DS Forums

 
 

Why Brexit is succeeding !


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Yesterday, 18:11
Mr Oleo Strut
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,304
What nobody can understand except our Prime Minister and a few others that Brexit means Brexit, the sooner we realise this the better. Brexit does not mean Remain, there is no Remain, it does not exist any more, it is obsolete now, so we cannot Remain even if we wanted to Remain so Brexit it is, therefore Brexit means Brexit, it does not mean Remain. If Brexit meant Remain the country would not have voted Brexit and the Teresa would have said Remain is Remain so we will Remain and not Brexit. Some might say we cannot Brexit as there is no such word but there is an actual word Remain so we should Remain. Brexit is however a brand new word that we shall have to get used to, as we will see it used more and more. Remain is history like Neanderthal man and Brexit is the future we must embrace it with love and affection and bring joy with it into our hearts.
You're quite wrong. Brexit is a lie based on more lies and it will not survive. Long live Remain! Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité, Remainité!
Mr Oleo Strut is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old Yesterday, 18:29
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
But again, for the millionth time, the predictions were based on Cameron's promise to trigger Article 50 on the very next day.

The markets are still half-working on the premise that A50 might never be triggered.

The predictions were also based on different potential scenarios and outcomes, depending on what type of future trade deal we might have with the EEA Single Market (EFTA, FTA, EUCU or WTO) - but again, none of it's happened yet.

The value of GBP plummeted, as predicted, which was supposed to be just the start...

But as we're still in the EU and EEA, we're just going to have to wait and see what the eventual outcome is, somewhere inbetween the next few months and maybe years.....

Sure, Cameron & Osborne's predictions were mostly bs, because they were the all-time classic master pedlars of bs and lies, but we can't just ignore ALL other so-called expert opinion.... can we?
Exactly this (other than the specific day).

Economic predictions were based on only two possible outcomes.
1. We Remain.
2, Cameron triggers Article 50 on the 28th June 2016.

Neither of those outcomes have occurred.
And yet....we still see threads, and posts, and article headlines, that simply don't make sense.

Surely it is now entirely reasonable to say that Brexiteers have their fingers stuck firmly in their ears, other than Brexit voting Ostriches. "Fact".
I get the distinct impression you two did not read the reports containing the predictions.

The treasury report
This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.

The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy.

These findings sit within the range of what is now an overwhelming weight of published estimates for this short-term impact, which all find that UK GDP would be lower following a vote to leave.

the disruptive, short-term adjustment that would follow a vote to leave.

A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.

The effect of this would start to be felt immediately. Businesses would start to reduce investment spending and cut jobs in the short term, consistent with lower external demand and investment in the future. This transition effect would also lead to lower incomes, reducing household spending.

While the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership once and for all, many aspects of the UK’s international and domestic economic policy framework would be put in doubt, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty. Businesses and households would respond to this by putting off spending decisions until the nature of new arrangements with the EU became clearer. This uncertainty effect would also lower overall demand in the economy in the immediate aftermath of a vote to leave.

In the immediate aftermath of a vote to leave, financial markets would start to reassess the UK’s economic prospects. The UK would be viewed as a bigger risk to overseas investors, which would immediately lead to an increase in the premium for lending to UK businesses and households. The value of UK personal investments would also decline, and the fall in the value of the pound would put upward pressure on the prices paid by consumers.

In the shock scenario, a vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment. The analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower in the shock scenario compared with a vote to remain. In this scenario, the analysis shows that the fall in the value of the pound would be around 12%, and unemployment would increase by around 500,000, with all regions experiencing a rise in the number of people out of work. The exchange-rate-driven increase in the price of imports would lead to a material increase in prices, with the CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.

In the severe shock scenario, the analysis shows that after two years the level of GDP would be 6% lower, the number of people unemployed would rise by around 800,000, sterling would depreciate by 15% and CPI inflation would increase by 2.7 percentage points after a year.

There are significant downside risks which imply that the impact could be even larger
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 18:37
Caxton
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 24,058
You're quite wrong. Brexit is a lie based on more lies and it will not survive. Long live Remain! Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité, Remainité!
I did vote Remain, but Brexit was the preferred choice of the people overall. Brexit will survive because Brexit is Brexit. Remain is sad to say, dead, obsolete, redundant, there is no way back. It is the case of making the most of it now accepting it and embracing it, as Brexit is here to stay. Brexit is not Remain and never will be.

In a similar way Labour voted for Corbyn and now regret it as it is bringing them down, they must now put up with what they have, the British voted for Brexit and will no doubt long term regret it too as it could bring the country down as Britain becomes (if it is not already) Billy Nomates of Europe. Europe really hates us now and will put every obstacle in our way and bring us pain. They will give us nothing.
Caxton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 18:54
Mr Oleo Strut
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,304
I did vote Remain, but Brexit was the preferred choice of the people overall. Brexit will survive because Brexit is Brexit. Remain is sad to say, dead, obsolete, redundant, there is no way back. It is the case of making the most of it now accepting it and embracing it, as Brexit is here to stay. Brexit is not Remain and never will be.

In a similar way Labour voted for Corbyn and now regret it as it is bringing them down, they must now put up with what they have, the British voted for Brexit and will no doubt long term regret it too as it could bring the country down as Britain becomes (if it is not already) Billy Nomates of Europe. Europe really hates us now and will put every obstacle in our way and bring us pain. They will give us nothing.
With your views why ever did you vote Remain? I'm not aware that Europe hates us. Where did you get those ridiculous views from, the right-wing anti-EU press perhaps? The UK is an important part of Europe whether you like it or not, certainly not a sad little off-shore dustbin of nastiness and ignorance. I suggest you get a grip and start thinking for yourself.
Mr Oleo Strut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 18:56
MargMck
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,632
I did vote Remain, but Brexit was the preferred choice of the people overall. Brexit will survive because Brexit is Brexit. Remain is sad to say, dead, obsolete, redundant, there is no way back. It is the case of making the most of it now accepting it and embracing it, as Brexit is here to stay. Brexit is not Remain and never will be.

In a similar way Labour voted for Corbyn and now regret it as it is bringing them down, they must now put up with what they have, the British voted for Brexit and will no doubt long term regret it too as it could bring the country down as Britain becomes (if it is not already) Billy Nomates of Europe. Europe really hates us now and will put every obstacle in our way and bring us pain. They will give us nothing.
Europe doesn't hate us, we don't hate Eúrope or Europeans. We have just had enough of the EU.
Anyway, while the greedy EU pigeons ruffle their feathers over us, they have a monumental pile up of problems to deal with - and more on the way probably as the result of elections in other countries currently members.
It's the big business and money which will talk in the end - the EU is currently just a handy gateway for them and if it's effed up and we are doing well outside, well it is this which will decide futures across Europe, not GB finally choosing to get a divorce from the Juncker family.
MargMck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 18:56
kidspud
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 11,488
It's interesting that outers now see 'success' as 'it's not quite as bad as some thought it would be'......and we haven't even left yet!
kidspud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 19:06
Nodger
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: A bunker
Posts: 5,957
...erm.... OP. You didn't finish the thread title did you....?

Why Brexit is succeeding to bait!

All the usual British native species and seasonal visitors drawn into taking a risky bite in daylight by a catch all killer chum recipe.... "give me a 'B'... give me an 'r'..."
Nodger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 19:31
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
It's interesting that outers now see 'success' as 'it's not quite as bad as some thought it would be'......and we haven't even left yet!
Not quite as bad?

GDP growth is not just not negative, it has not even slowed down, and its better than last year.
2015 Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.5% Q3 +0.3% Q4 + 0.7%
2016 Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.6% Q3 +0.6%

Unemployment has not just not increased its fallen.
August to October 2016 unemployment 16,000 fewer than for May to July 2016 and 103,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

Exports are increasing
October 2016 exports increased by Ł2.0 billion
Between the 3 months to July 2016 and the 3 months to October 2016, goods exports increased Ł1.6 billion (2.0%)
Between the 3 months to July 2016 and the 3 months to October 2016, service exports increased Ł0.9 billion

Business that said they might leave if the referendum result was for Brexit have said they have no plans to leave. Businesses have announced billions of new investments in the UK. And the FTSE 100 is at a record high.
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:29
kidspud
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 11,488
Not quite as bad?

GDP growth is not just not negative, it has not even slowed down, and its better than last year.
2015 Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.5% Q3 +0.3% Q4 + 0.7%
2016 Q1 +0.3% Q2 +0.6% Q3 +0.6%

Unemployment has not just not increased its fallen.
August to October 2016 unemployment 16,000 fewer than for May to July 2016 and 103,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

Exports are increasing
October 2016 exports increased by Ł2.0 billion
Between the 3 months to July 2016 and the 3 months to October 2016, goods exports increased Ł1.6 billion (2.0%)
Between the 3 months to July 2016 and the 3 months to October 2016, service exports increased Ł0.9 billion

Business that said they might leave if the referendum result was for Brexit have said they have no plans to leave. Businesses have announced billions of new investments in the UK. And the FTSE 100 is at a record high.
None of that is because we have voted to leave so I've really no idea why you think it is relevant.
kidspud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:36
sangreal
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,159
I get the distinct impression you two did not read the reports containing the predictions.

The treasury report

Admittedly, I didn't read it all. I've got better/other things to do... like work, and real-life tm.
But my comment was mainly based on what the OP said, especially
"on the reasons why the vote didn't result in the catastrophic predictions."

And again, the report is wrong, based on a fallacy, because the predictions WERE based on a vote to leave, the instant triggering of A50 (as promised by Cameron), and the resulting end deal after the 2 years of negotiations, not just "on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow" as the report says.... which is another reason why I didn't read it all.

It's only been 6 months, with no triggering of A50, and no negotiations yet, so how can anyone confidently/accurately say any of the predictions have or haven't (or will/won't) come true?

The only prediction which has come true so far is that the value of the pound would plummet on the very next day. Most of the rest of the predictions required A50 to be triggered and for us to actually leave the EU and finalise some kind of exit and new trade deal.... i.e. it's still a case of "we shall see"...
sangreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:40
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
None of that is because we have voted to leave so I've really no idea why you think it is relevant.
Because it's not just not quite as bad as some thought it would be, the economy is actually doing well.

Do you seriously think that the Brexit vote triggered fall in the GBP has had no effect on exports or GDP. That the Brexit vote has had no effect on government and bank of England economic policy, and businesses decisions on investment and recruitment. The Brexit vote has changed the current economic environment and expected future economic environment.
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:44
Dotheboyshall
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,306
I like snow....bloody brexit
Snowflakes are persona non grata these days
Dotheboyshall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:58
kidspud
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 11,488
Because it's not just not quite as bad as some thought it would be, the economy is actually doing well.

Do you seriously think that the Brexit vote triggered fall in the GBP has had no effect on exports or GDP. That the Brexit vote has had no effect on government and bank of England economic policy, and businesses decisions on investment and recruitment. The Brexit vote has changed the current economic environment and expected future economic environment.
The economy is doing well because we are part of a strong single market and benefit from all it brings.

The title of this thread is 'why Brexit is succeeding'. Brexit has not contributed to any success.
kidspud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 20:58
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
Admittedly, I didn't read it all. I've got better/other things to do... like work, and real-life tm.
But my comment was mainly based on what the OP said, especially
"on the reasons why the vote didn't result in the catastrophic predictions."

And again, the report is wrong, based on a fallacy, because the predictions WERE based on a vote to leave, the instant triggering of A50, and the resulting end deal after the 2 years of negotiations, not just "on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow" as the report says.... which is another reason why I didn't read it all.

It's only been 6 months, with no triggering of A50, and no negotiations, so how can anyone confidently say any of the predictions have or haven't come true yet?
So when you say "but we can't just ignore ALL other so-called expert opinion.... can we?" You are talking about expert opinions made in reports you have no bothered to read. Yet assume all "the predictions WERE based on a vote to leave, the instant triggering of A50". You have some gall claiming Brexiters relying on what the reports actually said are wrong.
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:00
Nick1966
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North London
Posts: 15,448
Well, the weather's been better. Not had any snow yet, and that big yellow thing can be seen out of the window right now.
What you are saying is correct. Nothing more.
Nick1966 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:04
sangreal
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,159
So when you say "but we can't just ignore ALL other so-called expert opinion.... can we?" You are talking about expert opinions made in reports you have no bothered to read. Yet assume all "the predictions WERE based on a vote to leave, the instant triggering of A50". You have some gall claiming Brexiters relying on what the reports actually said are wrong.

No.

And I haven't claimed anything of the sort.

Now you're just coming across like a wum.

I'm not supporting remain or leave, just logic and common sense - which is a rarity on here
sangreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:06
Dotheboyshall
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,306
But again, for the millionth time, the predictions were based on Cameron's promise to trigger Article 50 on the very next day.
So when May triggers A50 the merde will strike the air conditioning
Dotheboyshall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:11
sangreal
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,159
So when May triggers A50 the merde will strike the air conditioning

Maybe, maybe not, we shall see.

If it does, then the predictions were partly correct.
If it doesn't, then they were wrong.

As I said earlier, the markets are partly reacting on the hope that A50 will never be triggered.

Then we have to wait and see how the negotiations go, what the final exit deal is, what kind of trade arrangement we have with the EEA and how long any potential new deal will take to ratify after the initial 2 years are up.

Once all that's done, we'll take a look at the situation, and then we'll be able to determine whether the predictions came true or not.

Until then, it's all just speculation.
sangreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:24
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
No.

And I haven't claimed anything of the sort.
I used speech marks because I was directly quoting you.
Now you're just coming across like a wum.

I'm not supporting remain or leave, just logic and common sense - which is a rarity here
You complained about brexit voters saying the predictions of doom so far have been wrong. Relying on your assumption about the predictions made based on not having read the reports. Predictions were made about the immediate effect of a vote for Brexit that is simply a fact. Maybe before claiming factually correct brexiters are wrong for the millionth and one time you could actually bother to read the reports that make the predictions.
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:31
sangreal
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,159
I used speech marks because I was directly quoting you.

You complained about brexit voters saying the predictions of doom so far have been wrong. Relying on your assumption about the predictions made based on not having read the reports. Predictions were made about the immediate effect of a vote for Brexit that is simply a fact. Maybe before claiming factually correct brexiters are wrong for the millionth and one time you could actually bother to read the reports that make the predictions.

No, Mr wum, I didn't complain about anything*. You're the one who's complaining, not me.

And again, the predictions were based on much more than just a vote to leave.

Other than that, please just bore off and leave me alone :-/



* until now
sangreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 21:40
Landis
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 7,743
Predictions were made about the immediate effect of a vote for Brexit
This is the first and only thing you have said in this thread that makes any sense.

The Economic forecasters were not asked: "What do you predict if Cameron steps down moments after a Leave vote, and the United Kingdom government then does nothing whatsoever for 9 months or 15 months."

The Economic forecasters were asked: "What do you predict based on the post Leave vote scenario outlined by the Prime Minister."

It seems amazing that you have not noticed this important distinction. Surely it does the forum no favours if you so brazenly propogate a depressing Brexiteer stereotype.
Landis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 22:02
Nick1966
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North London
Posts: 15,448
Rare article in the Independent (as opposed to their usual anti-Brexit rhetoric) on the reasons why the vote didn't result in the catastrophic predictions.

From former IMF director Ashoka Mody

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7509711.html
The article confirmed my own thinking.

"Consumers do not seem fearful of the future and have shown a remarkable willingness to keep the economy humming"

Out of relief that Brexit hasn't been as bad as expected so far, UK consumers continue to spend with confidence.

The UK economy is performing well. But no better than forecast in May 2015, when 2016 GDP growth was forecast around 2.5%. It's likely to be 2.2%.

The UK economy's response to the EU referendum should be seen as one of relief, not jubilation.

It will only take one bad piece of economic news and you might see this happen in UK high streets again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyVk8EI6asQ

Fingers crossed.
Nick1966 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 22:23
Mark_Jones9
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
This is the first and only thing you have said in this thread that makes any sense.

The Economic forecasters were not asked: "What do you predict if Cameron steps down moments after a Leave vote, and the United Kingdom government then does nothing whatsoever for 9 months or 15 months."

The Economic forecasters were asked: "What do you predict based on the post Leave vote scenario outlined by the Prime Minister."

It seems amazing that you have not noticed this important distinction. Surely it does the forum no favours if you so brazenly propogate a depressing Brexiteer stereotype.
It seems you are yet another poster adding your own assumptions to the reports to explain why the predictions of the immediate effects of a vote for brexit have not materialized. Rather than accepting the reality of what the reports actually said and that they got it wrong.
Mark_Jones9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 23:25
Mr Oleo Strut
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,304
The article confirmed my own thinking.

"Consumers do not seem fearful of the future and have shown a remarkable willingness to keep the economy humming"

Out of relief that Brexit hasn't been as bad as expected so far, UK consumers continue to spend with confidence.

The UK economy is performing well. But no better than forecast in May 2015, when 2016 GDP growth was forecast around 2.5%. It's likely to be 2.2%.

The UK economy's response to the EU referendum should be seen as one of relief, not jubilation.

It will only take one bad piece of economic news and you might see this happen in UK high streets again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyVk8EI6asQ

Fingers crossed.
Have you checked the UK deficit or national debt recently? Best not if you want o sleep easily.
Mr Oleo Strut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 23:29
Jayceef1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Kent
Posts: 3,026
None of that is because we have voted to leave so I've really no idea why you think it is relevant.
Maybe because Trevgo, Aurichie, tahiti, Oleo Strut The Engineer and many others think we are suffering beccause of the Brexit vote. Perhaps you could enlighten them.
Jayceef1 is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 05:48.