Originally Posted by Tilly W:
“How can you make judgements when they havent even danced, its daft really. why not save it til the first week? your just going on age and what you may think.”
I don't think it is daft. Whilst how the celeb performs on the night is certainly a factor, it is obvious that popularity of both celeb and professional are equally as important. Perhaps more so in the earlier weeks when total votes cast are relatively small. Taking last year for example, I think over 2 millions votes were cast in week 11 (semi-finals) and over 1 million in the quarter-final (week 10). Extrapolating this data, I doubt there wass more than 150,000 votes cast in the first week which is not alot of votes given viewing figures of over 9 million in the first week last year (and bearing in mind there might be some multiple voters).
I would argue that the three most popular professionals, Karen, Brendan and Lilia would be voted through even if partnered dancing with an over-sized dead halibut. O.K. I'm exagerating but you know what I mean.
I reckon Brian, Dominic and Kelly will easily survive the first week irrespective of how the celebs perform primarily because of the existing large fanbase for their respective professional partners.
Unless Willie puts in a very good performance I expect him to leave in the first week. I don't believe either he or Erin have a large enough fanbase to offset a poor performance on the night.