|
||||||||
Our forecasts are just about as good as Michael Fish's, admits BoE's chief economist |
![]() |
|
| Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|
|
#1 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,189
|
Our forecasts are just about as good as Michael Fish's, admits BoE's chief economist
Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said profession was ‘in crisis’
Said economists suffered Michael Fish moment over financial crisis and Brexit He admitted it was 'business as usual' despite the dire warnings of a recession Weatherman Mr Fish famously told viewers they would be no hurricane in 1987 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4UwWrxOba Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook Hopefully this is a watershed moment. |
|
|
|
|
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
|
|
|
#2 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Central Belt
Posts: 12,290
|
It wasn't a carribean or Florida style storm in 1987. Severe gales more like.
There may have been the odd hurricane force gust in parts of the UK on the track of the storm they were slightly out in 1987 (the strongest winds clipped the UK's south coast when it was expected to be the middle of the sea between the UK and France), but not sustained hurricane force wind speeds throughout the entire storm the way it is in and around the tropics. That's no consolation to those who suffered a lot of damage to their property But in relation to Brexit, the UK has not actually left the EU. The BoE thought the UK would have started the process of leaving it hours after the result. It would have been a total disaster for the UK economy had the UK started talks to leave the EU straight away. And the process of leaving the EU is like trying to untangle a load of wires with the attached plugs plugged into a multi gang electrical socket. |
|
|
|
|
|
#3 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,165
|
It's funny how different media outlets spin things....
Andy Haldane: Bank of England has not changed view on negative impact of Brexit http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7511351.html "Bank of England chief economist says pain has been delayed rather than avoided" Not even any mention of the Michael Fish comment there.... The BBC's version lies somewhere inbetween the Mail and Independent Crash was economists' 'Michael Fish' moment, says Andy Haldane http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924 which lays emphasis more on economic predictions in general and particularly the global financial crash of 2007-09 as being the Michael Fish moment... |
|
|
|
|
|
#4 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,328
|
Our forecasts are just about as good as Michael Fish's, admits BoE's chief economist
You mean mostly accurate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#5 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
|
Their gloomy predictions were wrong
|
|
|
|
|
|
#6 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 4,024
|
Who knew that accurately predicting the future behaviour of essentially chaotic systems like the weather and economies was inherently difficult?
|
|
|
|
|
|
#7 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 48,023
|
It might be news to them but I'm not sure that many people thought any different except economists and of course anyone whose viewpoint such forecasts vindicated.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#8 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,293
|
Quote:
Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said profession was ‘in crisis’
Said economists suffered Michael Fish moment over financial crisis and Brexit He admitted it was 'business as usual' despite the dire warnings of a recession Weatherman Mr Fish famously told viewers they would be no hurricane in 1987 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4UwWrxOba Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook Hopefully this is a watershed moment. |
|
|
|
|
|
#9 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,126
|
Quote:
There wasn't a hurricane. That was false news churned out by the tabloids after the severs storm.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#10 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 65,796
|
This is the problem of economics. Perhaps we place too much stock in it as a reliable predictor of the future.
It wasn't until recently that I found out that economics isn't a hard science, it's actually a social science. Not too dissimilar from sociology. I used to think it involved serious number crunching and forecasts based on hard figures. Which it may do to some extent. But I thought it was a lot more certain as a reliable indicator of future economic predictions. I don't think I'm alone as I think most members of the public are like myself and shared this perception. Maybe the reality of the situation is that there are so many variables involved that things can change or be missed so that predictions need to be flexible in order to accommodate chaos. You also have the problem which can perhaps be likened to polling, you're not necessarily sure that you're working with the best possible data in the first place. So the best you can do is make a good estimate based on the reliability of the data you are using. It's worth bearing in mind when they tell us that it is predicted that China will become the world superpower halfway through this century. It just may well be that this will not happen. |
|
|
|
|
|
#11 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 274
|
Brexit logic:
A group of friends vote on if they should go to the beach tomorrow or the cinema. Met Office predict heavy rain Tabloid newspapers exaggerate weather warning and then brand it as project fear Michael Gove points out that the weather forecast is often wrong and we've had enough of experts Nigel Farage predicts glorious sunshine for all. Reality: It drizzles, but the rain is not as heavy as the Met office predicted. It turns out that nobody who voted to go to the beach had a wet weather plan. Conclusion....Michael Gove and Nigel Farage were right all along and those so-called experts at the Met Office can safely be ignored. They sit on the beach, in the drizzle, congratulating themselves for ignoring the experts. |
|
|
|
|
|
#12 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 48,023
|
Quote:
This is the problem of economics. Perhaps we place too much stock in it as a reliable predictor of the future.
It wasn't until recently that I found out that economics isn't a hard science, it's actually a social science. Not too dissimilar from sociology. I used to think it involved serious number crunching and forecasts based on hard figures. Which it may do to some extent. But I thought it was a lot more certain as a reliable indicator of future economic predictions. I don't think I'm alone as I think most members of the public are like myself and shared this perception. Maybe the reality of the situation is that there are so many variables involved that things can change or be missed so that predictions need to be flexible in order to accommodate chaos. You also have the problem which can perhaps be likened to polling, you're not necessarily sure that you're working with the best possible data in the first place. So the best you can do is make a good estimate based on the reliability of the data you are using. It's worth bearing in mind when they tell us that it is predicted that China will become the world superpower halfway through this century. It just may well be that this will not happen. |
|
|
|
|
|
#13 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,328
|
And has been pointed out the forecasts assumed article 50 would have been triggered immediately
|
|
|
|
|
|
#14 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 48,023
|
Quote:
And has been pointed out the forecasts assumed article 50 would have been triggered immediately
|
|
|
|
|
|
#15 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Central Belt
Posts: 12,290
|
Quote:
There was however a severe deadly storm that devastated the south of England that the Met Office wholly and completely failed to forecast. This is not media spin this is and was fact. The storm formed and reached peak strength in a matter of hours and the Met Office lacked the knowledge and data to even know such events were possible in the UK. Its only in the last 50 years or so that the Met Office have accepted tornadoes occur in the UK. Almost everything the Met Office has done in the past 30 years forecast wise has been geared around preventing another 1987 from happening.
Michael Fish also said baton down the hatches on that 9.30pm forecast hours before because it was going to be very windy. |
|
|
|
|
|
#16 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,293
|
Quote:
There was however a severe deadly storm that devastated the south of England that the Met Office wholly and completely failed to forecast. This is not media spin this is and was fact. The storm formed and reached peak strength in a matter of hours and the Met Office lacked the knowledge and data to even know such events were possible in the UK. Its only in the last 50 years or so that the Met Office have accepted tornadoes occur in the UK. Almost everything the Met Office has done in the past 30 years forecast wise has been geared around preventing another 1987 from happening.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#17 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 65,796
|
Quote:
There is also the fact that economists are people and people are not without bias on many issues which explains why for example left wing economic views and forecasts differ from right wing ones..
|
|
|
|
|
|
#18 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 13,968
|
Quote:
Brexit logic:
A group of friends vote on if they should go to the beach tomorrow or the cinema. Met Office predict heavy rain Tabloid newspapers exaggerate weather warning and then brand it as project fear Michael Gove points out that the weather forecast is often wrong and we've had enough of experts Nigel Farage predicts glorious sunshine for all. Reality: It drizzles, but the rain is not as heavy as the Met office predicted. It turns out that nobody who voted to go to the beach had a wet weather plan. Conclusion....Michael Gove and Nigel Farage were right all along and those so-called experts at the Met Office can safely be ignored. They sit on the beach, in the drizzle, congratulating themselves for ignoring the experts. If economists with an agenda similar to ours issue enough doom laden forecasts then one of them might become reality. |
|
|
|
|
|
#19 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 65,796
|
Quote:
And has been pointed out the forecasts assumed article 50 would have been triggered immediately
Each time a new variable pops up due to the knock-on effect of an unexpected change the calculations need to adjust based on a new reality which has presented itself, thus throwing other things out of synch. So I think that the best we can hope for is that economics work, but mainly in chunks of time in the short to mid term. Otherwise we'd never get recessions because most forecasts would predict them in time and we would have time to readjust beforehand. |
|
|
|
|
|
#20 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 274
|
Quote:
Remoan Logic :
If economists with an agenda similar to ours issue enough doom laden forecasts then one of them might become reality. |
|
|
|
|
|
#21 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 13,968
|
Quote:
Even if a minority of the doom and gloom forecasts come true that's still worrying. How many of the positive predictions made by Brexiteers have started to come true?
|
|
|
|
|
|
#22 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 274
|
Quote:
"positive predictions" It's not a prediction duel. Tell you what, how about actually being positive and making it work.
Surely Brexit has to offer us some positives otherwise what was the point in it? Pointing out that it wasn't as bigger disaster as many predicted is hardly a massive boast. |
|
|
|
|
|
#23 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,649
|
What, you mean they were right 99.9% of the time and got it wrong once? I'm struggling to work out how it's a good thing that the pound has crashed and the BoE had to prepare emergency stabilisation measures.
It's a better record than Brexiters - 99.9% lies, 100% wrong |
|
|
|
|
|
#24 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,189
|
Quote:
What, you mean they were right 99.9% of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
#25 |
|
Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 13,968
|
Quote:
So far the pound has fallen, interest rate have been cut, along with other interventions, in an attempt to stabalise the economy and hate crimes have increased. Sure, this is a long way off from complete economic collapse and world war three, however it's still not great.
Surely Brexit has to offer us some positives otherwise what was the point in it? Pointing out that it wasn't as bigger disaster as many predicted is hardly a massive boast. |
|
|
|
![]() |
|
|
All times are GMT. The time now is 11:38.


