Also the bookies will change the odds if lots of money goes on one person, regardless of how they are fairing on polls. If i had say £50,000 and put the money on Mary to win at 22/1. The bookies would reduce Mary's odds to say 10/1 because they would have too big a liability to pay out incase she won. They would change the odds and make sure no onegets the chance to put money on that outcome at that price.

Also, you need to remember that odds are NOT a measure of probability: they are a measure of how happy the bookies are to pay money back for an event happening. Or, its a measure of the RISK that bookies are prepared to take with their money.

Say for instance there was a *measurable* probability of X happening of 50%.

Now if you were a bookie you would want to REDUCE the RISK of losing (bookies ALWAYS win in the long term), so you would set the odds at a figure that meant that if YOU DID LOSE, the loss would not exceed your income (in theory) - so , if you established a 50% chance of X, you would set the odds at 2/1 (or lower) AGAINST, rather than say 4/1. (becuase you'd have a net LOSS of £4 for every £1 bet recieved, if you were the bookie).

However, in most cases, the probability of X is *not* measurable so the bookies are estimating - which is where they can make mistakes.

Just as well or punters would never win: it is only because the odds are a *guess* that we punters win: if the probabilty was measurable, the bookies would just set he odds at the exact probability.

Bookies will often modify the odds based on the money they receive for a certain bet(plus other factors)

So, for example, if they were not receiving money for craig to go at 4/6, then they might lengthen the odds to 1/1 to attract more money.

Remember: people betting does not reflect the same people as those voting. You must be 18 or over to bet. There is no age restriction to voting on BB.

EDIT: as chapp21 has already suggested

Its no wonder I dont go to the bookies, this is majorly confusing!

What if its written in ink (IE the grand national in the paper) could they still change the odds so that they wouldn't lose TOO badly?? (the bookies)

It is confusing if you're not use to it. So you will not be on your own Scary. People have to remember it is not a science and there are many factors that come in to consideration when compiling odds.

Of course if you know the result in advance then the odds dont matter. Hence the useful inside info provided by one or two people on this site

The safest way around it is to keep hold of your money.
I have occasionaly learnt the hard way in the past.

have you ever watched the betting on a two horse race in fact on BB in the past it's very rare for the favourite to be changed something tells me that the bookies have got the sniff of a betting scam and have moved to avert them getting stung by changing the odds as quickly as they have done

Unless you ask to take the price when you make the bet, you will be given the final odds. so if a horse is 10/1 when you have a bet in the morning and in the afternoon the bookies have 100s of thousonds of pounds on it the odds will shortern and shortern and may end up at 2/1.

Unless you asked to take the price of 10/1 you ticket will automatically be payed at 2/1.

Remember that this works both ways so it's not always the best bet to take the price as it might drift out and you could end up with 14/1 for example.

The bookies know less than you do. They have work to do and dont spend all day/night watching the streaming. They are mearly adjusting odds in proportion to the money being bet. More people are betting on Mary to be evicted so her price to go is shortening.

Odds vary all the time - you are quoted the odds at the time of placing the bet and those are the odds that apply to your bet (usually)

A wise man once said, "Betting odds don't measure the likelihood of an event happening. They're merely a measure of our surprise when it does."

Don't be fooled. The bookies have every angle covered. There will be people working for bookmakers whos job it is to watch BB 24/7. They leave nothing to chance. Nothing!!!

completly agree.
they even have people go down to individual stables to watch how a horse is running on the gallops for weeks before big races...

Wouldn't be to sure there toffy.
BB is a HUGE money earner for the bookmakers and i wouldn't be suprised if most of the UK bookies had 24/7 dedicated teams to monitor Internet Polls/Live Streams ect.
This would be similar to sporting events such as snooker, tennis, golf ect that usually have 'resident' bookies monitoring throughout these events.
Although i might be totally wrong.

edit*sorry chapp for basically repeating what you quoted.*
Last edited by earnie : 03-06-2005 at 14:18

No, you're not wrong. Paddy Power on BBLB yesterday admitted that he had 2 people watching the live streaming. Also had people watching polls and internet forums etc to try and assess risk. Of course also admitted that the amount of stake money was an influence too.

I actualy was the odds compiler for a major high street firm for BB4 and watched it no more or less than I do now. Big Brother betting is small potatoes compared to horses, dogs, football etc and no firm will have anyone spending more than 30 minutes a day compiling odds then a few times during the day they will be monitoring the stakes
and competitors odds.

http://www.racing-index.com/decimal-...onversion.html

Dont beleive anything PP says, he is a self publisist of the highest order.

the first rule of betting is.....

....only bet that amount of money you are happy to lose.

v.useful...ty