We know how many votes were cast overall, and that at the point at which Alex was evicted, he had 27.4% of the total votes for Alex, Jonny and Kate. Based on that, were had been 8.1m votes cast by the time Alex was evicted, and about another 0.5m cast in the last half hour.
Combine the various constraints and I can calculate that at the point that Alex was evicted, the percentage shares between Alex, Jonny and Kate were 27.4%, (27.4%-33.5%) and (39.0%-45.2%) respectively. I've placed Jonny and Kates shares in brackets since clearly we don't know the exact figures, which are based on their share of the 0.5m votes cast in the final half hour. If you assume that the relative popularity of Jonny vs Kate was roughly the same during the last half hour as the whole week overall, then the estimated percentage share between
Alex, Jonny and Kate at the time of the 2nd eviction was 27.4% for Alex, 30.4% for Jonny and 42.1% for Kate, which fall nicely in the middle of the ranges above.
Making the same (big) assumption about popularity not changing over the course of the final, the percentages at the first eviction can be estimated as:
Jade 20%
Alex 22%
Jonny 24.5%
Kate 33.5%
Last edited by TonyH : 29-07-2002 at 16:02