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Our forecasts are just about as good as Michael Fish's, admits BoE's chief economist


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Old Today, 02:03
Palafrugel
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Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said profession was ‘in crisis’
Said economists suffered Michael Fish moment over financial crisis and Brexit
He admitted it was 'business as usual' despite the dire warnings of a recession
Weatherman Mr Fish famously told viewers they would be no hurricane in 1987


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4UwWrxOba
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Hopefully this is a watershed moment.
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Old Today, 02:30
david16
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It wasn't a carribean or Florida style storm in 1987. Severe gales more like.

There may have been the odd hurricane force gust in parts of the UK on the track of the storm they were slightly out in 1987 (the strongest winds clipped the UK's south coast when it was expected to be the middle of the sea between the UK and France), but not sustained hurricane force wind speeds throughout the entire storm the way it is in and around the tropics. That's no consolation to those who suffered a lot of damage to their property

But in relation to Brexit, the UK has not actually left the EU. The BoE thought the UK would have started the process of leaving it hours after the result. It would have been a total disaster for the UK economy had the UK started talks to leave the EU straight away.

And the process of leaving the EU is like trying to untangle a load of wires with the attached plugs plugged into a multi gang electrical socket.
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Old Today, 02:36
sangreal
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It's funny how different media outlets spin things....


Andy Haldane: Bank of England has not changed view on negative impact of Brexit
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7511351.html

"Bank of England chief economist says pain has been delayed rather than avoided"

Not even any mention of the Michael Fish comment there....


The BBC's version lies somewhere inbetween the Mail and Independent

Crash was economists' 'Michael Fish' moment, says Andy Haldane
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924

which lays emphasis more on economic predictions in general and particularly the global financial crash of 2007-09 as being the Michael Fish moment...
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Unread Today, 07:06
Dotheboyshall
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You mean mostly accurate.
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Unread Today, 08:05
FusionFury
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Their gloomy predictions were wrong
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Unread Today, 08:24
Andrew1954
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Who knew that accurately predicting the future behaviour of essentially chaotic systems like the weather and economies was inherently difficult?
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Unread Today, 08:27
jmclaugh
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It might be news to them but I'm not sure that many people thought any different except economists and of course anyone whose viewpoint such forecasts vindicated.
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Unread Today, 08:45
smudges dad
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Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said profession was ‘in crisis’
Said economists suffered Michael Fish moment over financial crisis and Brexit
He admitted it was 'business as usual' despite the dire warnings of a recession
Weatherman Mr Fish famously told viewers they would be no hurricane in 1987


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4UwWrxOba
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Hopefully this is a watershed moment.
There wasn't a hurricane. That was false news churned out by the tabloids after the severs storm.
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Unread Today, 10:17
Phil 2804
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There wasn't a hurricane. That was false news churned out by the tabloids after the severs storm.
There was however a severe deadly storm that devastated the south of England that the Met Office wholly and completely failed to forecast. This is not media spin this is and was fact. The storm formed and reached peak strength in a matter of hours and the Met Office lacked the knowledge and data to even know such events were possible in the UK. Its only in the last 50 years or so that the Met Office have accepted tornadoes occur in the UK. Almost everything the Met Office has done in the past 30 years forecast wise has been geared around preventing another 1987 from happening.
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Unread Today, 10:22
Alrightmate
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This is the problem of economics. Perhaps we place too much stock in it as a reliable predictor of the future.

It wasn't until recently that I found out that economics isn't a hard science, it's actually a social science. Not too dissimilar from sociology. I used to think it involved serious number crunching and forecasts based on hard figures. Which it may do to some extent.
But I thought it was a lot more certain as a reliable indicator of future economic predictions.
I don't think I'm alone as I think most members of the public are like myself and shared this perception.
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Unread Today, 10:23
DW2
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Brexit logic:

Met office predict heavy rain
Tabloid newspapers exaggerate weather warning
Michael Gove points out that the weather forecast is often wrong and we've had enough of experts
Nigel Farage predicts glorious sunshine for all.

It drizzles, but the rain is not as heavy as the Met office predicted.

Conclusion....Michael Gove and Nigel Farage were right all along and experts can safely be ignored.
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