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Will Blu Ray Supplant DVD? |
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#1 |
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Will Blu Ray Supplant DVD?
What are the long term prospects for Blu Ray eventually replacing DVD itself? It's far too early to even guess, but here's an interesting piece from Video Business. Apparently, HD sales are doing better than DVD did at the same stage in its development.
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#2 |
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Well I think the direct competition between the two formats really have slashed the price of hardware making HD more palatable a lot faster than DVD did not to mention the market already understanding what the optical format is all about and with no issues about a mainstream non-recordable format.
Much as I think Warner are b******s (while admiring their business sense) they did play the market very well, encourage hardware competition by being neutral and even leaning towards HD DVD initially which drove prices down and when Blu-ray had a healthy lead switch to that to bring about a single format as quickly as possible with no practical way for the BDA to regroup to a premium format pricing model. As for Blu-ray getting say the 51% of optical disk sales that is possible in a couple of years as DVD sales continue to fall and downloads for SD content undermine the DVD even further. I can not see a time when Blu-ray even comes close to the profitability of DVD or it's sheer volume unit sales wise but that's not an attack on the format it's the market it will operate in. |
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#3 |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
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Blu-Rays won't replace DVD's. I don't see the adult industry going for them because thats one area where you might not want to see everything in crystal clear displays, so they'll go 'VOD / burn to DVD' route.
I see DVD's having a future similar to CD's. They'll never vanish, they'll just become less used. You'll get 100 blank ones for £20 and use them to record stuff in pretty high definition in small doses. They'll be used as cd's are now. burn once and throw away rather than constantly scratching and replacing re-writable blu-rays... |
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#4 |
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This is why 'personally' I wanted to see HD-DVD win it because then in as little as just 2-3 years time they could have released everything as a dual-disk. (HD-DVD and normal DVD together). 1 format that would suit everyone.
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#5 |
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Quote:
Blu-Rays won't replace DVD's. I don't see the adult industry going for them because thats one area where you might not want to see everything in crystal clear displays, so they'll go 'VOD / burn to DVD' route.
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#6 |
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Actually a number of the companies who produce this sort of 'specialist' material have already started publishing HD material although I'm not sure which format. I've an idea it was BD. However, it's a myth that the adult industry has much influence in these things. I think its less than 1% of the total market. Not that I know much about this hrmph
![]() Plenty of HD spec content to be downloaded legit and otherwise in that genre and yes a few HD DVD and Blu-ray (plus wmv) titles out already. The adult DVD market survives because of the huge number of titles that are released off the back of dirt cheap production and replication, a 4 figure DVD production run can make a profit unlike Hollywood movies. I question the ability of adult material to make a significant mark on the HD optical format simply based on the higher production costs (HD authoring, replication and HD production) and if they cut corners then the punter might as well buy the cheaper DVD. The industry I suspect more so than the mainstream media have exploited the internet and will expand more into mobile viewing and IPTV. |
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#7 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Quote:
Actually a number of the companies who produce this sort of 'specialist' material have already started publishing HD material although I'm not sure which format. I've an idea it was BD. However, it's a myth that the adult industry has much influence in these things. I think its less than 1% of the total market. Not that I know much about this hrmph
![]() Only one porn label has released on Bluray. However I'm sure that will change. I dont think Bluray will wipe out dvd because apart from movies and the small selection of tv shows made on 35mm film everything else on dvd would gain very little from an HD release |
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#8 |
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In the US, there are lots of 60s and 70s shows that were shot on film that would benefit from an HD transfer. 80s and 90s shows would be more problematic since many were post produced on NTSC video.
It would be technically possible though, if the original film elements were preserved somewhere. New CGI technology might even permit the realistic "faking" of missing detail so an NTSC source could look like HD.There are plenty of movies worth getting on Blu Ray. Practically every movie ever made since the 1930s would benefit from an HD transfer. Anyone care to predict if or when some of the real biggies will get a Blu Ray release? ![]() Star Wars IV, V and VI Indiana Jones trilogy Back to the Future trilogy Alien and Aliens Lord of the Rings The Matrix The Mummy |
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#9 |
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Star Wars IV, V and VI... 2010
Indiana Jones trilogy... 2009 Back to the Future trilogy... 2009 Alien and Aliens... 2009 Lord of the Rings... 2009 The Matrix... 2008 The Mummy... 2009 Dates based on current and projected studio support and the delays by neutral studios due to the lack of 1.1 Blu-ray players. Of course The Mummy and The Matrix trilogy are already out on HD DVD (enjoy them with a cheap player ) and Indi was slated for a 2008 release by a Para CEO but that was before Warner stuck the knife in
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#10 |
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Stuff like all the Bonds, Star Wars, Indiana Jones will really kick start Blu-ray into the mainstream.
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#11 |
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Betamax was screwed in part because of Sony's prudish attitude to porn. Porn is what sells a new format, and porn *will* go HD. They are always looking for the new thing as porn consumers tend to get bored quite quickly. Additionally, porn has been troubled by piracy recently (previously it was water off a duck's back)...P2P (with the convenience of Hash Sites to avoid those nasty DRM'd files) and sites such pornotube have affected their bottom line.
The much bigger files sizes of HD will inhibit P2P for a while (possibly) as will the better DRM. If Sony think they have won the war and they ignore porn they are wrong. There is only one thing 14 year old lads want to see on their new HD player and it isn't Spiderman 3. |
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#12 |
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Quote:
Star Wars IV, V and VI... 2010
Indiana Jones trilogy... 2009 Back to the Future trilogy... 2009 Alien and Aliens... 2009 Lord of the Rings... 2009 The Matrix... 2008 The Mummy... 2009 Dates based on current and projected studio support and the delays by neutral studios due to the lack of 1.1 Blu-ray players. Of course The Mummy and The Matrix trilogy are already out on HD DVD (enjoy them with a cheap player ) and Indi was slated for a 2008 release by a Para CEO but that was before Warner stuck the knife in![]() Back to the Future took ages too. ![]() Indiana Jones may be more hopeful. I expect the fourth movie to stimulate an HD release of the originals. I hope the Matrix and Mummy, both titles that are already on HD-DVD, would come to Blu Ray this year. |
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#13 |
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You can perhaps understand why some studios would wish to keep certain titles off a format until they reach a certain market penetration but then again it's not as if the movie would not continue to sell over the years after it was released.
Good choice of movies though, there are 5 there that would be (at least for me) reasons to buy into a format
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#14 |
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Quote:
If Sony think they have won the war and they ignore porn they are wrong. There is only one thing 14 year old lads want to see on their new HD player and it isn't Spiderman 3. In the meanwhile one of the biggest porn studios, Digital Playground, recently announced it was dropping HD-DVD and going Blu-ray only. So yeah, porn has gone blu. |
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#15 |
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#16 |
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I hope you're wrong about Star Wars, but given how long they took to release them on DVD, I fear you may even be a tad optimistic.
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#17 |
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We'll be downloading films by the time SW is released. Georgie boy has said that there are no plans.
![]() There were no plans to release the original trilogy untouched either but he did and got around his earlier statements (not that they were legally binding or perhaps they were) by only having them as bonus features. The notion that GL wouldn't approve a release of a high priced Blu-ray boxset in a few years is just bizarre especially given the existing HD versions all over the net. |
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#18 |
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There were no plans to release the original trilogy untouched either but he did and got around his earlier statements (not that they were legally binding or perhaps they were) by only having them as bonus features.
The notion that GL wouldn't approve a release of a high priced Blu-ray boxset in a few years is just bizarre especially given the existing HD versions all over the net. |
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#19 |
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Star Wars or no Star Wars, Blu Ray needs another biggie to give it a push. Warner are prepping The Matrix I believe along with Batman Begins. Nice, but Lord Of The Rings would make an excellent showcase for the format. We can but hope.
Back on topic, I think Blu Ray's best chance of supplanting DVD would be when it goes recordable. That, of course, would need enough sufficient source material. Looks like we're a little while away from that in this country. Japan would be the best place to see what is to come. |
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#20 |
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As I understand it, the original versions that have been released aren't even anamorphic, let alone restored. The PQ is no better than the LD release.
Yep, GL may have listened to the fans but he made sure they only got what they asked for and then only if they bought the new versions, $$$$. |
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#21 |
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Back on topic, I think Blu Ray's best chance of supplanting DVD would be when it goes recordable. That, of course, would need enough sufficient source material. Looks like we're a little while away from that in this country. Japan would be the best place to see what is to come.
To be honest except for PC use I think the age of an optical based medium for home recording is coming to an end, forget the complexities of DRM and fair use for perfect digital copies the DVR is with us now and a price points a HD optical recorder couldn't match for a couple of years not even considering the cost of blank media. |
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#22 |
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I haven't "kept" a recording since getting Sky+ some years ago (now Freeview PVR).
Personally I've seen little point in archiving to DVD, if there was something that I really wanted to keep, it would probably be a film or series that I would purchase on DVD. I don't believe that recording to optical media is something that will ever become popular amongst the great unwashed. |
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#23 |
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Blu-ray "players" may outlive DVD "players", but I'm fairly sure backwards compatibility (and poss region code cracking) will ensure that both formats of disc will actually co-exist quite happily for many years. Nobody wants to have to replace their DVD collections; once consumers realise that they don't have to sell-up to buy into a new format, people will become used to casually buying DVDs because they are so cheap and spending a bit extra for trophy films on Blu-ray.
Nobody ever suggested that Superbit-DVDs would replace regular DVDs just because they had better PQ. Once Blu-ray has full studio support, you'll just need one machine that plays discs with 2 different levels of PQ. In my opinion, Blu-ray & DVD will live happily ever after together, until a new technology pushes them both over a cliff at the same time. |
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#24 |
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There are still a lot of people who think that Blu Ray isn't backwards compatible.
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#25 |
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I think your information is out of date. The porn story is over a year old now.
In the meanwhile one of the biggest porn studios, Digital Playground, recently announced it was dropping HD-DVD and going Blu-ray only. So yeah, porn has gone blu. |
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It would be technically possible though, if the original film elements were preserved somewhere. New CGI technology might even permit the realistic "faking" of missing detail so an NTSC source could look like HD.
) and Indi was slated for a 2008 release by a Para CEO but that was before Warner stuck the knife in