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Why Brexit is succeeding ! |
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#51 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 6,827
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Quote:
The article confirmed my own thinking.
"Consumers do not seem fearful of the future and have shown a remarkable willingness to keep the economy humming" Out of relief that Brexit hasn't been as bad as expected so far, UK consumers continue to spend with confidence. The UK economy is performing well. But no better than forecast in May 2015, when 2016 GDP growth was forecast around 2.5%. It's likely to be 2.2%. The UK economy's response to the EU referendum should be seen as one of relief, not jubilation. It will only take one bad piece of economic news and you might see this happen in UK high streets again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyVk8EI6asQ Fingers crossed. The OBR forecast for 2016 Q3 +0.5% The OBR forecast for 2016 +2.0% The BoE forecast for 2016 +2.1% The average independent forecast for 2016 +1.9% The Treasury forecast if the referendum result was for brexit was Shock scenario 2016 Q3 -0.1% Q4 -0.1% Severe shock scenario 2016 Q3 -1.0% Q4 -0.4% |
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#52 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North London
Posts: 15,448
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Quote:
In May 2016 before the referendum vote the GDP forecasts were.
The OBR forecast for 2016 Q3 +0.5% The OBR forecast for 2016 +2.0% The BoE forecast for 2016 +2.1% The average independent forecast for 2016 +1.9% The Treasury forecast if the referendum result was for brexit Shock scenario 2016 Q3 -0.1% Q4 -0.1% Severe shock scenario 2016 Q3 -1.0% Q4 -0.4% The referendum result appears to have had little change on GDP growth. It's as if the referendum result had never happened. |
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#53 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
Posts: 37,469
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Don't forget the significant boost the economy's been given to offset Brexit by halving interest rates and pumping 60bn of QE into the economy.
Edit: Obviously not taken into consideration when the earlier forecasts were made. |
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#54 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North London
Posts: 15,448
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Quote:
Don't forget the significant boost the economy's been given to offset Brexit by halving interest rates and pumping 60bn of QE into the economy
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#55 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
Posts: 16,038
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Quote:
Rare article in the Independent (as opposed to their usual anti-Brexit rhetoric) on the reasons why the vote didn't result in the catastrophic predictions.
From former IMF director Ashoka Mody http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7509711.html Stop calling a non event as a success. It's like congratulating a baby on its exam results!
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#56 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 8,076
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Quote:
Has it started?
Bloody hell. Nobody told me. I wonder if Teresa knows. It may not even happen by March, although the price rises due to the weaker pound have started. |
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#57 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,011
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Quote:
*parks bum on seat with a brew*
Ok you got my attention, what comes next? ![]() Do tell. What did the seat with a brew do with the bum and the brew? |
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#58 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Central Belt
Posts: 12,265
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It's amazing how the same people who are lambasting people taking an extreme view on here how bad things are likely to be post Brexit are posting extreme views themselves on how great things will be post Brexit on the totally opposite end of the scale.
There is no shed of evidence that proves hard Brexit will bring strongest Uk economy ever consisting of:- strongest growth figures, the UK's forever huge debt and trade defecit both suddenly turning into a huge surplus record low unemployment, record high house prices, strongest pound vs both the euro and US dollar, lowest ever inflation and interest rates, a record high FTSE, and no UK recession at all when the rest of the world are suffering a deep recession themselves. |
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