I think all the sambas are likely to struggle and get low scores, except probably Gabby, and I think the American Smooth is more of a vote winning dance - I think it is easier to make it not embarrassing. If Kate is in the last 2, she's gone, but the voters know that so it's more motivation for them to vote. Anyone who got Anton's free dancing CD in one of the Sunday papers will be voting - I saw my aunt's copy and he is completly, utterly adorable in it. Kate will have to dance on her own for the samba and if she's bad people may think, OK let's put her out of her misery, but my bet is she'll stay in one more week. So that's a bottom 2 from Kenny, Penny or Gethin. Penny v either of them, they'll save Penny. Kenny v Gethin, I think they'd save Gethin but you never know judges' logic: Kenny is a rugby player and Darren did well, it's tough for sports people, etc. I hate thinking it will be one of those 2 - I've depressed myself now!
But you've got to add in - who is dancing at the beginning and may be missed altogether by a lot of voters, who is going to cry, who is going have a row with their partner, etc, (and actually who is going to dance well!). If the stories of fights with Letitia and Darren are backed up by the training videos, that will hurt them a lot.