Or is that just my thinking? This could be the best year yet IMO.

Maria: It was obviously Connie from the start.
Joseph: Lee Mead had it in the bag from Day 1.

But this show is completely different. I have no idea who's going to leave or who's going to win.

I think Rachel, Fran, Keisha, Samantha and Amy all have a strong chance.

I'd also like to add that i really enjoyed last night's show. They were all fantastic and it was very enjoyable. The Oliver's were adorable aswell.

I agree, previously it's been relatively obvious whose going to win, or at least get very near the end...but with these lot you can't tell, and thats a good thing i feel!

More suspense!

Hmm - I think Samantha is going to be the "anointed one".

I got 14-1 on Samantha.

I shall be using my winnings to buy several tickets to see her perform in the show!

but I also got 8-1 on Jessie and hedged to break-even if Jodie gets it.

Once Rachel gets knocked out I will start counting my chickens.

Rachel is the obvious winner to me

Hi!
I agree about Connie and Lee but this time around I don't think there's an obvious winner just yet. Rachel IS good but I wonder if the voters might think she has an advantage as she seems to be more experienced - and so it might count against her? What do you think?
I quite liked Jessie and Jodie and Samantha - but may change my mind again next week!!!

Connie was only obvious if you ignored all the talk about wanting someone different. She was the safe, familiar choice. There were probably two or three other people who could have played different Maria's which would have fitted the job description better. One went on to play a more complex Maria proving the point. Different interpretations though are bound to put some people off so safety first dictates Connie winning. I wouldn't think of Connie as the best actress or singer either - she was reliable, good enough at everything and looked most like Julie.

Lee was obvious if you preferred him to Daniel and noted how inexperienced everyone else was. He didn't fit ALW's listed boyband requirements either though he was better in most departments and as good as everyone else in all.

This time its much more complex because no one fits the job description from ALW and there are even more distinct alternative versions of Nancy on offer - older buxom tart with a heart or young and vulnerable with several layers of armour for two. That doesn't mean ALW doesn't know who he wants though - he's just not telling us and he has the final deciding vote who reaches the last three. I suspect we will find out as we did with Lee with a really good song in the next few weeks followed by something that proves that person could perform the Nancy role. My money is on the young girl who he thinks is world class if she can act like Nancy and I suspect we won't be shown that yet.

Good post there. If either Samantha or Jessie can act, they will be in the final three, I am sure of it. The person who has the real power here is Cameron Mackintosh, and if you play it back his unassuming affirmation when ALW talked about "world class performer" tells me he saw someone he wanted for the role - and that someone was Jessie or Samantha. In my opinion, 60-70% likely Samantha.

Someone else has posted on here that Samantha has already played a similar role to Nancy, complete with Cockney accent, so that suggests she may not have a problem. Whereas Jessie has been rejected from drama school twice and from last night's evidence is less of a duck to water than Samantha.

Jodie - she fits a certain preconception but she does not have Jessie's star quality or Samantha's x-factor. As someone said, she's very engaging but a bit cabaret. I think she'd have a stronger chance if neither of the others could act; but it sounds like at least one of them can.

As for Rachel, she came across as a bit too professional. Her qualities were good but a bit stylised; and she lacks that something which Jessie and Samantha do not.

I have been agonising about whether to hedge my Jessie and Samantha bets with Rachel as well as with Jodie; but I am not going to. I am sure it will make uncomfortable viewing for a while, because Rachel is bound to go a decent way in the competition.

Those four are the bookies' favourites now, anyway.

I must admit there is something which strikes "Nancy" to me when I saw the performance last night from Rachel.

I'd be a bit worried with Samantha in the role at this stage - primarily because she doesn't come across like a West End type lead, but the voice suits Nancy I think.

Those aren't the only two who I have opinions on, obviously, but they came to mind for some reason then.

There's still much time for anyone to come through and win though. The original point is very true though, this time it seems much more open compared to the previous two. Probably not so much down to talent, but the different impressions people have of Nancy.

Great post!

So which one was world class ? I thought he had his eye , so to speak , on Cleopatra .

Sorry folks but, I think that Francesca is the "chosen one" this year. I knew that regardless of her performance the Lord was going to put her through. Anyone who missed as much of the sessions as she did and still was put through brought out the cynic in me. I think it was a close call tonight and from now on we'll see Francesca singing "easier songs partnered against one of the weaker contestants who will be singing songs that won't suit their voices!

I still wish I knew who was Bill Sikes. Or are they waiting till they have Nancy?

They're going to have to work really hard to turn public opinion round if they want Francesca to win - she doesn't seem that popular so far, whereas Lee always had a lot of fans and was never in the sing-off that I remember. I didn't watch Maria so I can't comment on that. To me, Francesca is the smoke-screen girl - she's taking the fall for nepotism, covering for other girls that have just as much experience and even some links to the rest of the team. Nah, I reckon she's nothing more than a distraction, rather than the chosen one. I would say that's Samantha, personally, although they'll have to work their arses off to get rid of Jodie.

He said it after he called the 3 youngest back to see if they were too young - but he didn't say which of the three it was.........

I think it may end up as a variation on Maria. Helena was too quirky to get the public vote. ended up being saved most weeks and couldn't beat someone who looked most rounded and familiar in the role in the final, despite her Caberet performance. Francesca is solid (though she has the problem staying in tune on that set that some people did last year) but seems to have been stuck with the pro label wheras every other pro has dodged it. She has a mountain to climb to win just like Helena. If she doesn't win ALW will be able to proclaim another discovery so I think it almost has to be someone else. He won't want another Lee like story either. Francesca is good enough to outsing/out act almost anyone in an elimination song though - as Helena was. I can see her staying a while to eliminate the ones he doesn't want?

Agreed all that. Whats going on with Sarah though? She can sing better than most and small will help in the tear jerking dept. She's in Belinda's position of sounding nice but there's this mystery of the Evening Standard selling job and a good performance on the market stall which suggests she could rough it up. Are they keeping rough Sarah back or keen to leave her sounding too nice?

I think it is pretty clear that Francesca isn't the chosen one. In fact, I am sure she'll be the be the new Daniel, someone who gets praised for being a professional at the beginning and then as the show progresses, the word "professional" suddenly becomes derogatory.

However, I agree about all the comments about there not being a clear winner. There are several likely candidates. Although similar, there are quite a few that are good, but vastly uninteresting. Which is surprising because out of Maria, Joseph, and Nancy, I would have thought stage presence was most important here.

I think actually we're just looking back in hindsight and saying that. In the the first week of Maria Melinda, Belinda and Leanne all gave stand out performances, Abi and Aoife also showed potential. And as for Joseph I think most people would say that actually Daniel gave the best performance in week one with Lee a close (but not that close) second- and I say that as someone who wanted Lee to win. It was actually from the second week onwards that Connie and Lee both became the clear favourites.

Yes - all we need now is for her to be given totally candy floss insipid drivelly pop songs, and then to be stupidly criticised by the panel for being too nice!!
*still annoyed*!!!

ALW has the deciding vote. IMO Rachel is his safe bet, he knows she can sing and perform, her nerves wont get the better of her. I will be amazed if she leaves before the final night.

My problem with Rachel is that, despite having watched both programmes I still can't remember what she looks like and what song she performed. For me she's just not memorable enough.

I agree there is no obvious winner this series so far. That said, I think the only reason Lee was so obvious last season was because ALW got rid of any opposition he might have had leaving a guy who actually looked like he might have been Joseph in an earlier life up against a short skinny scottish guy and a very tal skinny geordie who couldn't sing and had next to no public support.

Connie however did stand out from the start and whereas others went off she seemed to go from strength to strength (I'm sure more by design than accident!).

It was 4 actually but we know it wasn't one of them as she wasn't put through to the 12. On first watch i was convinced it was Jessie, on 2nd, Niamh and after last night's judges comments I now think it is is Samantha.

Personally, I think all three have talent

Did Samantha get called back? I didn't think she was one of that four. Oh well, I'll have to watch it again Any excuse. At the time I thought he was talking about Niamh (though I wanted it to be Jessie).