Well if it's too soon to judge the claims made by Brexiteers then surely it's also too soon to judge the claims made by remainers.

What claims have been made by Brexiteers then??

Prior to the referendum I was receiving Brexit junk mail predicting everything from better trade deals than we currently have, an extra £350 million per week to the NHS and less bureaucracy. Are you telling me that the Bexiteers in your area weren't making any promises or predictions and you voted leave on the back of an inspiring campaign around how things would only be made slightly worse?

What either side may have said about what will happen when we have left the EU can't happen yet as we are still in the EU.

Which goes back to my original point - either the jury is still out for both sides or neither.

Unless a side made a claim something would happen before we have left the EU then yes. If either did make such a claim it is possible to see some 6 months after the vote if it happened.

Well maybe you need to explain that to the Daily Mail, linked to in the original post, or Trunkster, who I was replying to, rather than paraphrasing what I've already said in a way that makes it look as if your disagreement is with me.

There were some on the Remain side who predicted economic consequences immediately after a vote to leave which is what I think the said BoE economist is referring to, i.e. those things didn't happen.

As Cameron said he would hold talks in Brussels for the UK to leave the EU on the Friday afternoon of the result if it was a Brexit verdict the moment he called the referendum, it's quite obvious that the bottom would not fall out of the UK economy "never to recover" there and then when he decided to resign his position as UK Prime Minister instead of going to Brussels to press ahead with article 50 negotiations with EU leaders.

Talks that have still to take place and may get delayed further till well after this March if MP's have to have a debate and vote in the commons to rubberstamp Brexit.

But there have been economic consequences (e.g a fall in the pound caused by the uncertainty of Brexit) What you mean is that there hasn't been a 100% success rate in the remain predictions.

Are you assuming that when we do leave the EU 100% of the predictions made by Brexiteers will happen in the exact way they described?

The Tabloid newspapers did not exaggerate the economic warnings over Brexit made by the various expert organizations. They really were dire.

If the cinema is only showing movies you don't like a walk in the rain is preferable if it takes you where you want to go.

I would expect the predictions of impartial expert organizations to be more accurate than those of partisan politicians craving power.

Indeed the projections were based on activating article 50 on June 24, Cameron staying, and implicitly, Osborne continuing his defecit reduction strategy. It wasn't, he didn't, and Hammond has moved the goalpost back two years at least on defecit reduction..

Where the estimates seem to have under-estimated the gains from brexit have been with the impact of a falling currency, and by under-estimating how well the conomy was doing pre brexit. The second hardly fits the brexiters view of the economic situation.

The longer term estimates show all the Remainer's issues piling up on the horizon - lower growth, lower tax take, less investment chased by lower taxes, and a brexit brain drain to Eire, Paris and Germany. The upside is the same - deluded talk about returning to the old White Empire, and prospering from all the, magical, global trade deals - the ones we couldn't prosper with in the 50s, 60s and seventies.

Do you seriously think that the Daily Mail never exaggerate or misrepresent experts? Take the article linked to in the original post:

What the Dail Mail says: "Our forecasts are just about as good as Michael Fish's: Bank of England chief's stark admission as it's revealed Britain has the STRONGEST economy in the world despite Brexit warnings"

But wait...other news sources are saying that he compared the 2008 crash to Michael Fish, not Brexit! For example Business Insider says "The Bank of England's chief economist likened economists' failure to predict the economic carnage of the 2008 financial crisis to Michael Fish's weather forecast " As do most other news articles on this topic.

So here we already have one example - the expert says the failure to predict the 2008 financial crash was a Michael Fish moment however the Daily Mail twists the quote to make it look like they were talking about Brexit.


But there's a difference between saying that experts are fallible, which is a perfectly reasonable position to hold, and making out that they are completely useless, which is what the Daily Mail and other supporters of Brexit are trying to do. Gary Linker's failure to predict Leicester City winning the Premier League doesn't automatically make everything else he says about football wrong.

Or reality.
2016 GDP Q1 0.4% Q2 0.7% have been revised down to Q1 0.3% Q2 0.6%
They overestimated how well the economy was doing prior to Brexit not underestimated.

Also it is a fact that predictions were made by the Treasury of the immediate effect of Brexit winning the vote, and those predictions have been proven wrong.
They predicted
Shock scenario 2016 GDP Q3 -0,1% Q4 -0.1%
Severe shock scenario 2016 GDP Q3 -1.0% Q4 -0.4%
The financial markets in severe turmoil and more importantly prolonged turmoil. Severe shock scenario 50% as bad as the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
The GBP would fall sharply in value within two years hitting a low of shock scenario -12%, severe shock scenario -15%
They also predicted unemployment would rise and wages would fall. Over two years hitting shock scenario extra 520,000 unemployed, severe shock scenario extra 820,000 unemployed.
Inflation would rise but house prices fall.

In the eighties it was taken as said that Japan would become the worlds largest economy. The handful who warned of a possible banking crash, early this century, were dismissed by their peers as idiots. Even Warren Buffet, who, in 2004, predicted the collapse of America's banks, saying they'd invested in derivative products that were 'weapons of mass financial destruction.' Despite his unequalled record on economics since the sixties, the current lot of 'experts' said he's a great man but he's getting old, and doesn't understand the new economy.
The late American economist JK Galbraith said economists had never foreseen a major economic event, and I know of nothing that contradicts that. Makes you wonder what use are economists?

Yes those are good examples, thanks for reminding me about Japan and the predictions.
It's still a great country in many ways, but it has had its problems.

If you make economic predictions with a model based on what has already happened, and then make economic plans to try to align economic policy to fit with those predictions of the future, you may be making fundamental changes to the shape which destabilises the foundations of the path you're intending to take.
The more you try to force something into shape, the shape you want it to be, the more you may introduce forces which are resistant to your efforts to shape it.

It might be one of those disciplines which work well when you analyse something in hindsight as a passive observer. You see shapes forming and patterns and trends emerge in the past, "Yes, this happened, and therefore that's why that happened", but maybe once you interject and interact with the process and try to force it to maintain a certain shape you introduce something new and corrupt the process to some extent.

This is an insult to weather forecasters. From what I've seen economists' forecasts have been no better than guessing. At least the weather forecast is often right.

We all knew. That's why we ignored the BoE.
They also should have known this and taken a wider and more impartial view.
Their error was in taking a position so strongly when it was not possible to predict.
How many people did they influence?

Why would you write this, you know it makes the wonky eyes go swivly eyed.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...HAEL-FISH.html