Like every other BB - there is a fundamental split in the BB HMs despite all the touchy-feely one big group stuff. That split is between to invent a couple of names - the 'core' and the 'peripherals'. The first group are tightly bonded with similar outlooks and experiences. The second group are those who are a little different and always seem to be a little less welded to the 'team'. So who fits which category in BB4

Core - Anoushka, Fed, Ray, Scott, Sissy, Tania

Peripherals - Jon, Justine, Nush, Cam, Steph, Gos

The producers did a good job in fielding 6 + 6 - the big surprise is that one of the core went in week one - and lets face it she only went because of the instant evictions. But that's why certain housemates were so shocked at her going - because it proved that they are VERY vulnerable. By all rights the wierd Trekkie should have gone - that he didn't caused HMs to realise that the public vote can't be predicted quite so easily as some may have thought...

I reckon the other 5 in the core may be safe for a while. They will not vote for each other while the peripherals definitely will!! The possible exception to that is Fed - whose pale imitation of Scott and Ray isn't too popular with the vital swing voters like Nush, Steph and Justine.

Of the peripherals - I just can't see Jon not being nominated - he's the easy way out for a lot of the nominators. Next time up I see Cam as the likely second choice - but Justine and Fed aren't doing as good a job as Gos, Steph and Nush at 'playing the game'.

Yeah, interesting that the "core" is probably more disliked as a group than the"periphery".

well one of the core gone now anyway would like to see a couple more of them fall

Excellent analysis, and dare I say it, possibly spot on.

Jon will be up for eviction every week until he goes - I honestly can't see him making it to the final week but I'll be pleasantly surprised if he does. He's most likely to be evicted in a one-to-one with either Fed or Scott, both of whom I think will make it to the final week.

I predict a little voting along gender lines - one week a boy will go, the next a girl until we're left with a final four of two guys, two girls.

Fed, Scott and take your pick between Nush, Sissy and Tania.

The "cores" will win out, I feel.

Interesting assessment - I'm surprised at the 'shock' of Anouska going. The first night and a monumental vote against her from within in the house would have built initial public vote momentum against her. Sure, Jon has been a little different but the public could clearly see through Anouska's basic flirtatious strategy.

A week is a long time in a close environment. That factor alone I'm sure made the 'shock' factor appear greater than if the vote had been declared on, say, Monday.

I don't think the 'core' as you call them are as tightly knit a group as you think.
Tania is at odds with Ray over his lazy atitude towards household chores.
Scott was distictly unimpressed with Sissy over her drunken antics last night, accusing her of playing into Big Brothers hands.
Ray, Scott and Sissy were all less than pleased with Fed over his failing the task.

I suspect the split, when it comes will suprise us all. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later.

Before Telewest went interactive (today, yay!), I found myself getting increasingly annoyed when the live feed was on what you've described as the core group.

Their conversations just seem to be repeats of the previous days, staying on "safe" subjects (clothes, makeup, clothes, football, clothes), whereas the peripherals seem to have much more varied and interesting discussions which, although still fairly safe, give a much better insight into each of their personalities.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the core swapping with the peripherals, giving us a new core of less stereotypical "beautiful" people who, IMO, are more easy for us mere mortals to identify with.

At leas lets hope so!

VoR

Good responses folks - I appreciate them. Of course the 'core' group will split in time but at the moment whatever their niggles they remain tighter-knit than with any of the peripherals. However you can be a peripheral and popular in the house - Gos is the obvious example this year and I don't see Steph getting too many nominations either.

Of course the first set of regular nominations could show I'm way off line - but for me that is a delight of BB!!!

BB winners in UK and worldwide tend to be 'dishy' males of the 'core' group. However, Ray and Scott - the obvious candidates - don't seem too inspiring and Kate from BB3 should give the girls hope.

An excellent thread/post and well thought out.I immediately looked at your two groups via the Stars[as I would]
What I would say is that within the core watch what might develop between Aries Fed and its "fate" sign dragon [Sissy].
Within the Peripherals, watch Justine's Scorpio and its fate sign Pig [Cameron and Gos]In the case of Jusine also being Rabbit she's also "fate" to Cameron's Pisces.Keep an eye on these two.
Your voting theory is particularly interesting and may well bear fruit.
Nice one, Crimpo.

Thanks for that - as to the wisdom of my analysis well we'll all know very soon...

I also don't think your core group is that well integrated yet- minaly as its not really a core but a collection of the most overtly dominant people- in fact I think that group will fracture quicker than what I think is becoming the tightest knit group- that of Cam, Jon and Steph.

Tensions are drawn between Fed and Scott and Sissy re: the failure of the Pedalo task and also between Tania and Ray. Ray's 'pranks' he thinks are endearing, whilst Tania finds them deeply irritating. Tania was also unimpressed with Anushka attempting to coerce her into slagging Jon off- she may splinter off with Justine.

Tania certainly didn't like Anu - and we can all guess why! The 'core' group don't have to act as an alliance - the point is that they have a commonality of interests, age, background, etc, which tends to mean they don't nominate each other early on. If you are outside that 'core' you are much more prone to be up for the vote early. Fed is the onlt one I can see being nominated before Week 4 - but my friend your analysis is every bit as likely to be right as mine

Its a sad fact but a true one- the core will get less nominations. BUT I would probably vote more readily for Federico than Cam, and the same for the rest of the group. Somehow the core is less endearing.

Saying that, I'm not sure I'd like to vote Tania off... things could get interesting with a bitch around. And I quite like Scott.

I agree with your groupings to a degree.

The six in your 'core' group are the typical extroverts in a social environment, particularly pubbing/clubbing environments, so I would group them together as a group in terms of personality type. The other 6 are less 'typical' people, less the sort of people that were in the 'cool' group at school.

HOWEVER... I have a feeling that your groupings don't necessarily mean that the people in the 'core' will get on better with each other and the 'periphery' people get on with each other. Opposites attract... Brian and Dean couldn't have been more different in Series 2 but they pretty much vowed in the diary room that they could never nominate each other.

I also disagree that the 'periphery' people will get the most nominations. I think Jon will get quite a few, but I think many of the other votes will go to members of the 'core' because they are louder, more obvious and essentially more irritating to live with - even to other members of the 'core'. I could be wrong!! But we'll see!

You may well be right Cwej but look who'll be there at the end of the show!! Point well made though.

The 'peripherals' never get on well together - they are all characters and often spin off against each other. The 'core' don't all like each other for sure...

If theres a split its between the boys and the girls. Theres no sexual chemistry. The girls are too 'girly' and follow each other around like sheep. Now, it seems the guys have all trooped off to bed at the same time. Whats goin on??

In watching each group after the task last night, I could see that there probabkly are certain groups within the house.

Scott seemed as if he wanted to be with the others (i.e Fed and Ray) and Tania with the winning group (i.e Sissy)

If you were to look at possible groupings or alliances within the house they would probably be:

Federico, Ray, Scott
Tania, Sissy and Nush

Jon seems completely in his own world, although Justine may gbe the HM he is closest to.

Not sure where Gos, Steph and Cameron would come into things.

Yes, Anouska's departure has exposed this all too clearly. Her eviction has had a far deeper effect on the group dynamic than one might have expected. The current boy/girl split is rather like what would've happened if Mel had been evicted first in BB1. Whatever you thought of Mel, she was excellent at maintaining sexual tension in the house. Anouska did actually come across as a younger, more likeable Mel mark 2 at times. Such a shame that she's gone.

Really good point - and tacky as it sounds, a show like BB does need a bit of sexual chemistry to pep things up, provoke rivalries/jealousies and so on. I know it could be argued it is too early, and stuck in the same house for 9 weeks, young, sexually-active people might start finding the diary room chair attractive. But there is nothing stand-out so far.

Apart from Anouska, of course, who did provoke some 'spice' and had a bit of a three-way chemistry thing going with Scott and Fed. In fact, I think she was getting a crush on Scott and there could have been 'developments' further down the line. But now, we'll never know ...

I agree about Anouska being the Mel of this group - and I actually think the dynamics in the house are most similar to BB1. It is EXACTLY what BB1 would have been like if Nick hadn't have been it and there'd been another 'blokey' figure in his place, at the moment.

The male-female divide hasn't been so strong since Series 1.

The series with the smallest gender divide was Series 2 - having 2 gay men in the house really helped that...

Yes, that is *exactly* what I've always thought about BB4! Going back to the roots of the show.

Anouska = Mel
Jon = Nick (in the sense that he is developing a following in his own right and is the prime mover of events)
Nush = Sada (yoga-loving flowerchild embodying aspects of "fashionable spirituality")
Tania = Sada (upper middle-class It girl)
Ray = Tom?
Scott = Craig?
Sissy = Caroline/Nichola?
Federico = Andrew
Gos = Darren ("jovial blandness")

The group dynamics in BB4 not only seem to be a partial replay of BB1 but are more subtle and involving than BB2. BB2 was a light-hearted Brian and Helen show with the more potentially interesting movers and shakers - Penny, Stuart and Narinder - getting booted out prematurely.

Just like to say this is a great thread. Discusses the relationships of the group without resorting to "vote x out" or whatever, and talk of BB4 being boring etc. Very intelligent and well thought out, hope it stays this way! Pity I don't have anything useful to add though!!

Are you mad, ben? In what sense is Tania upper middle class?!

Her mannerisms and background. I thought she initially came across as a bit of a Sloane. A sort of Trinny and Susannah type.

Agreed. One of my favourite threads on here all 11 days so far. Bravo all.

*has nothing more to add either*