Week 3 seems the right time. Men are less used to being ogled as sex objects, and in previous series they were all at sea in the first round.

Matt Dawson in his infamous pink shirt scored 19 in first-round cha-cha-cha, then in the second round showed his true potential with a 30-point tango.

Darren Gough scored an identical 19 from first-round cha-cha, followed by a 30-point quickstep in the second. From this I infer, that if a male dancer continued to be rubbish in his second try then he would be rubbish always.

By sharp contrast the women always came out roaring. Zoe Ball scored a staggering 35 in first-round waltz, from which high point there was scarecely room for further progress. Emma Brunton came out with a first-round 33-point quickstep and basically retained the same score level to the end. This year Kelly came out with 33 -- would round one be her high water mark?

Zoe was regarded by many as the best natural dancer ever seen in SCD, yet she was voted third to two men. Emma was also voted third to two men. One night Emma danced the waltz and paso doble, scoring an outstanding 74, clear of Luisa on 69, yet phone votes placed Emma among the bottom two, almost expelling her. Craig was despondent, and Bruno on ITT with arms geticulating pronounced the Emma vote as "a nonsense".

If such history hints at the underlying reality that phone voters are mostly female, and that women do not vote for women, then the most promising male dancer emerging from the third round would appear the value bet, at 10/1 upwards - for now.

Brucie and Tessa get paid, judges get paid, celebrities get paid, pro dancers get paid, Claudia gets paid. Everybody makes good money out of SCD, so maybe a nice little earner for viewers too.

Good luck to all.

Kenny now slight favourite to go tonight with most....

Kenny Logan 15/8

Willie Thorne 5/2

Kate Garraway 10/3

Letitia Dean 8/1

Dominic Littlewood 14/1

Gethin Jones 20/1

John Barnes 20/1

Matt D'Angelo 20/1

Gabby Logan 33/1

Alesha Dixon 66/1

Kelly Brook 66/1

Penny Lancaster 66/1

(Ladbrokes)

This week Willie went to Scotland to do his snooker commentating day job. Erin flew up there to somehow fit in a few hours practice in the morning, 53-year-old Willie ending up with several 18-hour days.

In their round one waltz Willie leaned backward and avoided disaster. This week in practice they were spotted by Len Goodman, with Willie curving his back into an "S" to propel the tango forward. No doubt Arlene would say Willie leaned over Erin like she was a snooker table. Their macho staccato tango looked more like a legato foxtrot in a retirement home.

First Brian, then Stephanie, with neither showed much stomach for a fight. It was arguable if both had dropped freudian hints here and there to their supporters that they wanted out. It is not ageist discrimination -- 60-year-old Arlene on the floor would have fought like a lioness, giving ground to no-one, and would have been supported fanatically. If Willie does drop a quiet hint tonight, his snooker fans will twig and put him out of his misery.

Ola's foot was injured this week resulting in 2(?) days practice time lost. Lying on the floor Ola said through tears of pain that she would dance on Saturday on crutches if need be. If Kate got a sympathy vote then Ola deserves it threefold. Willie beat Kenny on judges marks for the waltz, 24 to 21. No doubt Kenny will do an ungainly tango, but to call Willie's dance tonight a tango may well infringe the Trade Description Act.

Kate's phone vote is the great unknown. Those who sympathetically voted her in last week may feel guilty and to a woman do the opposite to compensate. Kate's tango might yet keep her out of the bottom two.

On ITT last night Tess said Willie's time is up. Tess knows everything that goes on in SCD, her considered opinion is good enough for me.

Not sure if I resent that or not!

It was not the intention to suggest that Kate voters last week were predominantly female. It is generally accepted that phone voters in ANY week are predominantly female.

If anyone has informative stats these would be interesting, and if the assumption is unfounded then my apologies.

Penny on the drift following Saturday....

Alesha Dixon & Matthew Cutler 11/4

Kelly Brook & Brendan Cole 7/2

Gabby Logan & James Jordan 9/2

Matt Di Angelo & Flavia Cacace 5/1

Gethin Jones & Camilla Dallerup 8/1

Penny Lancaster-Stewart & Ian Waite 8/1

John Barnes & Nicole Cutler 10/1

Letitia Dean & Darren Bennet 20/1

Dominic Littlewood & Lilia Kopylova 25/1

Kenny Logan & Ola Jordan 66/1

Kate Garraway & Anton Du Beke 100/1

(Stan James)

4th elimination latest (Ladbrokes).....

Kate Garraway 2/1

Kenny Logan 3/1

Letitia Dean 4/1

John Barnes 5/1

Dominic Littlewood 10/1

Penny Lancaster 16/1

Gethin Jones 20/1

Matt D’Angelo 20/1

Gabby Logan 33/1

Alesha Dixon 50/1

Kelly Brook 50/1

Oh my, 33-1
Did anyone place a bet?

Kenny Logan 5/2
Kate Garraway 5/2
Dom Littlewood 4/1
John Barnes 6/1
Letitia Dean 7/1
Gethin Jones 10/1
Penny Lancaster 12/1
Matt D' Angelo 20/1
Kelly Brook 50/1
Alesha Dixon 50/1

Alesha Dixon 7/4
Kelly Brook 9/4
Matt D' Angelo 3/1
Penny Lancaster 8/1
Gethin Jones 12/1
Letitia Dean 16/1
John Barnes 20/1
Dom Littlewood 33/1
Kenny Logan 66/1
Kate Garraway 66/1

Kate will be safe again this week after all the exposure. Also think Penny will survive on way or the other as well.

I think Dom's time has come!

To win still fancy Alesha...Matt's was just a flash in the pan dance.

Gabby was available between 20/1 and 40/1 for eviction last Saturday. The bookies cleaned up.

After that result I don't think I would bother trying to predict any more votes.

I think I spy a chance to combine watching with winning some cash this week.

As both Kenny and Kate are generally 2-1 to be eliminated tomorrow, backing both of them could prove profitable - the only caveat is that one of them must be in the bottom two. It looks like a risk worth taking to me.

I think Kate's time has come this week!

Alesha Dixon 10/11
Matt D'Angelo 9/2
Kelly Brook 9/2
Gethin Jones 5/1
John Barnes 20/1
Letitia Dean 20/1
Kate Garraway 50/1
Kenny Logan 50/1

Kate Garraway 15/8
Kenny Logan 5/2
John Barnes 4/1
Letitia Dean 9/2
Matt D'Angelo 14/1
Gethin Jones 14/1
Kelly Brook 20/1
Alesha Dixon 50/1

Not sure what Penny's eviction odds were last week but Kate dances onto another week.

Looking at the implied probabilities, Alesha really has stormed into strong favourite territory.

Alesha is over 40%; Kelly, Gethin & Matt at approximately 15% each; all the rest < 5%.

Anyone know the latest odds.

Think I need to put some money on Gethin!

He's joint 2nd favourite with Ladbrokes....

Alesha Dixon 10/11

Gethin Jones 5/1

Kelly Brook 5/1

Matt D'Angelo 5/1

Letitia Dean 14/1

John Barnes 16/1

Kate Garraway 33/1

Kenny Logan 40/1

Interesting that Kate is not the outsider.

5/1 isnt bad odds - should have backed him earlier though.

What about eviction odds this week?

Kate Garraway 9/4

Kenny Logan 5/2

John Barnes 7/2

Letitia Dean 5/1

Matt D'Angelo 11/1

Gethin Jones 14/1

Kelly Brook 14/1

Alesha Dixon 50/1

Punters' view seems to be nobody is safe except Alesha.

Hmm..I've correctly predicted the eviction most weeks (although not Gabby) but I wouldn't like to place a bet this week.

Kate, Kenny and John are all doing dances which don't suit them but which should have good entertainment value for the audience.

Gethin is doing a dance which always gets low marks but suspect he has a good audience vote.

Letitia and Matt - both in bottom two previously although Matt should get a bounce back in the vote this week (I hope).

Agree Alesha should be safe, although not sure about Kelly.

A bit of a 'one-horse race' now in the betting market...

Alesha Dixon 2/5

Matt D' Angelo 5/1

Gethin Jones 7/1

Kelly Brook 7/1

Letitia Dean 20/1

Kenny Logan 50/1

(William Hill)