Originally Posted by mikey1980:
“Overnight ratings belong to a bygone age. In the multi-channel / catch-up tv world of today, they aren't particularly important.”
Hmm. I think if Doctor Who was smashing it in the overnights people would be rushing here to argue the opposite; it's a convenient safety blanket to argue "well they don't matter anyway".
They do.
The comfort here is that Doctor Who is performing okay in the overnights. Not as well as it used to, and not as well as other shows. BUT if it continues to shed casual viewers then it could repeat the cultural legacy of the mid 80s: a show for a small band of nerds, lacking mainstream appeal.
It's not the case that no-one is watching Doctor Who, but it is the case that it's
consolidating its audience rather than growing it.
Every show, even the biggest, inevitably sees contraction. Too much contraction and you can bet there'll be an impact on scheduling, which impacts on budget, which impacts on quality, which impacts on cultural appeal, which feeds back, etc.
When a show gets a "core" audience regardless, it will be used to buffer against ratings grabbers on rival channels so as to allow newer, untested and/or less successful on catch up programmes to have a fairer chance/room to breathe/, etc. There's a precedent for this approach with Doctor Who when it was put against Coronation Street in the 80s. The argument: well everyone who will watch it, will.
Overnights do matter, and will continue to matter in the years to come — in fact, more so. As audiences inevitably shrink for all 'as live' broadcasts the shows able to buck the general trend to become "appointment viewing" will be given more attention.
Think of overnights as opening weekend box-office sales: they're not always an indicator of overall impact or popularity of success. Some films are growers or do better in DVD sales, etc - but the opening weekend can make or break overall perception of success.