drop in the value of sterling may already be accounted for in the drop which has happened. So again no adverse effects maybe minimal. Put it another way - if anyone says they have any idea what is going to happen when and if Brexit actually happens - they are nuts. |
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#48 |
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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It depends really - look at the 91/92 recession - the pound lost value after dropping out of the ERM. This could have led to inflation returning but it did not and the economy went into one of the longest post war periods of growth - ending only in 2008 with the Great Recession.
The same thing could happen now - if the pound loses too much value then it will become inflationary - also it would see the cost of inputs into manufacturing going up - which would indicate those prices eventually having to increase (or we have to improve productivity). The thing with Brexit is that if (and it is a big if) British goods have tariffs imposed it is going to make British goods more expensive - this will be offset by the reduction in sterling. If the reduction in sterling matches the effect of the extra tariffs then this will not have much if any effect. Finally we are in the position we are now - we have not actually left the EU but sterling has dropped in value - this means that while British goods have suddenly got cheaper - our own goods are now cheaper for everyone else. This situation will last until either sterling recovers or Brexit actually happens. Just to make a complex situation even more complex any Brexit drop in the value of sterling may already be accounted for in the drop which has happened. So again no adverse effects maybe minimal. Put it another way - if anyone says they have any idea what is going to happen when and if Brexit actually happens - they are nuts. |
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#49 |
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Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
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No and no.
![]() http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...1&postcount=63 Feel free to apologise... |
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#50 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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We still might get inflation if the pound stays low, tariffs won't help much with that.
My concern was always about our ability to sell to foreign markets once tariffs were imposed - hence why I voted remain, with inflation increasing and leading to drops in home markets - but to be honest now I'm not so sure that will happen. |
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