According to my sample figures, which I remind people are a smallish sample and not necessarily reflective of the overall vote...

Mary has 53% against Craig's 47%. Of course, things may change...

Interesting, Kaitho. Would you say these figures, being such a small sample and being so close, point to a negligible difference?

I don't know how to take them, to be honest. It's a very close call indeed, and the number of votes seems to have taken a drop - due to lack of texts, I guess.

I'll post an update in here later on this afternoon. If I see a swing further in Mary's direction, that might be telling. If I see a swing to Craig, I'll be keeping my hand in my wallet and cursing that a gambling opp has been lost

Yes, thank you. Great job! Keep up the good work

This contest could be tighter than a gnat's chuff. Keep an ear out for clues from the big mouth of Davina. This is how I cleaned up when Victor confounded the polls and was evicted last year. The polls are quite often wrong.

What, even the goliath that is BB Online?

... I don't think they were.

Yes, they are. As I remember, Victor was on his way to losing well before the fight with Shell as well. It's both interesting and baffling how wrong the polls can be sometimes.

Sometimes, esp in fag-paper contests like this.

The way I'm treating this is I'm taking the vote as 50-50 and factoring in the polls, all of which show a Craig lead.

Jason was apparently way ahead of Victor in the votes before the argument with Shell, according to Davina anyway. I remember BBOnline originally had Jason going, but started a new poll on the Friday which indicated that Victor was finished and Davina made it rather obvious in the late show by practically begging people not to vote for Victor.

So when Davina says, "It's incredibly close", she might actually be telling the truth for once

a few problems with this eviction

1. craig has no support
2. people remember craigs drivel in his 'hello' video
3. mary has some support with older women who like her nasty touch they pay the phonebill in their house.
4. it will likely be a low vote

all making it a bit unpredictable

sada had no chance cos she was nice. keeping mary in is a silent 'act of rebellion'

According to my source, Victor was leading in the votes from the start (irrespective of the polls). I can't claim I posted it on here at the time. I didn't, because I was in Edinburgh and didn't see a computer for two weeks.

Anyway - update time. Mary has polled three times more votes than Craig since my original post. I'm beginning to have a little more confidence with this.

I'm pretty glad I got 13/8 on Mary leaving then!

The polls are often wrong because they are not a true sample. Many BB viewers/voters do not have the time/inclination/opportunity to get involved on sites like this. This is the 'Cameron vote' or 'housewives vote' (tho they aren't all housewives). My suspicion is that they are very anti-Mary but I doubted that they would be any less anti-Craig.

Until last year the DSBB polls were notorious for just how inaccurate they were - it'll be interesting to see if normality has been restored or not.

BTW ... good work Kaitho. Like you say - you only have access to an unrepresentative sample and so there's always the possibility that you will get egg on your face but any 'straw in the wind' is handy at times like this...

Isn't it good to have a close vote for once...

I'm not worried about egg on my face. Water off a duck's back, that I'm just a bit worried that people will bet on it as a result of what I've written and that they might lose. That would be my concern, which is why I've tried to make it clear that these figs aren't the gospel.

I've bitten the bullet though. I fancy Mary to be going and I've put money on it now...

Good bye Mary............. I want you gone!

Dont fret, if people gamble they know the risks. That said, any late data would be appreciated.

My money is still going on Craig....no offence

Me too I only put £10 on but it makes the eviction night a bit more exciting.
I've been slagging Mary off on the AOL BB board this morning in the hope of influencing a few votes, but most people over there already seem to agree with me. Whoever goes it will be close.

Yea, it is time Mary waved BB off!

until Craig walks through the door tonite

Nooo!

It will get mopre strong for Craig evey second. I know it!

I should hopefully be able to get a post out at around 5pm, but after that that'll be it.

Certainly no offence taken. If I hadn't piled on Mary, I'd be wishing you all the luck in the world.

I only put £5 on it - not clear cut in my own mind to risk much more!