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How representative do our polls tend to be? |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 23,238
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How representative do our polls tend to be?
I know that there will be a pecentage of votes that depend on the performances on the night (how much I have no idea), but I was wondering how accurately the polls reflect the voting at the end of the week.
For instance how seriously should I take the poll showing Niki most likely to go? |
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#2 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Scotland
Posts: 16,054
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Quote:
I know that there will be a pecentage of votes that depend on the performances on the night (how much I have no idea), but I was wondering how accurately the polls reflect the voting at the end of the week.
For instance how seriously should I take the poll showing Niki most likely to go? For example, Eton Road consistently done well in the polls last year, yet finished 5th overall in the competition. |
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#3 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: In the Wind
Posts: 28,373
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Quote:
I know that there will be a pecentage of votes that depend on the performances on the night (how much I have no idea), but I was wondering how accurately the polls reflect the voting at the end of the week.
For instance how seriously should I take the poll showing Niki most likely to go? |
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#4 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Scotland
Posts: 16,054
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:yawn: Statistically, of course, :yawn: amongst other things, the sample size is a key determinator in terms of how representative a poll is, and as far as this goes, our polls do well.
However, the demographic that the polls represent may be skewed in a number of areas such as age, social class, gender, geographical location (if some posters on here are to be believed) etc. *ducks* |
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#5 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 19,908
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This year it has been spot on. The only one that has been.
I also remember back in Series 1 when Tabby was topping all the polls other than this one where Steve and G4 were the most popular. |
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#6 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 23,238
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I think that Ray inceased his popularity duing the series. He was in the bottom two early on.
I know about the sample size thingy. On the other hand we are all people who are inteested enough to comment on here. There is probable a corelation between posting on here and voting. Anyway I was more trying to decide how representative we have been in the past, regardless of how many of us there are. |
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#7 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Kandy Kitchen
Posts: 37,694
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Forums Faves...
Rowetta.... Came 4th Tabby.... Came 3rd Brenda.... Came 4th Eton Rd.... Came 5th |
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#8 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: In the Wind
Posts: 28,373
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Quote:
Forums Faves...
Rowetta.... Came 4th Tabby.... Came 3rd Brenda.... Came 4th Eton Rd.... Came 5th
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#9 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 19,908
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Rowetta and Tabby weren't forum favourites on here; Steve topped the poll.
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#10 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Kandy Kitchen
Posts: 37,694
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they were... they always win things on here eg favourite act from series 1 etc etc
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