OK. I get that. So, I ask you, do you think the BBC may be concerned slightly about the overnights for The Big Bang? Do you think they may have been hoping for 7 million? It wouldn't have been unreasonable to expect that due to the way they promote the show as "event TV".

I don't want to appear to be argumentative for arguments sake, because as i say it is very decent of you to research figures and facts for our benefit, and the AI's are excellent as you have proven. But AI's alone are not an accurate record of people watching. 1 person could be watching a programme and enjoyed it so much their AI rating is 100%.

But the broadcaster would be very concerned that only 1 person watched it.

Please don't think I'm getting at you. I'm not. I think your posts are fantastic. But you are a damn good conversationalist and it is difficult not to put one's point across to you!

With the BBC's new iplayerBETA it's possible to watch a programme on a computer as it goes out. This is going to affect TV viewing more and more as time goes on. Although other factors like the popularity of DT, sport, the lack of a proper series in 2009, the unusually good weather will have had some influence on viewing, I still maintain that this is offset to some extent by changing viewer habits.

In all honesty I think they wouldn't have expected to get 7 million from the moment they didn't end up having the England game on a Saturday night. The show was left sandwiched between two crappy repeat programmes, with the football coverage on ITV starting midway through the episode. And then a cracking five setter on BBC2 as well!!! They will have been aware of the overnight ratings the show has gotton this year. The Pandoric Opens got 5.9 million. They may have hoped to get around that figure, but under the circumstances, I doubt more than that.

They frequently boast about the overnight figures for sport, live events and big soap events - but those follow very different rules to most scripted TV.


On the day with the biggest live viewing audience of the year, when the whole point is to schedule stuff to be watched live by families, yes.

You can't extrapolate from Christmas to the rest of the year though. Or you'd have to follow through by pointing out that 'Journey's End' got overnights that were nearly 3 million down on those achieved by 'Voyage of the Damned'.


The timeshift figures have been recording PVRs and VCRs since before Doctor Who returned. The increase in timeshift figures takes all of those into account. So you can't explain it by pointing to a decrease in VCR usage.

Around a third of dramas watched by Sky+ owners are now viewed timeshifted, and Sky's own dramas are getting fully half their viewing figures from timeshift. That's where drama on the main TV channels is also heading, and Doctor Who (getting from about a fifth to nearly a third of viewers via timeshifts, not even including iPlayer), is leading the way.

Ok. thanks. I guess as time goes on, evidence towards your PVR/iPlayer theory may come into fruition. I will concede by saying that I will be happy to be put in my place and you can say "I told you so!"

Do you think, that in the event of X-Factor not being shown next autumn, AND the possibility of no recommission of Merlin (because there's no guarantee it will be), Doctor Who next year, may move to a more consistent, pre-Strictly Come Dancing slot? Or, is it more likely that DW will air next spring as usual?

I consider it my role in life to post contextual data that gets roundly ignored by anyone whose thesis it undermines.

well i hope that i will be able to present the pattern that indicates this shift has been on going since series 1 in the next couple of days, so stay tuned....

as for the latter....

I am pretty sure merlin will be back next year, it does a good job in that slot, if rather less well than Doctor Who would probably do. The BBC like the show in this slot because it fills an awkward slot better than anything else could. It might increase it's ratings average by a million or so in the autumn (based on WOM viewing figures) but that isn't certain.

I think after a lengthy break another lengthy break would not be good for the show, tbh, so for me, delaying the next series till the autumn isn't really an option.

I have no real issues with it being on this time of year, but if it were to change I think I'd prefer a Feb start though.

Don't see either happening though.

you should try being me....

Well, at least there's no World Cup next year, and as far as i'm aware, ther'll be no contractual obligations to a certain musical Lord who insisted on the timeslot for his show.....We might at least get a little consistency!

Does Merlin cost as much to make as Dr Who?

I have read your factual and thorough thread inwhich you replied to my concerns. I am grateful to you for posting that info and it certainly did open my eyes a little more.

So Thank you. You are not the great ignored!

we have had some bad luck this year for the show, i must say. i do think it's a shame they didn't plan to air it slightly earlier in retrospect. had it all been over before the world cup i have to say i think it would have been better for the show all in all. Someone implied the BBC had considered having the two parters spread over the saturday/sunday of the same weekend. That could have been a good move.

But yes, with the likely absence of ALW it might be a) slightly later and b) slightly more consistent. But it still won't be the same time every night for a range of reasons.

You're bloody wonderful!

The blind averages for timeshifts go:

Series One - 0.65 million
Series Two - 0.53 million
Series Three - 0.51 million
Series Four - 0.85 million
Specials - 1.32 million
Series Five (so far) - 1.75 million

And for iPlayer:

Series Four - 0.51 million
Specials - 0.70 million
Series Five - 1.37 million

But there a lot of work to be done to pick apart those figures (the percentage of total viewing figures etc.) still to be done.

Still - remakable how well those figures reflect the general rises in PVR and iPlayer usage.

see when you look at this, you can see the incremental change since 2007....interesting stuff!

You do a marvelous job in contextualising the ratings and calming worries.

I only actually jumped in here 'cos I had the data to answer CAMERA OBSCURA's points earlier, 'cos otherwise you've made pretty much any point I would anyway.

I thought I'd try a little comparison:



PVR/DVR/DTR penetration vs. Average Doctor Who Timeshift
[LIST][*]2008 – 20% / 0.85 million
[*]2009 – 27% / 1.32 million
[*]2010 – 44% / 1.75 million[/LIST]

Percentage of TV Timeshifted vs. Average Doctor Who Timeshift
[LIST][*]2005 - 1.2% / 0.65 million
[*]2009 - 5.9% / 1.32 million[/LIST]
It's a bit rough and ready - but nonetheless interesting to see side-by-side.

I think there was a slight lack of advance planning this year, to be honest. BBC One lined up a big Easter Weekend - with the Ashes to Ashes premiere, the Doctor Who premiere, and a Jonathan Creek special - but it put the end of the series in jepoardy it really didn't need.

Doctor Who has in the past benefited from lots of attention in the press. It's best ratings have come from a guest turn by Kylie Minogue or a 'surprise regeneration' that even managed to force its way onto the national news. This hasn't really happened in the latter stages of this series. I think thats less to do with the show, than the news agenda. First, Britains Got Talent steals the entertainment headlines and the press attention on the World Cup has definately made it more difficult to get heard in the past few weeks. Add the weather and some inconsistent schedules, and the result is much lower live viewing (compensated for, to a notable extent, by timeshifts).

I would hope that next years series makes it onto the screens a little earlier in the year. It's sometimes been held back to wait for the BBC's coverage of the Six Nations to finish in March (as that can make Saturday scheduling difficult). However, next years tournament will likely have no matches in primetime BBC One - any games will be off air by 7pm.

With the potential absence of ALW musical shows, I think there's a good opportunity to start Doctor Who at the beginning of March with a reasonably consistent later slot, concluding in May - perhaps on Eurovision night. That way, it would be over before BGT steals the limelight, and before the weather and summer sport becomes too much of an issue either.

The problem with that is it isn't likely to be feasible. They were running things right up to the wire to get Series Five broadcast when it was. The same has happened with previous series. Trying to start showing a series four or five weeks earlier would be close to impossible.

The BBC seem to be a little disappointed with the finale viewing figures:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertain...s/10432096.stm

Difficult meetings for Moffat this week?

Regards,

Cypher

That's the bit I'm just not getting, I understand the timeshifts and all that but why didn't these time shifts effect The Eleventh Hour in such a drastic way as they obviously did with The Big Bang, why haven't they effected the rest of the series in such a big way. especially considering that the finale IS supposedly the event viewing.

The first episode of a new series is just a big pull than the finale.

I'm not dismissing that iplayer gets a million + views (what percentage are repeat to first time views) and adding them to the over nights you get the average to great series figures, which is all fair enough but for a finale of Doctor Who it really is not cutting the mustard, to use a phrase I don't think I have ever used before

The nationals have picked up on this today - obviously comparing final viewing figures with Saturday's overnight. I'm suprised the BBC news website did the same, though!

well there is certainly nothing factually inaccurate in the report. and saying it was a "moderate success" is probably a fair comment. The only issue I'd take is they didn't place it in context, but that in itself is not surprising.

However, that is not an official statement from the BBC saying they expected higher ratings. It's a brief news article put together by the entertainment team that mention the shows ratings in passing while summing up the weekends viewing figures.

If people like me, that follow the show ratings closely, did not expect much higher overnight ratings given the set of circumstances then the BBC, with it's far greater and more indepth range of data will not have either.

Really there is nothing to worry about at all. It may have been picked up in a small way by a couple of papers. Not the first time. Series 1, 2, and 4 all, at various times, had negative stories about ratings run. Even the fine ratings WOM got attracted some negative feedback by the Guardian Media chap who stated the share was too low for the time of year.

Series finale is nowhere near as big a thing as a new Doctor's first episode. Not even close. (Plus all sorts of other factors.)