Right, well having idled away half an hour watching all the Oliver performances and with nothing better to do, I'll join in the over-analyses:
Definitely Oliver:
Chester - I agree this kid has star quality in spades: innocent yet charismatic. He also has great pitch, a lovely face (befitting Oliver with his upper class origins) and moves confidently. He is without doubt the strongest contender - as witnessed the week they did Pie Jesu, a tough song by anyone's standards and one I think few of those boys could have pulled off. You can count on Chester in any of the group numbers to deliver his line without faltering whereas some of the others have me wincing.
Maybe Oliver
Lawrence - I hadn't even noticed him until this week to be honest, but after a great turn in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang which made me rewatch him more closely in the other numbers, he's really
really good. He'd be a reliable choice. However, his low-visibility and the fact that many people have only just noticed him could be a problem in itself. Will he draw an audience like Chester? Will he draw lots of "awwwwws" like Gwionn? Or is he destined for 'always the understudy never the lead' status?
Kwayedza - gorgeous voice and again, lovely face, with a self-assuredness and nobility Oliver could have underneath the grime; a smoothness rather than a hard, 'street' courseness. But is his voice
too rich and adult for this part? How many performances can he do before it breaks and he starts to sound like a little man on stage?
Gwionn - awwwwwwwww! Tiny ragamuffin and a confident little performer. He'd bring a cute yet cheeky quality to Oliver, but his archetypal urchin stature gives him the vulnerability Oliver needs. He does, however, have some tuning and diction problems, which is the main reason he's not in my definitely bracket. And although he looks the part, can he act it? Having said that, he's stood out since day one and would, I reckon, draw a crowd.
Harry - as others have suggested he'd actually suit Dodger a lot because he has a deeper voice and a more knowing style. But if Dodger isn't up for grabs and they're looking for a more street-wise Oliver, then Harry is too talented to pass up. That said, even though they're trying to move away from the saccarine Mark Lester performance, is Harry just
too savvy and larger-than-life for what is essentially a fairly tragic role?
Johnny - I know he's popular on here and he definitely has the vulnerability and 'lost' quality we might expect in Oliver, but I have major reservations: he just isn't animated enough. And sometimes he looks like a bunny in the headlights. But, and this is a tentative but, that could work really well for Oliver; he could be the perfect foil to the far more cocky Dodger. It's a big risk though: that 'lost' quality could mean lost on stage, and the vulnerability could just translate as terror.
Not Oliver
I feel mean to the remaining boys but I guess it's the nature of the beast:
Arthur - I don't know why he's been chosen. He strains his already very low voice, to the point where it's almost a bellow at times, and he's often out-of-tune. In fact, I don't recall ever hearing him sing well. Plus in group numbers he's awkward and seems like he's self-conscious or finding it all a bit of a hoot. Still, maybe that 'naughty' vibe he's got going on is what they're looking for in Oliver?
Alexander - again, I don't think his voice is anywhere near strong enough for the role and I don't know why he's made it to the next round. The week he was picked and did his solo, it was very off-key.
Gareth - I thought about putting him in the 'maybe Oliver' but decided I just haven't seen enough and there are just too many boys stronger. He's better than Arther and Alexander though.
Jordan - my mum's favourite but for me he's too 'stage school'; over-eager with a precocious voice that others have perfectly described as "too strong". He just isn't Oliver for me.
Joseph - looks like he's having a great time, which is the main thing.
Sam - his hair does him no favours but it's the only thing distinguishing him in the line-up. More Little Lord Fauntleroy than Oliver. He does stand out though so maybe he'd be good in Dodger's gang.