Now we are getting close to the end, everyone should at last be thinking tactically. Ray has an opportunity to drop one of his closest rivals. Lisa is not one of those as she has no chance of winning. Everyone else will nominate her next week and the public will then vote her out (as with every late entrant to BB in the past). She may even walk, as it's obvious no-one has any time for her. To nominate Lisa this week would waste this valuable opportunity.

I think therefore that Ray should make peace with them for doing so, but show his hand and nominate Cam Scott and Nush. One will go, and his chances of winning will be boosted.

Cam, Steph and Scott and make it a double eviction week

If Nush is evicted, Cameron will very likely win, as Scott will then revert to Mr. Dull, and Ray will have little chance of catching the Stout, especially as Cam's power base (Steph) will still be in place, giving him the advantage.
Nush is more likely to suck votes away from Ray's 2 male rivals, in my view.

If Steph is evicted, Cameron's power base will be no more, and he will be increasingly isolated, in a Final Four of Scott, Ray, Nush, and Cam, Cameron will be the "odd-man-(st)out".

If Ray were tactical, he would nominate:
Cameron
Scott
Steph

If Ray wants to make his final weeks of BB pleasant:
Lisa
Cameron
Steph

We could see in week 8 a repeat of BB2:

2001 Week 8:
Dean & Elizabeth versus Paul & Helen
Brian has deciding vote

2002 Week 8:
Cameron & Steph versus Scott & Nush
Ray has deciding vote

Its 2003

But you are right.

The danger for Ray is that he has no allies apart from Scott, and far from having the deciding vote, he will certainly be up for the chop in the last eviction. This would not be a problem if Lisa is aganinst him. It may not even come down to a deciding vote, as it could be another HoH type nomination.

Cameron and Steph have to be nominated as Ray must perceive that Cam has won a vote against Fed & Jon, likewise Steph who beat Nush and Tania.

His third nomination is the most difficult. The danger of selecting Nush is that she is evicted, whilst he may not want to nominate Scott in order to preserve their alliance.

I suspect he will pick Cam, Steph & Lisa, but should go for Scott instead of Lisa.

Without doubt the smartest move is to break the Cam-Steph axis by picking Scott or Nush instead of Lisa as his third choice.

He knows Lisa cannot win. He can secure her support by keeping her in. After being up twice in the last two weeks he has to find an ally, of sorts, and he knows he cannot rely on anyone else in there as it stands.

If he puts Lisa up this week he risks his own nomination more than ever next week.

Ray`s dilemma is that he has all but committed himself to selecting Lisa in front of the others, and he does not want to make himself look a complete Cameron by being hypocritical, and changing his mind.

As much as I would love to see Lisa go this week .
If I were Ray I would go for
Cam Scott and Nush. Get rid of the opposition
Lisa will go soon enough.

If playing tactically I wonder if any HMs realise that leaving Lisa in the house only improves their own chances of actually winning the 70k. I cannot see the Great British Public voting FOR someone who has been there barely a month.

I suppose the only problem with that idea is she will then be in the house after two more of the 'original' HMs have got the boot and they would be all pig sick if they were one of those two.

Lisa will be soooo grateful if he doesn't nominate her. She'll probably make it unnecessary for him to take the duvet to the toilet again!

If Lisa is nominated with 2 others and she walked before evicition night, would Ray have to nominate someone else or not

If Ray percieves lisa as affecting the mood of the housemates, i'm sure he'll nominate her this week. All the tactical comments made here are very true, and would be wise gameplay, but i think they will always tend to vote towards keeping who they get on with in and keeping a happy house.

On the other hand, Ray may not wish to upset lisa, who i would think could give Ray an uncomfortable time if he nominates her, where as other housemates would I expect be more forgiving.

If I were Ray, I wouldn't nominate Lisa and gratefully accept the Bl*w J*b I'd earned. She can't talk with her mouth full and it doesn't matter what she looks like at waist height!

I agree. I do hope he is able to work that out. If Lisa is in the mix, she'll be voted out with possibly a record high percentage whoever she is up against. I hope Ray knows that and leaves her out of the 3. I'm not sure if he realises it would be OK to risk Scott with the other two though. Nush has survived two votes in a row, so he might think it'd be Cameron who'd be going if he includes her instead.

It would have been so much simpler with just 2 to nominate - Cameron and Steph.

The trouble for Ray is that everyone will know his nominations. The original hms will all consider him a traitor if he doesn't choose Lisa. He will therefore try to make the fewest enemies possible.

I predict he will nom Lisa Steph and Cam. Lisa will go. Steph and Cam will nominate him the week after, but with himself, Nush and Scott probably nominating Steph and Cam, he should be safe from the final eviction. Steph v Cam will probably mean Steph goes, and the final 4 will be Scott, Ray, Nush and Cam.

The risk in nominating Scott is large as both Cameron and Steph fans will find Scott the easy option to vote for. It would be better for Ray to put Nush in the mix but then doing that will alienate Scott who is his only true ally in the house. Ray does not want to appear as if he is playing the game tactically either. This is one of the faults he has moaned about Lisa doing and he resents her for it. Cant see Ray picking anybody but Cameron, Steph and Lisa.

I agree that's exactly what's going to happen. Depressingly predictable isn't is?:yawn:

Some very very astute observations here. Facinating, so thank you.

All the signs are that Ray is agonising over this, but he doesn't know what we know. Of those left, the only 2 whose popularity has not been tested are Lisa and Scott. There would be some logic in nominating both of them, but I can't see him sparing both Steph and Cam.

Scott was very clever when telling Ray he was 'sound when sober' the other night. He is daring Ray to prove otherwise. Lisa was very clever in daring him to cross her. I wonder very much whether he'll put Nush into the mix with Steph and Cam, assuming that one of the 2 girls will go (Steph?) and then assume that they can collectively get rid of Lisa before the last 4.

I hate this idea - BB has thought it up mainly to try to get more money by having 3 nominees up - boring - and because it caused problems for Les Dennis - but there is no one with his wimpish psychology in the BB house so it won't work.

Because Ray has been placed in a special position he should use special criteria for nominating:

1. Cameron, because Cameron was allowed 2 weeks off being nominated while being allowed to nominate himself - plus a free trip to Africa. It's only fair Cameron should be placed under the same pressure as his housemates and not given a free trip to the £70K

2. Lisa, because as a late entry Lisa has the fewest chances to face eviction versus anyone else who came into the house. She also has an unfair advantage in alone knowing how everyone else voted before she came in and has to do very little to get to the end and the £70K.

3. Scott, because Scott has never faced eviction and it's unfair to pick someone else ahead of him. Ray can figure that since Scott is the most popular in the house he probably is popular outside and won't be evicted and so all is well there.

Out of this lot, Lisa would go out big time.

I believe he has made up his mind since Sunday not to nominate Lisa. All of this "crying" and hand-wringing is just posturing. It's a way of saying sorry to the HM's he is going to nominate. Everyone else has done the same posturing during the nomination process - he has to do more because his nominations will be so public.

He's an idiot, but he's no fool!

I can't believe you lot haven't dug me up for being so rude and un-PC! I feel like Fed when he tried to start an argument. Where's Gazza71 and Papyrus? I read a full blown shouting match on another thread about spelling and grammar. Why won't someone rise to my bait?

The worst trio he could pick are Scott, Lisa and Nush, as it will resolve nothing.

Right now, i'd be happy for either Steph or Cam to go, they are acting like smug married without the, errrr, marriage. Their condescending nature is incredibly arrogant. No wonder she's getting divorced and he's a virgin. ******* in every sense bar one

I'd like it to be

Lisa
Nush
Scott

Lisa to go.

Then next week Ray to go.

Won't happen but ya know.

Yes, if he's thinking tactically, IMO that's what he would do.

If he doesn't pick lisa this week, then there is a very good chance he will be up next week, and that would probably be against Lisa, and he will not know at the moment if she is popular or not, so will not take that chance.

He might feel his best chance is to ally himself to the two HMs he doesn't nominate ie Scott and Nush, and hope that cam and steph are nominated next week.

Ray's best chance of getting less than three votes is to not select Lisa. Then the most votes he will get would be the two who were up for eviction but survived. This may be enough to keep him safe. (Given that Cam/Steph/Nush may attact three votes, with Lisa getting four.)

if she remains, Nush is more likely to nominate Ray over Cam, so Ray would have 3 votes and be up for the chop (assuming a normal eviction next week).

You havn't been reading the Haiku thread. Have you.