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§ 'Strictly' 5 - Betting Thread §
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SilverBird
08-10-2007
It's curious how different they are with different bookies. Here's the latest from William Hill:

Kelly Brook 3/1

Gabby Logan 4/1

Penny Lancaster 5/1

Alesha Dixon 5/1

Gethin Jones 7/1

Dom Littlewood 9/1

Matt D' Angelo 12/1

John Barnes 14/1

Letitia Dean 16/1

Kenny Logan 16/1

Kate Garraway 20/1

Stephanie Beacham 25/1

Willie Thorne 33/1

Hardly surprising that Kelly, Penny and Alesha are all up there, surprised Gabby is above Alesha in the table though.
katie_p
08-10-2007
Blue Square has Stephanie Beacham at 125/1!
I'm tempted to put £10 on that just on the off-chance...
QUICKFOXTANGO
11-10-2007
Originally Posted by katie_p:
“ Blue Square has Stephanie Beacham at 125/1!
I'm tempted to put £10 on that just on the off-chance...”

There is absolutely no way that this lady will get very far in the competition so my honest advice is: keep your money in your purse!
She is, with some bookmakers, favourite to LEAVE the show on Saturday; i.e. she will be the first female to be outed.

In my estimation (and I had over £100 bets on Mark Ramps last year) Matt De Angelo will start shortening the odds from 12-1 down to under 4-1 and lower as the show progresses. For one thing, the public phone vote will ensure his survival owing to his massive girl following from EastEnders. Add to that the fact that he seems FAR superior to the series one heart-throb (Chris Parker) and I think a bet at 12-1 is a much more realistic punt.
Endemoniada
11-10-2007
Next elimination (Skybet):

Stephanie Beacham 11/10

Kate Garraway 2

Letitia Dean 3

Penny Lancaster 10

Alesha Dixon 28

Kelly Brook 33

Gabby Logan 33
Chilli Dragon
11-10-2007
Originally Posted by Endemoniada:
“Next elimination (Skybet):

Stephanie Beacham 11/10

Kate Garraway 2

Letitia Dean 3

Penny Lancaster 10

Alesha Dixon 28

Kelly Brook 33

Gabby Logan 33
”

Wow, they really are under estimating how unpopualr Kelly and Gabby are (for being "good")...still I do think either Stephanie or Kate may go...Kate is more likely if she is injured.
Pingman
11-10-2007
Originally Posted by Chilli Dragon:
“Wow, they really are under estimating how unpopualr Kelly and Gabby are (for being "good")...still I do think either Stephanie or Kate may go...Kate is more likely if she is injured.”

I would have been tempted if the judges had no say, but since they would pick the weaker contestant, they will be in for a while yet.


I'm surprised JB is 14/1, his odds have gone the wrong way, he was 9/2 at one point!

Gethin will be like another Will Thorp I feel. So no point putting any ££ on him.

I worked out if you put the right money on Gabby, Kelly, Alesha and Gethin at the beginning of the series with Will Hills, there was no way you could lose!
Quizmike
11-10-2007
Originally Posted by Pingman:
“I worked out if you put the right money on Gabby, Kelly, Alesha and Gethin at the beginning of the series with Will Hills, there was no way you could lose! ”

Unless Penny wins
Pingman
11-10-2007
Originally Posted by Quizmike:
“Unless Penny wins ”

Tbh I couldn't remember if the 4th one was Gethin or Penny, but I remember that it was 4 near the top of the list, and Penny was 14/1 at the time.

You had to put different amounts of £££ on each one, but it could be done so I think if you put around £100 on, your return would be about £20 (+ the £100), obviously increasing the more you bet.
Endemoniada
13-10-2007
Latest from Ladbrokes - 2nd elimination.....

Stephanie Beacham 5/4

Kate Garraway 2/1

Letitia Dean 3/1

Penny Lancaster 10/1

Alesha Dixon 25/1

Gabby Logan 25/1

Kelly Brook 25/1

Letitia shorter than I expected.
GlenP
13-10-2007
Knowing Darren & Lilia's teaching methods, I'd be prepared to put money on Letitia & Domonoc
Endemoniada
17-10-2007
3rd elimination betting (William Hill)

Willie Thorne 9/4

Kenny Logan 5/2

Letitia Dean 7/2

Kate Garraway 4/1

Dom Littlewood 10/1

John Barnes 14/1

Matt D' Angelo 20/1

Gethin Jones 20/1

Gabby Logan 33/1

Kelly Brook 40/1

Alesha Dixon 40/1

Penny Lancaster 50/1


'Fab Four' females noticeably long.
Lovely Liz
17-10-2007
Anyone know the odds to win?

I like to place my bet in week 3.

Usually I put two bets on to win.

Last year was undecided and waited too long ( and then fatally changed my mind!)

If I had gone with my gut (and Mark) in week 3, I would be several hundred quid richer
Endemoniada
17-10-2007
Originally Posted by Lovely Liz:
“Anyone know the odds to win?”

Penny Lancaster 11/4

Kelly Brook 3/1

Alesha Dixon 3/1

Gabby Logan 9/2

Matt D' Angelo 10/1

Gethin Jones 10/1

John Barnes 14/1

Dom Littlewood 16/1

Kate Garraway 25/1

Letitia Dean 33/1

Kenny Logan 50/1

Willie Thorne 100/1

(William Hill)


FFFs not particularly good value IMO.
swnymor1963
17-10-2007
If John Barnes was 2 stone lighter it would be worth a punt at 14/1.............Dominic Littlewood looks good at 16/1 as well....Cheeky Chappy with a great teacher: he could win both the Judges and the audience over. The guys are really going to have to improve though as the top 4 girls are premier league at the moment.....But time will tell.
Jocko Homo
17-10-2007
It's a bit strange that Penny has shorter odds than Alesha and especially Kelly. Wonder how they figured that one out?
Stella Street
17-10-2007
Originally Posted by Endemoniada:
“Matt D' Angelo 10/1

Gethin Jones 10/1

John Barnes 14/1
”

If I was to place a bet it would be on these middle 3. They've all got good fanbase to take them quite far in the competition, and stay in long enough to improve and prove strong competiton for the girls.
Laura.C
17-10-2007
i think matt and gethin will be the most competition for the girls
beanbean
17-10-2007
yep i can definately see either Gethin or Matt reaching the final 3. I guess it depends who makes the most progress.
I think there will be one male and one female in the final 2 this year.
Stella Street
17-10-2007
Originally Posted by lauraa:
“i think matt and gethin will be the most competition for the girls”

Going from rehearsal footage Gethin and Matt aren't as confident about their dancing as John is. That will show on the dancefloor. I think that's what got John the highest marks on the first week.
If Matt and Geth get that sorted that will increase their chances, other wise I'd say they were all about equal
swnymor1963
17-10-2007
Originally Posted by Stella Street:
“Going from rehearsal footage Gethin and Matt aren't as confident about their dancing as John is. That will show on the dancefloor. I think that's what got John the highest marks on the first week.
If Matt and Geth get that sorted that will increase their chances, other wise I'd say they were all about equal”

I just have this feeling that Matt or Gethin aren`t really up for it.....by that I mean the training and commitment required to compete.....I hope I`am wrong because as much as I love the girls I would still like to see the guys progress and really improve.
NeverInDoubt
17-10-2007
Put your mortgage on Alesha Dixon.
Stella Street
17-10-2007
Originally Posted by swnymor1963:
“I just have this feeling that Matt or Gethin aren`t really up for it.....by that I mean the training and commitment required to compete.....I hope I`am wrong because as much as I love the girls I would still like to see the guys progress and really improve.”

In rehearsals they look a bit unsure of what they are doing. Geth's filming BP at the same time, I think Matt is too, that might make a difference. I'm hoping Gethin can do a good tango this week.
I agree I'd like to see some of the guys progress. I'm hoping it won't be just about the girls, it makes a better competition if there's a mix.
jtnorth
18-10-2007
Originally Posted by swnymor1963:
“I just have this feeling that Matt or Gethin aren`t really up for it.....by that I mean the training and commitment required to compete.....I hope I`am wrong because as much as I love the girls I would still like to see the guys progress and really improve.”

Swnymor - I would have said that last week, but this week both Gethin and Matt have been showing a lot of stress and frustration, going on the films on ITT, and I think the commitment is there. I think there will be one bloke in the final, but it's way too soon to say who.
Endemoniada
18-10-2007
Originally Posted by Jocko Homo:
“It's a bit strange that Penny has shorter odds than Alesha and especially Kelly.”

That's a matter of opinion ....but bear in mind that there is variation between bookmakers.

If you look at a selection of the main ones..

The trio of Alesha, Kelly and Penny each have an implied 'probability' of victory in the 15%-20% bracket. Very little between them.

Gabby is rated a little lower at roughly 10%-15%.

Everyone else is below the 10% mark.

One of the FFFs winning is approximately a 70% chance.
rumour
18-10-2007
Originally Posted by SilverBird:
“It's curious how different they are with different bookies.”

No kidding, it certainly pays to shop around if you are having a bet. I've said on another thread I can't see beyond the top 3 in the betting this year but have to concede the "journey" types are at tempting prices with some of the bookies now http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...ing/win-market
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