Me too - and isn't it the AI that's more imortant anyway?

Sorry if my post annoyed you, but it was on topic. It was responding the answer you gave about whether the overnight ratings (ratings thread) have an effect on budget.

Thanks for the info. Sorry to have annoyed.

it didn't annoy me, sorry if you thought thats what I meant, just that I think for me there isn't much else to discuss till we get some more ratings through....

Sweet! I said myself earlier in this thread about the need to wait for actual ratings.

Luv you mutts!

One fear I do have, is even counting the timeshift/iplayer viewings etc. the series saw a massive drop (unless the timeshift claims around 4-5m viewers at the very least). The averages may be similar, but that is held up by the early episodes - the later episodes (especially post The Hungry Earth) have been hit hard in the overnights and the number of viewers catching up haven't bought the figures up even close to The Eleventh Hour's final figure.

I've loved this series, it's been my favourite so far. I just hope that the obvious drop off doesn't continue with the Christmas episode and series 6, and it bounces back.

Here - let me show you something from another forum, that may help reassure you (and put these supposed lost viewers into context):

A Series Two/Series Five comparison

Why Series Two and Five? Because each saw the advent of a new Doctor, each saw a rare decent Summer, and each was affected by sport (including the World Cup). It makes for an interesting comparison.

Series Two (2006) overnight ratings unpacked:

New Earth - 8.0
Tooth and Claw - 8.9 (boosted by following FA Cup match, late, at 19:18)
School Reunion - 7.6
The Girl in the Fireplace - 7.4 (warmest summer period in years starts)
Rise of the Cybermen - 8.6 (boosted by following FA Cup final, late, at 19:23)
The Age of Steel - 6.9
The Idiot’s Lantern - 6.3
The Impossible Planet - 5.9
The Satan Pit - 5.5 (warmest summer period in years hits its peak)
Love & Monsters - 6.2
Fear Her - 6.6
Army of Ghosts - 7.7 (boosted by following England World Cup Quarter Final defeat)
Doomsday - 7.7 (boosted by being followed by Germany v. Poland World Cup match on BBC One)

Summer 2006 was the warmest summer since records began, 350 years earlier. It started in Early May (with 'The Girl in the Fireplace' first affected) and got steadily warmer and nicer from then on, coinciding with a steady slide in ratings that hit its peak around 'The Impossible Planet' and 'The Satan Pit' - when the warmest temperatures were recorded and there was the first major school holiday of the summer (which probably helped knock the overnights below 6 million). Football provided the only boost during this period, otherwise Doctor Who overnights look like a reverse barometer.

Now look at Series Five, consider when the sunny weather began, consider the earlier timeslot (most of Series Two was at 7pm or later), and consider that this time sport has been in the way rather than a boost. Then look at the huge increase in timeshifting since 2006 (PVR penetration has more than doubled since 2008, and timeshifting rose fourfold between 2005 and 2009 - I don't have the 2006 figures, but it would be easy enough to extrapolate them).

Look at the final ratings for Series Two and Five (Tennant's first and Smith's first) side-by-side:

8.62 - 10.08
9.24 - 8.42 (Series Two boosted by football)
8.31 - 8.20
7.90 - 8.59 (Summer starts to hit Series Two)
9.22 - 8.50 (Series Two boosted by football)
7.64 - 7.68
6.76 - 7.55
6.32 - 6.49 (Summer starts to hit Series Five)
6.08 - 7.49 (Height of good weather for Series Two - and school holidays)
6.66 - 6.76
7.14 - 6.44 (Series Five hit by England football build up)
8.19 - ?.?? (Series Two boosted by football)
8.22 - ?.?? (Series Five hit by Wimbledon and football build up; Series Two boosted by being followed by Germany v. Poland World Cup match on BBC One)

Where Series Five did better - underlined. I've not put on every point of interest, just the key ones. To underline the point about the effects of the weather, sport, but also make the point that Smith's opening series, if anything, appears slightly stronger than Tennant's - but that it isn't entirely relevant because, when push comes to shove, they both seem to have had about the same level of keen, interested audience, and for both of them the casuals came in numbers when they were around, and weren't to be seen when there were other things to interest them.

Something of note too - Series Three had the least problems or anomalies of any of the five to date. Relatively consistent weather, mostly decent timeslots, and the only major sporting impact was a boost for 'Gridlock'. It was also, unsurprisingly therefore, the most consistent series to date in terms of ratings (with almost every episode within a million of the series average, and the two that weren't only just outside that margin).

Thanks for the data. It is comforting reading in most aspects bar one.

Series 2: Episode 1 to Episode 13 in overnights a loss of 0.3m. Series 5: Episode 1 to Episode 13 in overnights a loss of c 8m.

Of course, we're still waiting for the final figures for Episode 13, but unless it gains c. 3m it won't match the finale for series 2 (ok, so Series 2 resulted in Rose going forever...until she popped up again...but Series 5 had a cliffhanger of the Doctor locked in, Amy dead, River trapped and the TARDIS exploding) and it's lost 5m on the launch, whereas series 2 kept reasonably consistent throughout the run (the lowest episode down 2.5m in the overnights on the launch) - albeit boosted at times by the football.

why is series 2 boosted by football and series 5 hit by it. How can you possibly know these things.

all series start fat, go thinner in the middle and fatter at the end, like an anti-brontosaurus.

Series 5 has done fine. Not as all conquering as some might hope, but still fine. If it is declines next series, then panic, but until then, it's just pointless fretting.

I have been wondering many things about the ratings of this series. I have considered many elements as other posters have supplied all sorts of facts and figures.

I have come to this conclusion.

Like Series 1 the last series had a mixed reaction. While Matt was a triumph as the Doc (as Ecclestone was for many in series 1), some stories were in honesty a mixed bag. Some achieved great ratings others didn't receive quite so good ratings. An episode that wasn't so much liked may have prevented people from watching it live the following week.

But, like Series 1, there is a Christmas special where to many will feature a new Doctor/Companion etc.

The millions (I suspect it will still rate highly on Christmas Day) who watch it will undoubtedly tune in to the next series too. this may build the audience week in week out as people familiarise themselves again.

That's my theory anyway.

Not really. As I showed - there was a boost at the end of Series Two from bigger available audiences brought by the football, Series Five had no boost and was actively damaged by sport, the weather and the timeslot.

Also - that eight million 'loss' for Series Five is, as well as being a gross simplification, not close to accurate. Even comparing the final figure for episode one to the overnight for episode thirteen, you'd only get 5 million. Compare overnights only and you'd get under 3 million.


Hang on - you read my post, yes? So you can see that the circumstances in which Series Two ended were very different from those of Series Five. That was the whole point of the comparison.


You're mixing the data up. We don't have final ratings for episode 13 yet, but on overnights alone it's only a 3 million difference. Which kind of ignores the point that it's slightly more complicated than that. There are more factors at work than simply the Doctor Who episodes themselves.


OK - so ignoring the series opener (with all the 'new Doctor' curiosity) the lowest episode of Series Five was 2.2 million down on the otherwise highest episode - on overnights.

But, again, the whole point of my post was to say that it just isn't that simple.

Because the data exists to confirm it.

Big football on before Doctor Who, on the same channel, bringing larger available audience = ratings boost.

Sport on opposite Doctor Who, combined with early timeslot and great weather, bringing much smaller available audience and greater competition = ratings hit.

Because not all the viewers that make up the Doctor Who overnight ratings are actively interested viewers, the bigger the number, the more casual viewers there are.

For some reason I thought The Eleventh Hour got 13m in the finals - don't know why. Sorry about that.


OK, so sport affected the overnights, the early start affected the overnights, I can accept that. Usually what you see (and what happened in Series 2) is a mid season lull then a build to the finale. I hope the same happens with The Big Bang and The Pandorica Opens.


Sorry, yes I have. Think I'm getting overtired. I'll wait for the finals to come in before I comment further, and as you say there are other factors at work on the overnights.

Now my brain's working I'll stop worrying so much.

I personally think you might be right there.

There will be people that haven't watched series 5 for whatever reason, or watched some of it but didn't tune in each week.

The Christmas special I expect to get the usual type of rating as I doubt ITV will try to match it so there will be naff all else on. It stands to reason that some of these people will like what they see and start watching when series 6 starts.

Lets just hope the Christmas special is decent.

I cant help but see the connection between falling overnight ratings (people who watched it live) and the earlier time slots. Series finale airs at 6.05pm and gets just 5m...

You can't add in the timeshift number, and make a point that people are watching it in their own time, and then say that series 5 was impacted by the football - timeshift takes account of that impact.

If that point stands, then how have the bookies got any idea?

I think they need Russell t davies , eriously from reading his book etc , why did he leave , i understand DT leaving but Russell wouldnt have the same success in America as Uk as his humour dont carry all that well, Okay Moffatt is good but he lacks that drama and warmth a bit, a bit though the final was cool , he loves the kids though, Moffatt that is but he is more darker , Russell was dark too but less , I am thinking he could have stayed on and written stuff for torchwood, Sarah Jane and Doctor Who here ax:

Of course I can. Timeshift is only likely to take account of those who are actively interested in watching Doctor Who. If, as it appears, Doctor Who has a core audience of c. 6 - 6.5 million (and the BBC's own audience research people have suggested that is the case in the past), then anything it gets above that is made up of casual/'because it is on' viewers. Those are the ones who come and go, giving us the ever shifting ratings over the years, and they generally watch live if they watch at all.

Give them more of a reason to be around (e.g. following major football on BBC One, or transmission in a later timeslot when available audiences are bigger) and the overnight ratings get bigger (to which we can then add timeshift); give them a reason to not be around (beautiful weather, early timeslot) or something more immediately attractive (e.g. live major sporting events) and the overnight ratings fall.

Ignoring iPlayer and repeats for the moment, the equation is, essentially:

Core audience of 6.5 million (overnight + timeshift) + casual audience (available live audience - those watching live events or the competition) = total BBC One/HD audience for Doctor Who

My earlier comparison of Series Two and Five shows this in action about as clearly as anything can... and, again, we know that the BBC audience research people indicated to the RTD production team that this was the viewing pattern.

You are right in at least pointing out that timeshift will take into account some of the core audience being impacted by football (or early slot, or weather etc.), but they can slip back and forth between live and timeshift quite happily it seems. Place Doctor Who in the harshest possible conditions, where the casual audience will be at their smallest, and the core remains quite steady whether they watch overnight or via timeshift - see:
[LIST][*]'The Impossible Planet' (6.32 million) - nearly the hottest part of the warmest summer on record, school holidays[*]'Silence in the Library' (6.27 million) - opposite the 'Britain's Got Talent' finale[*]'The Lodger' (6.44 million) - hot weather, opposite run up to England World Cup game[/LIST]
Obviously for an example of the best case scenarios see any episode on after a major BBC One broadcast football match - apart from the Series Two examples I've given before, in Series Three it happened with 'Gridlock' (on late after a Manchester United FA Cup semi-final) which jumped to 8.0 million on overnights (following 6.8 million the previous week, and with 6.3 million the week after) - and, of course, Christmas Day.

The bookies only one idea - making money. They will do well, getting people to bet on MS leaving as he won't.

They don't need Russell T Davies. End of. And he is still writing for Sarah Jane Adventures, anyway (unfortunately). Doctor Who lasted for twenty six consecutive seasons before Davies, it can do it again after him.

I want an Anti-Brontosaurus!

Here's something that's just occured to me.

Someone further up the thread was saying that this series episodes were a mixed bag, and I agree, though I think that's true of the previous series too.

Once or twice I've started watching an episode, then turned off because I thought it was awful. (Not this series, btw).

If I had one of these BARB thingies, would that count as watching, or not watching?

Because I can never work out how people might know an episode was poor before they have watched it, or at least part of it, especially in a two parter when the first part gets good ratings and the second part doesn't.

This question might sound dim, but it is genuine.

Just looking at the figures, if you compare all the series final ratings averages so far...

Series 1, Eps 1-13: 7.95m
Series 2, Eps 1-13: 7.71m
Series 3, Eps 1-13: 7.55m
Series 4, Eps 1-13: 8.05m
Series 5, Eps 1-11: 7.80m <<Eps 12/13 final ratings still to be added

...they're pretty solid and consistent, not alot of variation at all.

I think once the final ratings for eps 12 and 13 are added in, the average for series 5 will still be less than series 1 and 4, but still higher than series 2 and 3, around 7.75m I'm guessing, give or take. The timeshift for these final two eps is bound to be even bigger than we've seen so far anyway, as it's been rising consistently as the series progresses.

This show is going to be around for a long time yet. Sorry doom-mongers

No, I wondered the same thing, before I read the details on the BARB site. The watched channel is recorded on a minute-by-minute basis and the figure quoted is the average across the whole episode. So, if you were the only person with a BARB box, and you just watched the first 15 minutes, then switched over, the "audience" figures would look something like this:

0-15m: 50million!
15-30m: 0million!
30-45m: 0million
Average show rating: 16.7million.

K

Thank you Kenny, I get it now!

*ding* we have a winner! Also, you know, common sense.

Honestly, what is it with so many supposed fans of the show desperately spinning statistics they don't seem to understand to prove it's doomed? We had it all the way through the RTD years and apparently it's infecting the Moffat era too. No wonder the show runners have learnt to ignore the Internet, if it was up to the more hardcore Doctor Who fan the whole series would be dead (or a niche show on SyFy which is more-or-less the same thing) within a year.

Short version: the ratings are still very very good, the final ratings when they come in will be more than healthy, the audience share is running around a third of all viewers for its slot, the AI figures are consistently good, it's doing superbly well (all things considered, like being on channels with relatively low reach) overseas and will still sell buckets and buckets of merchandise. Just look how quickly tickets were going for the proms and the live shows, the demand for Doctor Who is as healthy as it's ever been. It's been consistently in the top twenty, often top ten, shows for the week and is setting records left right and centre for iPlayer. Every SINGLE statistic points to a show that's healthier than anything on British TV with the possible exception of a few soaps.... for a Sci-Fi family show that's run on teamtimes on Saturday afternoons.

And yet some insist it's doomed............