Originally Posted by PenguinBear:
“But if ALW had saved her the second time, then she probably would have a reprieve from the public for the next one, two shoes. This would mean the chance of two of his favorites being in the bottom 2 highly likely.
Let's say he voted Ashely off.
Then Fran would probalby avoid the bottom 2 for the next two weeks as the public thinks that ALW sees something in Fran. (This is what happened the first time Fran was in the bottom two)
So the following two weeks there is a possibility of getting something like Niahm and Jessie/Samanth (or whoever ALW favors). Then he has a very difficult choice.
If he has say 4-5 favorites he wants these 4-5 to last as long as they can so they have the most television exposure. If one of his favorites leaves early then they don't get exposure which hurts them later when they try to put her as understudy or on the travelling Oliver show.
He really had to get rid of Fran when he had the chance, unfortunatley for him it came at the same time as Ashleygate.”
As much as the whole thing still frustrates me, I think you have explained the situation exactly as it happened.
The nature of ALW's comments to Fran during the live shows were more than enough to show that she was not one of his 'favourites' for the role. I think he did appreciate that she's a good actress (in fact towards the end he only ever referred to her as an actress, not a singer/performer - a warning bell in itself)
I think his concern was partly based on her inconsistency during her first four solo performances, but also he is clearly keen on a 'new', 'raw' and 're-defined' Nancy, and he seemed to regard Fran as almost
too well trained and 'old-fashioned' (his words in her final week).
I'm sure he was also aware though that with her training and experience (and a couple more weeks reprieve to get a handle on her nerves etc) she could well have sorted the pitching issues and kicked into top gear - potentially challenging his 'chosen ones'.
Looking back, it might even have been touch and go that she was saved in week one - but maybe ALW was still unsure at that point as to how his early favourites would perform, and it would have been too risky to lose a professional at that stage.
Part of the reason I was worried about her ending up in the bottom 2 as the weeks went on was because ALW really didn't seem to be 'on-side'. I think, sadly, you're right that he would have saved any of the others over Ashley. I don't believe he saved Ashley out of guilt for what he said to her. He took his chance to 'get rid' of Fran while he could, because of her potential challenge. In fact, I think he would probably have quite happily lost both of them in a double eviction.
After last weekend though, I bet he's wondering whether a saved Fran would have been a much better option than a saved Ashley