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Blue Ray / HD DVD - Will they really take over from DVD?
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RebelScum
03-05-2007
Putting aside industry hype and talking as an average Joe, do you think BR or HD DVD will really take over from DVD?

People have just spent the last 10 years or so updating their collection from VHS to DVD, not to mention upgrading from standard DVDs to Special Editions/Director's Edition & Ultimate Editions.

Now the industyry is trying to push not just one but two new formats. Thing is, HDMI DVD players may not give 100% HD quality but they do a great job and I feel will be enough to keep most people happy.

The industry can claim what they want about trying to give the consumer better quality but at the end of the day peopel will just see this for what it is - marketing greed.
Chparmar
03-05-2007
HDMI DVD players are good at up scaling DVD content but no way is it great or mind-blowing!

The good thing is that both Blu-ray and HD-DVD are fully DVD backwards compatible.

Once a BD or HD-DVD player gets around $25, I think it's a natural progression to upgrade and discontinue "just" DVD players. You don't have to replace your DVD collection; but with new movies; I rather buy a copy with higher quality than not!

It's not however gonna be a mass-impact like DVD was to the industry and I don't think it will increase $$$ for many companies involved. The few hardcore Home Cinema fans will be the only ones replacing their collection.
Last edited by Chparmar : 03-05-2007 at 15:20
Gilbertoo
03-05-2007
of course BR and/or HD-DVD will take over from DVD, why wouldn't improved picture quality and sound not prevail? It will succeed....as DVD did against VHS, CD did against vinyl records/cassettes and more recently, digital did against analogue. Going forward SED TV will replace LCD/Plasma which originally took over from CRT...

Wait 5 years and HD content will be more prominent than it is today and by that time, no doubt, another technological breakthrough will emerge.
Last edited by Gilbertoo : 03-05-2007 at 15:30
A-Friend
03-05-2007
some interesting examples there Gilbertoo (I don't want to spark off the vinyl vs CD debate) ... but in answer to
Originally Posted by Gilbertoo:
“why wouldn't improved picture quality and sound not prevail?”

Betamax vs VHS???

There's more to it than just quality - promotion, accessability, perceived/actual benefit and price play a huge part as well!!
Kojack
04-05-2007
People will eventually buy HD/BR when it becomes cheap enough to do so, & it should take over what we currently call DVD.

When DVD first came out in late 98 to early 99 it had the largest impact on home entertainment second only to colour TV, it took off faster than the VCR, but the benefits of HD/BR aren't big enough to have a similar impact on our lifes.

I agree in the short term anyway, upscaling for a lot of people is ample until the price of HD/BR is cheap enough.
David (2)
04-05-2007
improved quality alone does not always = a marketing sucsess story. SACD anyone? Or what about DVD-A.....both the so called next gen audio disc formats, but where are they now......gone the same way as Mini disc. With muisc the new high res auido formats did not take of, and people instead bought into the "music download" idea, and that gave us things like DRM restrictions, and numerous audio file formats to contend with. Those who didnt want the hassle of that just kept buying the basic CD.

I think its quite likely that video will go the same way. No more discs in the future, HD-DVD and BlueRay will be dead end formats, apart from on popular games machines like PlayStaion3. If Apple or anyone gets in on this "video download" and start selling films and tv progs in the same way they did with music then actual discs will be a thing of the past in 10 years. I think people will be happy to buy into that technology, even the picture quality is not as good as HD-DVD/BlueRay, and even if the download "providers" are confusing us with various different formats and encription standards. Like with audio, many people will not buy a new disc format that is not going anywhere and steer clear of internet downloads, and therefore keep the "old" basic DVD format going a while longer.

Dave
skinj
04-05-2007
Don't quite agree with David (2) on the last post. The main reason that SACD & DVD-A didi not take off was because CD is of high enough quality to satisfy most people in their own home. The cost of the equipment to play it on was also too high at the start without the perceived benefits outweighing the cost. CD was a sucess over vinyl because it was of high enough quality to replace vinyl and also a lot more conveinient and durable at the same time. Downloads became popular because again they are of high enough quality to satisfy people while listening on the move whilst also be very durable.
DVD replaced VHS because of its overall quality and convienience.
HD/BD will replace DVD because is has all the same advantages of DVD but with higher quality thrown in. It will not be a mass upheaval that we saw with VHS/DVD but more of a gradual replacement of machines when people either need to buy new ones, or fancy a change.
The ever increasing size of TV screens will be a major reason why people will switch to HD/BD over the next few years.
That said DVD will be around for a long time probably as software more than hardware.
Gilbertoo
04-05-2007
Originally Posted by A-Friend:
“some interesting examples there Gilbertoo (I don't want to spark off the vinyl vs CD debate) ... but in answer to

Betamax vs VHS???

There's more to it than just quality - promotion, accessability, perceived/actual benefit and price play a huge part as well!!”

I own approx. 2000 records and about 100 CD's but to the mass market as a whole, CD's have prevailed...and you could argue that mp3 will soon take over from commercially bought CD albums & singles. Which actually opposes what I say about quality because mp3 is arguably inferior to CD quality music.....however, we're talking film here, not music. Do people want genuine cinema quality clarity, colour, resolution, etc.? Hell yeah!

I deliberately chose not to include Betamax vs. VHS as you're right, the format that won was the one that had the better marketing, accessibility, price, perceived/actual benefit, etc. etc. However, that's not to say that the same will happen this time as back then, it was brand new technology so either way, you were onto a winner. With HD, it's just better quality of a now existing entertainment medium....the home cinema.

Now, asides from the improved quality of HD content, the take over will truly happen once the non-quality points you raised before (promotion, access, price, etc.) start to kick-in and the whole BR vs. HD-DVD war settles...

Yee-haw!
thats not cool
04-05-2007
they wil definilty take off eventually
to much money has gone into producing HD films Tv shows etc not to
take sky HD and crappy VM+ for instance all the big companies want this and that is what they are getting hence cheaper prices for the stooges
Gilbertoo
04-05-2007
Originally Posted by skinj:
“That said DVD will be around for a long time probably as software more than hardware.”

Incidentally, if Mr Bill Gates is to be believed, he claims that the new HD formats will be the last physical form of home cinema media.....if he get's his way, people won't have shelves full of DVD, CD's, etc. anymore. Instead, we'll all have server racks next to our TV's with terabytes of HD quality film and music.....all courtesy of Microsoft of course!
Elojikal
04-05-2007
Yeah but then he predicted the end of paper too.

(he wouldn't have predicted the end of paper if he owned a forest or two...)
Gilbertoo
04-05-2007
Originally Posted by Elojikal:
“Yeah but then he predicted the end of paper too.

(he wouldn't have predicted the end of paper if he owned a forest or two...)”

...the end of paper will definitely happen.....once he decides to get his $1,000,000,000,000,000,000 printed....
guitardave
04-05-2007
The problem as I see it is that unless you've got a huge telly - 42" or bigger - then the jump in quality between dvd and Blu Ray is just not that big, unless you're sitting really close to the screen. The average member of the public doesn't have a huge telly, they have 28" and 32" telly's, and on those size screens a dvd looks so good and so much better than VHS that that's enough for them. Not everyone can afford giant telly's, so ultimately it all boils down to the technology becoming affordable to the mass market ie £50 Blu Ray players in Asda, and £300 42" lcd's. When that happens, then Blu Ray will truly take off.


Dave
Chparmar
06-05-2007
Originally Posted by David (2):
“improved quality alone does not always = a marketing sucsess story. SACD anyone? Or what about DVD-A.....

Dave”


Yeah, but TVs now come with HD as standard. Meaning everyone will soon have the capability.

Whereas, big budget high quality music centers didn't!!
buntyjames
06-05-2007
Originally Posted by Gilbertoo:
“of course BR and/or HD-DVD will take over from DVD, why wouldn't improved picture quality and sound not prevail? It will succeed....as DVD did against VHS, CD did against vinyl records/cassettes and more recently, digital did against analogue. Going forward SED TV will replace LCD/Plasma which originally took over from CRT...

Wait 5 years and HD content will be more prominent than it is today and by that time, no doubt, another technological breakthrough will emerge.”


DVD did not require a new tv to enjoy its superiority over VHS.

And if you got a dvd player it didn't mean that all the stuff you had always watched was suddenly going to be shit, which is what happens when standard def stuff is pumped into an LCD set.

As most will still watch sd tv from Sky or Freeview this will put them off getting the necessary tv for enjoying HD.

Until there is a winner in the format war HD discs will never replace dvd
buntyjames
06-05-2007
Originally Posted by skinj:
“Don't quite agree with David (2) on the last post. The main reason that SACD & DVD-A didi not take off was because CD is of high enough quality to satisfy most people in their own home. The cost of the equipment to play it on was also too high at the start without the perceived benefits outweighing the cost. CD was a sucess over vinyl because it was of high enough quality to replace vinyl and also a lot more conveinient and durable at the same time. Downloads became popular because again they are of high enough quality to satisfy people while listening on the move whilst also be very durable.
DVD replaced VHS because of its overall quality and convienience.
HD/BD will replace DVD because is has all the same advantages of DVD but with higher quality thrown in. It will not be a mass upheaval that we saw with VHS/DVD but more of a gradual replacement of machines when people either need to buy new ones, or fancy a change.
The ever increasing size of TV screens will be a major reason why people will switch to HD/BD over the next few years.
That said DVD will be around for a long time probably as software more than hardware.”

You really think that it was more of an upheaval moving from VHS to dvd than it is going from DVD to HDDVD/BR?

People bought a dvd player.
That was all it took.
You could still enjoy VHS aswell.

Not so this time.
First of all there's the new tv.
Then there's the drop in quality with everything apart from HD inputs.

Obviously far more upheaval this time.
Thats why DVD took off so fast,and why neither HDDVD or Blu-Ray is going to be classed a guaranteed success for many years (unless something drastic changes)
JimRockford
07-05-2007
At the moment the combined sales of both BD and HD-DVD are less than 1% of the home video market. That's tiny. DVD will be around for a long time yet, and many manufacturers are putting their focus on upscaling technology as the future of HD Disc formats is uncertain.
Catbed
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by buntyjames:
“And if you got a dvd player it didn't mean that all the stuff you had always watched was suddenly going to be shit, which is what happens when standard def stuff is pumped into an LCD set.”

As long as people make sweeping generalisations like this there will certainly be confusion. As ever, a number of people have rushed out and bought a cheap 'new technology' TV and then complain that it is rubbish. I've seen plenty of rubbish CRTs over the years and always chose carefully what I bought and made sure the signal (aerial) was up to scratch - almost without exception people commented on how good our picture was and our 'discarded' sets have always found new homes without a problem.

I've done the same research exercise with getting a flat panel. This is currently only SD sourced, and the picture is perfectly good 80% of the time, a bit shaky about 5% and stunningly good the other 15% - and that is mostly on Freeview stuff. HD is coming, but I certainly don't feel any need to rush out and buy it to somehow satisfy the tv.
Gilbertoo
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by buntyjames:
“DVD did not require a new tv to enjoy its superiority over VHS.

And if you got a dvd player it didn't mean that all the stuff you had always watched was suddenly going to be shit, which is what happens when standard def stuff is pumped into an LCD set.

As most will still watch sd tv from Sky or Freeview this will put them off getting the necessary tv for enjoying HD.

Until there is a winner in the format war HD discs will never replace dvd”

...but when the majority of new TV's available are capable of showing HD content, the change will happen sooner than you think....to think that HD will not replace DVD is very silly indeed!

Also, be careful when comparing SD & DVD in the same breath....of course, you do know that compression and bandwidth limits SD images on Sky, etc.....DVD often looks much better than SD images on an LCD/Plasma TV.

If you agree that HD will takeover DVD, say so....don't merely infere it...
Gilbertoo
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by buntyjames:
“Obviously far more upheaval this time. Thats why DVD took off so fast,and why neither HDDVD or Blu-Ray is going to be classed a guaranteed success for many years (unless something drastic changes)”

Obviously NOT my friend! HD-DVD & Blu-ray players are backward compatible so no need to replace all your DVD archive....so you'll still be able to play your old DVD's as well as HD content! Who knows, maybe some players will also upscale DVD content so maybe the quality will increase all round.....yes, no, maybe?

As I mentioned previously, most TV's available today are HD compatible so like it or not, the change will take place, whether or not entirely by the customers own choice remains to be seen (i.e. analogue switch off anyone?)
Dave5158
07-05-2007
Once somebody comes up with a reasonably priced player that is both Blu-Ray AND HD-DVD compatible then, I think, we will begin see the end of standard DVD players. Don't forget that, at the moment, both formats are incompatible.

What I would like to see is a HDD-PVR with some form of HiDef recording ability.
Gilbertoo
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by Dave5158:
“Once somebody comes up with a reasonably priced player that is both Blu-Ray AND HD-DVD compatible then, I think, we will begin see the end of standard DVD players. Don't forget that, at the moment, both formats are incompatible.

What I would like to see is a HDD-PVR with some form of HiDef recording ability.”

Dual players already exist (Samsung, LG)....albeit quite expensive ones. Once more are launched, the price will start to fall.
Dave5158
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by Gilbertoo:
“Dual players already exist (Samsung, LG)....albeit quite expensive ones. Once more are launched, the price will start to fall.”

That's why I wrote "reasonably priced"
yesparker
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by Gilbertoo:
“...but when the majority of new TV's available are capable of showing HD content, the change will happen sooner than you think....to think that HD will not replace DVD is very silly indeed!

Also, be careful when comparing SD & DVD in the same breath....of course, you do know that compression and bandwidth limits SD images on Sky, etc.....DVD often looks much better than SD images on an LCD/Plasma TV.

If you agree that HD will takeover DVD, say so....don't merely infere it...”

Thats the key .NEW tv ,you need a new tv to view HD.

With dvd you didn't.

I've yet to see a decent SD picture from any LCD or plasma ,and thats with dvd ,not just over compressed DSAT and DTT.

Of course in the long term HD will replace DVD but possibly not with the current situation ongoing.

HDDVD and BR sales are piss poor and will remain so .

The other HD driver is Sky HD.
But until the big 5 channels (or 1-4 at least) committ to a full time HD service then Sky HD wont drive flat panel sales either.

HD will win in the end ,its a question of how long and what needs to happen to the product to make it work.
As things stand at the moment there's no rush for anyone to go HD
Gilbertoo
07-05-2007
Originally Posted by yesparker:
“Thats the key .NEW tv ,you need a new tv to view HD.

With dvd you didn't.

I've yet to see a decent SD picture from any LCD or plasma ,and thats with dvd ,not just over compressed DSAT and DTT.

Of course in the long term HD will replace DVD but possibly not with the current situation ongoing.

HDDVD and BR sales are piss poor and will remain so .

The other HD driver is Sky HD.
But until the big 5 channels (or 1-4 at least) committ to a full time HD service then Sky HD wont drive flat panel sales either.

HD will win in the end ,its a question of how long and what needs to happen to the product to make it work.
As things stand at the moment there's no rush for anyone to go HD”

....so, going back to the original question, you do agree that HD will takeover from DVD...so forget all the peripheral stuff and simply say that you agree with me...
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