Originally Posted by soulmate61:
“Late Romantic, thanks indeed, very well done.
Hardly any fluctuations except for a dip to 33% in week 5. That was the week following Kelly's unforgettable American Smooth, and to a lesser extent Matt Di Angelo's first high mark of 36 for his AS. Possibly these two events siphoned off a few percentage points from Alesha. The following week came Kelly's Girlpower paso disaster, so presumably Alesha waverers went back to home base. Week 5 poll also followed the eviction of Gabby. If Gabby supporters switched anywhere, they did not go to boost Alesha's 33%.
The remarkable stability of Alesha's support at 40% over all of ten weeks looks unlikely to be a blip. No matter which of 10 celebs was evicted, his or her fanbase appeared NOT to switch to Alesha.
In the early weeks Alesha's rock-hard 40% support completely dwarfed every other celeb. If this stable 40% trend of ten weeks were to continue for another two weeks, then the reality would be that the other finalist with 60% will tower over Alesha's 40%.
IF this trend continues.
IF the DS poll were any guide to 12 million BBC voters.”
Originally Posted by XXBarbXX:
“These stats are very interesting. I didn't vote at all last week as I was feeling very 'flat' after K&Bs departure...but I will vote this week, not sure whether it'll be Matt or Gethin as Matt was my 2nd fav but Gethin is improving all the time. Its unlikely to be Alesha or Letisha as neither inspire me much.......will be intriguing to see if you statistic juggling proves to be accurate”
XXBarbXX,
Thank you for your interest, now for the final chapter in the story of Alesha's SCD5 journey. As I previously posted, the interesting trend was Alesha's support staying constant around 40% for 11 weeks, picking up no new converts despite the successive departures of 11 opponents. Had this trend held for just one more week and had Gethin made the Final, then the projected support in the Final could have been 45% to 55% in favour of Gethin, or maybe 48% to 52%, based on the long-established stability of Alesha's support.
The closing poll figures for Week 11 were slightly misleading, as that poll closed on Sunday night after Gethin's exit was universally known in DS forum, with stragglers still voting but not for Gethin. For most of that week Alesha and Gethin were level pegging on 43%, then in the 36 hours leading up to the semi-final Alesha put on a sprint, surging to 45% over Gethins's 40%, not sure if that was something of a blip.
This is how the story ends. After the departure of Gethin opposition to Alesha has collapsed. In Week 12 Alesha the previous minority candidate on 40% instantly picked up 30% new support and has held it rock steady ever since, as of tonight leading with 73% to 27%, with bookies betting 2/5 Alesha, 5/2 Matt.
SCD5 judges marks:
Alesha Gethin Matt
Week11: ------------- 76 ----- 70 ----- 75
Week10: ------------- 74 ----- 75 ----- 55
Week 9 : ------------- 74 ----- 74 ----- 65
Week 8 : ------------- 39 ----- 34 ----- 38
Week 7 : ------------- 38 ----- 31 ----- 34
Week 6 : ------------- 35 ----- 36 ----- 29
Week 5 : ------------- 36 ----- 31 ----- 31
Week 4 : ------------- 33 ----- 26 ----- 36
Week 3 : ------------- 36 ----- 29 ----- 30
Weeks 1&2 : -------- 31------ 22 ----- 23
AVERAGE : -------- 36 ---- 33 ---- 32
DS Favourite Poll -
Alesha – Gethin - Matt – Others
Week12: 707 votes : 73 % ------------ 27 % ----- 0 %
Week11: 749 votes : 46 % -- 38 % -- 16 % ----- 0 %
Week10: 688 votes : 37 % -- 37 % -- 19 % ----- 7 %
Week 9 : 601 votes : 36 % -- 14 % -- 21 % --- 29 %
Week 8 : 647 votes : 41 % -- 17 % -- 12 % --- 30 %
Week 7 : 703 votes : 37 % -- 20 % ---- 9 % --- 34 %
Week 6 : 686 votes : 40 % ---- 9 % -- 13 % --- 38 %
Week 5 : 571 votes : 33 % ---- 6 % -- 21 % --- 40 %
Week 4 : 476 votes : 42 % ---- 7 % --- 9 % --- 42 %
Week 3 : 629 votes : 40 % ---- 8 % --- 4 % --- 48 % (no polls in wks 1-2)
... 
... But atleast the final 3 are good 
...
