yes that's correct, Ladbrokes have Alex back as favorite, with Kate/Jonny joint second favorites.
I disagree that Alex's friendship with Tim would affect his popularity. What are you suggesting, that for Alex to abandon his friendship with Tim will make him more popular??
The public knows he has bonded with Tim from the day Tim entered the house; the public also knows that he doesn't like Jonny, and Jade/Kate to a lesser extent; any negative comments he makes about them will not have the same impact than if he had been outwardly friendly with them (-Adele's mistake). People aren't stupid, they will judge each HM on their own merits in voting. Eg. Adele was hated by a majority of the public, but that has not translated to general hatred of Alex by association.
On the contrary, it would likely harm Alex's popularity more if he was to start distancing himself from Tim; if there's one thing most people abhor, it's "fairweather friends". That Alex stands by his friends even in the face of their public unpopularity can only earn him respect.